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Reports

US stock market, economy and companies update (October 31, 2014)

October 31, 2014, Friday
 Just two days after the Fed ended its QE program, the BoJ surprised everybody this morning by greatly expanding its existing QE program, rocking global markets. The Nikkei gained 4.8% on the session and Nikkei futures continued rising after the close of cash trading. European indices surged higher and look to close at their highs, with both the CAC and the DAX up more than 2% a piece.

Russian stock market daily morning report (October 31, 2014, Friday)

October 31, 2014, Friday
Gas talks ended in Brussels by signing papers, which definitely is in the favor of the Russian market today. CBR session is scheduled today and its results will make a serious effect on ruble dynamics – in case of a significant upping of the base rate, ruble might progress upwards. If not, we probably are to observe a new wave of Russian currency getting weaker.

European stock market, economy and companies update (October 31, 2014)

October 31, 2014, Friday
Risk appetite gets a little help from central banks. Japan BOJ unexpectedly eased its policy further; sends Niikei225 Index to 7 year high and yen to 7-year lows. World largest pension fund Japan GPIF formally announces changes to its allocation model panel approved target allocation changes; to increase domestic stocks to 25% from 12%; raise foreign stocks to 25%; cut domestic bonds to 35% and foreign bonds 15%

UK stock market morning note (October 31, 2014)

October 31, 2014, Friday
 The FTSE 100 is called to open higher this morning following the performances on Wall Street and in Asia with the Nikkei in particular moving ahead after the Bank of Japan announced surprise further stimulus measures which it said was a pre-emptive strike to stoke inflation. Overnight we had domestic economic news from GfK reporting that UK consumers became gloomier in October than in the previous month with the consumer confidence reading coming in below forecast at -2.

Indian stock market daily morning report (October 31, 2014, Friday)

October 31, 2014, Friday
 The S&P BSE Sensex rose 248.16 points or 0.92% to settle at 27,346.33, its record closing high. The index jumped 292.43 points at the day's high of 27,390.60 in late trade, a lifetime high. The index fell 9.52 points at the day's low of 27,088.65 in early trade. The CNX Nifty rose 78.75 points or 0.97% at 8,169.20. The index hit a high of 8,181.55 in intraday trade, a lifetime high for the index. The index hit a low of 8,085.20 in intraday trade.

UK stock market commentary (October , 2014): Just as the Fed takes away the punch bowl

October 31, 2014, Friday
 European equities are set to start on a firm footing following strong sessions in the US and Asia. Following yesterday’s yo-yo session, it seems that the bulls have shaken off their post QE nausea and taken up the mantle again. The pickup in Q3 US GDP yesterday certainly stopped the bears in their tracks and some surprise easing from the BoJ overnight has got the bulls ready to stampede out of the gates this morning. Just as the Fed takes away the punch bowl, the BoJ has turned up with a crate of sake.

News

Global Outlook

The End Of An Era: Is The US Petrodollar Under Threat?

October 31, 2014, Friday
Recent trade deals and high-level cooperation between Russia and China have set off alarm bells in the West as policymakers and oil and gas executives watch the balance of power in global energy markets shift to the East.

The Week That Was

October 30, 2014, Thursday
In the June 26th edition of the Morning Tack, Jeff Saut wrote, “I do believe the VIX bottomed last Friday (6/20/14) with an undercut low, much like the undercut low of October 4, 2011 that we identified as the ‘valuation low,’ and recommended should be bought with the SPX trading back then at 1075.” Well that proved to be fitting timing, since from that 6/20 low to the high on Wednesday 10/15, all the VIX did was shoot up about 200%!

The Fed has to decide how much stimulus (and for how long) falling oil prices will provide to the U.S. economy

October 30, 2014, Thursday
What is the Federal Reserve going to do about falling oil prices? Lower oil prices are a huge stimulus to the U.S. (and global) economy. So, how do they get figured into the Fed’s decision Wednesday on ending the last $15 billion a month in asset purchases under QE3? And, how to they get figured into the Fed’s discussions of when to start raising interest rates?

Solar “Grid Parity” Is Coming

October 30, 2014, Thursday
After years of struggling against cheap natural gas prices and variable subsidies, solar electricity is on track to be as cheap, or cheaper, than average electricity-bill prices in 47 U.S. states -- in 2016, according to a Deutsche Bank report published this week.

Recommendations

Yes Bank 2QFY2015 performance highlights and results update

October 31, 2014, Friday
Yes Bank reported a good set of numbers for 2QFY2015. Its NII grew by 27.4% yoy, aided by 30% growth in loan book as well as due to substantial capital raising to the tune of $500mn. This led to an increase in the NIM to 3.2% as against 3.0% in 1QFY2015.

Tech Mahindra 2QFY2015 performance highlights and results update

October 31, 2014, Friday
For 2QFY2015, Tech Mahindra posted marginally better-than-expected numbers on the top-line front, while the net profit came in below expectations. The company posted a revenue of US$900mn (V/s an expected US$890mn), a qoq growth of 5.2%. Revenue in Constant Currency (CC) terms rose 6.2% qoq. On the operating front, the EBIT margin came in at 17.4% (V/s an expected 17.2%), an expansion of ~220bp qoq, on lower employee costs during the period.