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US stock market, economy and companies update (August 01, 2014)

August 1, 2014, Friday
 Trading is pretty choppy this morning as participants evaluate the July jobs and PCE inflation data, but yesterday's overall slide lower has been arrested. As of writing the DJIA is down 0.15%, the S&P500 is flat and the Nasdaq is down 0.20%. The July US jobs report was not quite as strong as expected, however by any measure the employment situation remains headed in the right direction. Non-farm payrolls were up by 209K, less than expected and below June's 288K figure. Payroll gains averaged 277K for the second quarter and 230K for the first half of 2014, and today's number makes for the longest 200K+ streak of payroll gains since the mid-1990s.

European stock market, economy and companies update (August 01, 2014)

August 1, 2014, Friday
Mix Chinese PMI data overnight China July Manufacturing PMI (govt official): 51.7 v 51.4e; (5th consecutive rise and an 27-month high (Apr 2012); China July Final HSBC Manufacturing PMI: 51.7 v 52.0e (18-month high). Major European Manufacturing PMI readings mixed. USD was the best-performing G10 currency in July.

Russian stock market daily morning report (August 01, 2014, Friday)

August 1, 2014, Friday
Positive data on Chinese PMI in manufacturing industry that have been showing maximum growth rates within the recent 2 years, did not support the markets – the Asian grounds are looking down following S&P 500 that was 2% down. The Russian market will also be under pressure in the morning. A number of important stats is expected on the US labor market- we expect detailed data on the number of jobs outside the agricultural industry and unemployment level.

UK stock market morning note (August 01, 2014)

August 1, 2014, Friday
 The FTSE 100 is called to open lower this morning following the overnight performances on Wall Street and in Asia as investors await a raft of further economic data. Overnight we had the official Chinese manufacturing and HSBC final manufacturing figures out which both recorded readings of 51.7 for July, indicating that the Government's stimulus programme is having a positive impact.

Indian stock market daily morning report (August 01, 2014, Friday)

August 1, 2014, Friday
 Markets succumbed to selling pressure in late trades, amid huge volumes, with financial shares leading the decline following the expiry of July derivative contracts. Further, sales by foreign funds also weighed on sentiment. The 30-share Sensex ended 192 points down at 25,895 and the 50-share Nifty closed 70 points lower at 7,721. Volumes were large because of the expiry of July derivative contracts. Total market turnover stood at Rs 6.79 lakh crore, the third highest so far.

UK stock market commentary (August 01, 2014): Good data good for the bears

August 1, 2014, Friday
 European equities are set to continue their slide as yesterday’s painful session has given traders a hangover. A multitude of negative cues from Russia, weak economic and corporate data, the Fed and even Argentina all conspired to strip away any reason to hold risky assets. Although markets are set to open lower this morning, there may be a brief pause in the carnage ahead of the US jobs data but it’s likely to be an anxious wait. The ‘worst’ case scenario that is getting the bulls trembling is a repeat of last month’s data releases.


Global Outlook

Trains and Boats and Planes?

July 30, 2014, Wednesday
Those of you who know me know that I have had a love affair with boats ever since I was a kid. In my youth it was speedboats on various lakes in Michigan. In my teens, and into my forties, it was sailboats combined with an occasional trawler. In later life, however, it has been strictly powerboats. Currently, we are on a smaller boat, namely a 33’ Wellcraft. Speaking of boats, the newer generation is having an “affair” with Malibu Boats (MBUU/$19.84/Strong Buy), for a multiplicity of reasons, but that’s a discussion for another time.

George Lindsay Forecast Applies Only To The Dow

July 30, 2014, Wednesday
It is important to be aware that George Lindsay admonished his newsletter subscribers that his methods were to be applied only to the Dow Jones Industrials index and not the broader indices. He explained this caveat that using the Dow ("or an even narrower index") will avoid the constant turn-over of individual components in those broader indices.

5 Industries Worried About Peak Oil

July 30, 2014, Wednesday
The debate over the impact of peak oil has been raging for decades. Although few deny that the end of mass oil consumption is drawing nearer, educated estimates now range between 2020 and 2030. But more important than the timeframe of peak oil are its consequences. Some seek to spell the end of life as we know it, so reliant is the world upon black gold. Others, equally extreme in their views, embrace the news, looking forward to a time when humanity will magically clean up its act. The truth is somewhere in the middle.

2014 Earnings Growth in Critical Care Zone

July 28, 2014, Monday
Economic doldrums are setting in as the stock market hits new highs. Fear is rising as measured by the VIX, a popular measure of the market's implied volatility. What fuels this is a tepid earnings reports season. With few signs of improvement in the overall 3% topline revenue growth rate this quarter, stock market valuations are stretching to their limits.


Goodyear India 2QCY2014 performance highlights and results update

August 1, 2014, Friday
For 2QCY2014, Goodyear India (GIL) reported a good set of results. Its top-line improved marginally by 2.5% yoy to Rs.433cr, which is slightly lower than our estimate of Rs.442cr. Raw material cost as a percentage of sales declined by 78bp yoy to 70.7% while other expenses as a percentage of sales declined by 54bp yoy to 13.6%. The EBITDA came in at Rs.45cr, up 10.7% yoy, while margins expanded by 78bp yoy to 10.3%.

ITC 1QFY2015 performance highlights and results update

August 1, 2014, Friday
For 1QFY2015, ITC posted a good set of numbers, both on the top-line and bottom-line front. The top-line was driven by Cigarettes, Agri and other FMCG businesses. The company reported strong EBIT level profit in the Cigarettes business for the quarter.