Reports
US stock market daily report (May 15, 2012, Tuesday)
May 15, 2012, Tuesday
"Collectively, these uncertainties about the future are likely contributing significantly to the tight lending standards in the mortgage market today," Federal Reserve Governor Elizabeth Duke said in a speech Tuesday. "Regardless of what the final contours of the rules are, I think the mortgage market will benefit from having them decided so that business models can be set and investments calibrated." Comments were made by Duke as lenders are being overly conservative when they decide on what loans to make, a situation that is being driven largely by regulatory uncertainty. Contributing to the tightened lending are the uncertainties around litigation risk, mortgage servicing standards, capital requirements and compensation of loan servicers. Duke cited rules being drafted about what mortgages will be exempt from new rules as contributing to the uncertainty of lending practices. A consumer watchdog bureau is in the process of adopting a rule that would identify the criteria and characteristics for 'qualified mortgages' - those deemed by the Dodd-Frank bank reform law that assures a borrower has a reasonable ability to repay the loan. US stock market daily report (May 14, 2012, Monday)
May 14, 2012, Monday
Ina Drew, the woman who ran JP Morgan Chase & Co.’s chief investment office, which incurred a trading loss of more than $2 billion, has decided to retire, becoming the first high-ranking casualty in a scandal that has dented the bank’s reputation and prompted fresh calls for tighter regulation of large financial institutions. In a statement shortly before the stock market opened on Monday, Morgan Chase said that Drew, who has been at the firm for more than 30 years, will retire as chief investment officer - terms of her retirement were not disclosed in the statement. Her departure was widely anticipated after her office suffered nearly a $2 billion trading loss disclosed last Thursday. It has been reported that she may receive $14.65 million of accelerated equity awards depending on the terms of her departure. As J.P. Morgan holds its annual shareholder meeting on Tuesday, her compensation is likely to be the spotlight. Drew, age 55, is reportedly one of the highest paid women on Wall Street. In 1993, Crain’s New York Business named Drew one of the '40 under 40' executives to watch and at that time, she was working for Chemical Bank, which later bought Chase Manhattan Bank. Matt Zames, co-head of global fixed income in the company’s investment bank and head of capital markets in the mortgage bank, will reportedly replace Drew. Executive Mike Cavanagh will oversee a team task force responsible for responding to the firm’s trading loss, which resulted from a soured hedge on credit derivatives. The final scale of the loss remains unclear, with the bank still in the process of unwinding these trading positions. JP Morgan Chase Chairman and Chief Executive Jamie Dimon issued a statement as he praised Drew for her contributions to the bank, saying: “Despite our recent losses in the [chief investment office], Ina’s vast contributions to our company should not be overshadowed by these events.” Dimon has been a vocal opponent of calls for stricter regulation of the banking industry in the wake of the 2008 credit crisis. Also on Monday Dimon said that his bank is 'very strong and well capitalized'. “We will learn from our mistakes,” he added, with pressure mounting on Dimon, in recent days. Over the weekend, Elizabeth Warren, a candidate for the U.S. Senate from Massachusetts, urged Dimon to resign from the board of directors of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, a role in which he advises the Fed on oversight and policy for the industry. “We need to stop the cycle of bankers taking on risky activities, getting bailed out by the taxpayers, then using their army of lobbyists to water down regulations,” said Warren, who helped establish the federal government’s Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, in a statement. US stock market daily report (May 11, 2012, Friday)
May 11, 2012, Friday
By 8:00am ET Friday, J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM:NYSE) shares were sinking, during pre-market trading and were the most active during the session after reporting late Thursday, a $2 billion trading loss that will eat into Q2 results. “Since March 31, 2012, the firm’s Chief Investment Office has had significant mark-to-market losses in its synthetic credit portfolio, and this portfolio has proven to be riskier, more volatile and less effective as an economic hedge than the firm previously believed,” said Chief Executive Jamie Dimon. Dimon said the loss “plays right into the hands of a bunch of pundits out there, but that’s life.” Reportedly, the losses stemmed from trades at the bank’s chief investment office, where a single trader, dubbed the 'London Whale', was reported to have taken large positions for the bank in credit-default swaps. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating whether there were any civil violations around the firms $2 billion trading loss. According to reports, the SEC opened a formal preliminary investigation in recent days into the bank's accounting practices and public disclosures after learning about its trading activities in April. US stock market, economy and companies update (May 16, 2012)
May 16, 2012, Wednesday
European indices traded up into positive territory just before the open of US cash trading. Overnight the Greeks officially named an interim prime minister and both Chancellor Merkel and ECB President Draghi reiterated their support for Greece staying in the euro zone. In addition, Merkel may have vaguely hinted on the possibility of more concessions for Greece in an interview with CNBC, and there was also news that outflows of deposits from Greek banks have slowed (yesterday's slide was blamed to a degree on the circulation of news that more than €1B in deposits had left Greek banks in the last week). However the recirculation of news that the ECB might halt overnight lending and other monetary policy operations to certain Greek banks took US and European indices off their highs midmorning. European stock market, economy and companies update (May 16, 2012)
May 16, 2012, Wednesday
European equity indices opened the session broadly lower, as indices have been pressured by banks. Additionally, resource-related companies opened lower following cautious comments out of BHP about the outlook for commodity prices. Concerns about Greece have continued to weigh on the markets, following reports from yesterday that the country is expected to hold elections in mid-June. Also, Greek banks have been in focus, amid reports that deposit outflows have accelerated following the recent Greek parliamentary elections. In terms of upcoming event risks, the US Fed is due to release the minutes from its most recent policy meeting later today. Also on Thursday's session, Spain is due to sell 2015 and 2016 bonds. Russian stock market daily morning report (May 16, 2012, Wednesday)
May 16, 2012, Wednesday
Trade at the Russian market was inactive yesterday: MICEX added 0.55%, RTS lost 0.07%. After Monday sale on bad news in Greece, market participants decided to wait-and-see. Even the weak data on 1Q 2012 GDP of Italy, which was worse than expected, did not force a new wave of sale. Interest in buying was on the shares of Novatek (+3.1%), Inter RAO (+3%), IRNC. Oil companies shares were for sale: (-2.48% - after the shareholders register closed), preferred shares of Transneft and Tatneft (-10% - after register close). Asian stock market, economy and companies update (May 16, 2012)
May 16, 2012, Wednesday
Asian equities continued their slide for the 6th consecutive day as the global economic outlook becomes more clouded. Greece failed again for another day to form a new government and there is chatter that fresh elections will be held on June 17th. Germany and France both reiterated their desire for their Southern neighbor to remain in the EU and Asian leaders voice their concerns about the impact of EU uncertainty on their own countries. Indian stock market and companies daily report (May 16, 2012, Wednesday)
May 16, 2012, Wednesday
The domestic markets are expected to open in red tracking negative opening in Asian markets. Asian markets turned in a mixed performance yesterday, as worries prevailed that the European debt crisis could spiral out of control and weigh on global growth if Greece were to exit the euro zone and default on its debt. Malaysia stock market and companies daily report (May 16, 2012)
May 16, 2012, Wednesday
Felda Global Ventures Holdings (FGVH) announced that it has signed two agreements with two well-known companies, Netherland-based Louis Dreyfus Commodities and international giant Vitol Group. OSK Research and Hong Leong Investment Bank Research recommended “Buy” call on Kimlun after the company announced its RM148.5 million job to build apartment last week. IOI Corporation announced that it has entered into documentation for the establishment of a euro medium-term note (EMTN) programme with an initial programme size of US$1.5 billion (RM4.62 billion). Forex
- Currency pairs technical review (May 16, 2012)
May 16, 2012, Wednesday
- The situation in Greece is still in investors’ focus
May 16, 2012, Wednesday
- Currency pairs technical review (May 15, 2012)
May 15, 2012, Tuesday
- The dollar rose on fears of aggravating the situation in Europe
May 15, 2012, Tuesday
- Currency market weekly review (May 07 - May 11, 2012)
May 15, 2012, Tuesday
- The Bank of England kept its interest rate unchanged
May 11, 2012, Friday
- Currency pairs technical review (May 10, 2012)
May 10, 2012, Thursday
- The Euro fell on fears of a possible new round of the dept crisis in Europe
May 10, 2012, Thursday
- Currency pairs technical review (May 09, 2012)
May 9, 2012, Wednesday
- A diverse parliament of Greece will not be able to reach a compromise in the formation of the government
May 9, 2012, Wednesday
- Currency pairs technical review (May 08, 2012)
May 8, 2012, Tuesday
- The Euro was driven by the political news today
May 8, 2012, Tuesday
- Currency market weekly review (April 30 - May 04, 2012)
May 7, 2012, Monday
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Recommendations
Dishman Pharmaceuticals 4QFY2012 performance highlights and results update
May 16, 2012, Wednesday
For 4QFY2012, Dishman Pharmaceuticals (Dishman) reported lower-thanexpected sales, while its net profit came in above our expectations. Sales and net profit came in at Rs.350cr and Rs.31cr vs. our expectation of net sales and profit of Rs.383cr and Rs.28cr, respectively. During the quarter, the company’s OPM expanded significantly. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock. CCCL 4QFY2012 performance highlights and results update
May 16, 2012, Wednesday
CCCL posted a mixed set of numbers for the quarter. The company’s revenue came in-line with our expectations, but the company gave a positive surprise at the EBITDA level, which led to higher-than-expected profit for the quarter. CCCL had an order inflow of Rs.403cr during the quarter, taking the order inflow for FY2012 to Rs.3,114cr. The order book currently stands at Rs.5,916cr (2.8x FY2012 revenue). We recommend Neutral on the stock. Ashok Leyland 4QFY2012 performance highlights and results update
May 16, 2012, Wednesday
Ashok Leyland (AL) reported an in-line results for 4QFY2012 led by a strong volume growth of 20.2% yoy (53.7% qoq) aided by increasing contribution from the recently launched light commercial vehicle (LCV) Dost, ~14% of total volumes in 4QFY2012. Due to attractive valuations we maintain our Buy rating on the stock. Federal Bank 4QFY2012 performance highlights and results update
May 16, 2012, Wednesday
For 4QFY2012, Federal Bank reported 38.4% yoy (up 17.7% qoq) growth in its net profit to Rs.238cr, which was in-line with our estimates. Although operating income growth was moderate at 10.7% yoy, lower provisioning expenses (decline of 80.5% yoy) on account of higher recoveries and upgradations boosted the bottom line. We recommend Neutral on the stock. IVRCL Infrastructure 4QFY2012 performance highlights and results update
May 16, 2012, Wednesday
IVRCL Infrastructure (IVRCL) reported disappointing numbers for 4QFY2012, with lower-than-expected performance on all fronts. Order inflow for FY2012 was, however, commendable at ~Rs.10,500cr, given the current scenario. The company’s order book stands at ~Rs.28,000cr (5.6x FY2012 revenue, including L1 projects of Rs.5,400cr). IVRCL Assets and Holdings has sold its Noida land (3 parcels out of 4) and has received cash worth ~ Rs.200cr for the same. Further, the company expects to sell the remaining parcel of land for ~Rs.100cr. This development is positive for the company as it will help to fulfill its equity commitment (~Rs.520cr) towards under construction road BOT projects in FY2013. Monnet Ispat 4QFY2012 performance highlights and results update
May 16, 2012, Wednesday
Robust top-line performance: Monnet Ispat (MIL) reported robust top-line performance for 4QFY2012. The company’s top line grew by 20.4% yoy to Rs.536cr mainly due to increased realizations of sponge iron, which grew by 23.2% yoy to Rs.24,159/tonne. The company’s structural steel sales volumes grew by 25.7% yoy to 21,065 tonnes, while power sales volumes declined by 23.5% yoy to 180mn units. Net realization on power sales grew by 14.3% yoy and 2.7% qoq to Rs.3.6/unit during the quarter. Global Outlook
“Balance, Grasshopper”
May 15, 2012, Tuesday
I received so many requests to put last Tuesday’s verbal strategy comments into written form, and that’s exactly what I have done this morning. To wit, I was always entranced with the 1970’s TV show “Kung Fu” starring David Carradine as Kwai Chang Caine. The show centered on an orphaned American boy (Kwai Chang) that is admitted as a student to the Shaolin temple in China. There his mentor, Master Po, teaches him the ways of the Shaolin priests. In addition to learning the martial arts Kwai Chang, affectionately named “grasshopper,” is also instructed in the ways of life. In one such lesson Master Po says, “Balance, grasshopper, balance” – implying that everything in life needs to be “in balance.” Similarly, investors’ portfolios need to be “in balance,” or more appropriately rebalanced periodically. Bond Bubble?
May 15, 2012, Tuesday
Bubbles come and go. There was the Dutch tulip bubble of the 1600s, the Internet bubble of 2000 and, of course, the housing bubble of 2007. Though we’ve wised up to the mistakes of the past, we have still yet to accurately predict when we’re officially in some kind of bubble economy. And for some investors, the bubble now isn’t in social media stocks or IPOs with insane valuations—it’s in fixed income. Natural Gas
May 15, 2012, Tuesday
It is well known that the price of natural gas has been in free-fall. But, has it bottomed out? Its recent low is US$1.84/mmbtu on April 20th. It is now at US$2.36/mmbtu, an increase of 28% in exactly three weeks. Here is the chart since January 1, 2012. Not very revealing: just generally down. The next chart shows the ratio of the price of oil to natural gas since January 2011. Until natural gas’s collapse that accelerated at the beginning of October 2011, the ratio remained fairly steady around 20.00x – 22.00x. “Toto, I have a feeling we’re not in Kansas anymore.”
May 9, 2012, Wednesday
While most people know “The Wizard of Oz” as one of the most popular films ever made, what is little known is that the book was based on an economic and political commentary surrounding the debate over “sound money” that occurred in the late 1800s. Indeed, L. Frank Baum’s book was penned in 1900 following unrest in the agriculture arena due to the debate between gold, silver, and the dollar standard. The book, therefore, is supposedly an allegory of these historical events, making the events easier to understand. In said book, Dorothy represents traditional American values. The Scarecrow portrays the American farmer, the Tin Man represents the workers, and the Cowardly Lion depicts William Jennings Bryan. Recall that at the time Mr. Bryan was the official standard bearer for the “silver movement,” as well as the unsuccessful Democratic presidential candidate of 1896. Interestingly, in the original story Dorothy’s slippers were made of silver, not ruby, implying that silver was the Populists’ solution to the nation’s economic woes. Meanwhile, the Yellow Brick Road was the gold standard, and Toto (Dorothy’s faithful dog) represented the Prohibitionists, who were an important part of the silverite coalition. The Wicked Witch of the West symbolizes President William McKinley; and the Wizard is Mark Hanna, who was the chairman of the Republican Party and made promises that he could not keep. Obviously, “Oz” is the abbreviation for “ounce.”
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