Commodities Archive

Oil and natural gas daily review (November 6, 2009)

U.S. crude oil futures ended lower on Thursday, snapping a three-day rally, on worries about weak oil demand as the economic outlook remained cautious despite a decline in new claims for jobless benefits. NYMEX natural gas futures, backed by a neutral weekly inventory report, ended higher, but soft cash prices, fairly mild U.S. weather forecasts and a still-struggling economy continued to limit the upside.

Industrial metals daily review (November 6, 2009)

Industrial metals remained moderately lower into the close on Thursday, falling on demand concerns following a huge inventory rise, but the downside was buffered by better-than-forecast U.S. economic data and a weaker dollar.

Gold and silver daily review (November 6, 2009)

Gold futures ended $2 higher Thursday after approaching $1,100 an ounce as a Wall Street rally boosted investor sentiment across the board. Silver also ended slightly up on COMEX.

Nymex crude oil prices closed at $79.70/bbl on Thursday

Crude oil prices came under pressure on Thursday as prices faced resistance above $80/bbl. Oil prices touched a high of $81.06/bbl this week as a decline in inventories coupled with optimism that fuel demand will increase helped support upside. The US Energy Department weekly inventory report showed this week that oil inventories declined, thereby giving hopes of a rebound in demand.

Spot Gold prices ended in the red, closing below $1,090/oz

Spot Gold prices came under pressure yesterday as the yellow metal has raced too far too fast and profit-booking at higher levels is inevitable. We expect gold prices to face pressure on the downside as negative labour data from the US could reduce risk appetite and bring in profit-booking further. Spot Gold prices have gained 24% on a year-on-year basis and the yellow metal touched a high of $1,097.45 this week.

Agro commodities daily review: India and other countries (November 5, 2009)

Spices complex continue to remain vibrant with Turmeric hitting upper circuits in yesterday's trading session. Soft commodities are back in focus as declining carry forward stock, weather abnormalities and good export demand has caused sharp upside in spices complex. Chana futures surged during last trading session but erased its gains during later part of the day and ended just 0.50% up. Guar complex traded firm backed by strong fundamentals. Wheat futures witnessed profit booking in last trading session. Oilseeds complex displayed some strenght and ended in green territory zone during last trading session. Plam oil too displayed some firmness backed by global cues.

Oil and natural gas daily review (November 5, 2009)

U.S. crude oil futures ended up on Wednesday, though well below the day's highs, buoyed by an optimistic economic outlook from the Federal Reserve and a surprise weekly drawdown in crude inventories. U.S. natural gas futures ended lower on Wednesday, amid concerns over record high inventories, the struggling economy and forecasts for fairly mild, above-normal temperatures in the coming days.

Base metals daily review (November 5, 2009)

Industrial metals futures ended mostly higher on Wednesday, with support from a dip in the dollar after Fed kept the inter - bank lending rates unchanged. The growth prospects announced by Fed and thereby expectations of an improved demand also lent some support to this complex.

Gold and silver daily review (November 5, 2009)

Gold reached a record high on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve left near-zero benchmark U.S. interest rates unchanged, prompting a sell-off of the dollar as investors looked elsewhere for higher-yielding assets. Silver outperformed gold, gaining over 1.5 percent.

Nymex crude oil prices closed above the $80/bbl mark on Wednesday

Crude oil prices gained 1% on Wednesday, ending with gains of 1% after government inventory data showed an unexpected decline in US crude inventories. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed crude inventories decline by 4 million barrels in the world's biggest consumer in the week to October 30.

Spot Gold prices hit a record high of $1,097/oz on Wednesday

Spot Gold hit a record high for a second straight day on Wednesday, moving within striking distance of $1,100/oz as the dollar dropped broadly after the Federal Reserve said it intended to keep interest rates low for some time. The dollar weakness against the euro and a basket of major currencies added to momentum triggered by India's purchase of 200 tons of gold from the International Monetary Fund. In terms of gold exchange holdings, US ranks the first with holdings of 8,134 tonnes, followed by Germany with reserves of 3,412 tonnes and IMF holdings of 3,216 tonnes.

Agro commodities daily review: India and other countries (November 3, 2009)

Spices complex has been moving up as domestic demand continues to remain supportive and exports continue to encourage traders. Pulses and grains complex traded in green territory yesterday. Chana and maize futures rose by almost 3% in Saturday's trading session. Guar complex too ended tad higher. Wheat futures demonstrated a huge rally due to lower arrival in Delhi spot market. Oilseeds complex traded in a mixed in Saturday's trading session backed by global clues.

Base metals ended on a mixed note on Monday

Base metals ended on a mixed note on Monday with an air of caution pervading the complex at the start of a fresh month, and prices not fully responding to potential upside drivers such as a tumbling dollar, firmer equities and a stream of positive US data. Bullish US economic data arrested a mid-afternoon drift - the September ISM Manufacturing PMI data came in at 55.7 - above the expected 53.1 and building on the previous month's reading of 52.6 - while home sales data jumped to 6.1 percent from anticipated growth of 0.2 percent. Construction spending and ISM manufacturing price data also came in better than expected at 0.8 percent and 65 respectively.

Spot Gold prices ended higher on the back of a weaker dollar

Spot Gold prices traded higher on Monday and returned close to record highs as a weaker dollar supported prices on the upside. The yellow metal touched a high of $1,062/oz yesterday as the dollar slipped ahead of a US Interest rate decision. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Monday that it sold 200 tonnes of gold to the Reserve Bank of India for $6.8 billion, executing its long-planned bullion sale that had threatened to slow the rally in gold prices. The IMF sale is part of an agreement struck earlier among IMF member countries to sell 403.3 tonnes of the body's gold stocks to diversify the Fund's sources of income and to increase low-cost lending to poor countries. The fact that the IMF has sold gold to Indian indicates that there would be fewer official sales by the IMF on the market. This could be a positive to the gold market.

Nymex crude oil prices ended in the green to close at $78/bbl

Crude oil prices rose on Monday as data showed that global manufacturing expanded, indicating that demand for fuel could rise. Upbeat manufacturing reports from the US, China and Europe lifted sentiment in the financial markets. A decline in the dollar also provided stimulus to the upside as it made the commodity look attractive for holders of other currencies. Though fundamentally there has not been a major improvement in the demand scenario as of now. But prospects of a rise in demand on the back of strong manufacturing data could help crude oil prices traded with a positive bias. Oil prices could face resistance around $80/bbl levels.

Oil and natural gas daily review (October 30, 2009)

U.S. crude oil futures ended more than 3 percent higher on Thursday as data showing the U.S. economy grew in the third quarter for the first time in a year spurred fresh hopes for higher oil demand. Natural Gas ended higher on Thursday, buoyed by a sharp run up in crude and a government report showing a lower-than-expected weekly inventory build.

Base metals daily review (October 30, 2009)

Industrial metals rallied into the close on Thursday, after government data showing the U.S. economy grew in the third quarter for the first time in more than a year dented safe-haven dollar demand and improved the metal's prospects.

Gold and silver daily review (October 30, 2009)

Gold rose toward $1,050 an ounce on Thursday, gaining 2 percent after data showing optimistic U.S. economic growth knocked the dollar and sent Wall Street into a rally mode. Silver too rose in line with gold, gaining over 2.5 percent on COMEX.

Base metals accelerated on Thursday as bulls took charge after US GDP data indicated 3.5% growth

Base metals accelerated on Thursday as bulls took charge after US GDP data indicated 3.5% growth. Better-than-expected economic data triggered short-covering across the board. The dollar index weakened and provided additional upside support.

Spot Gold prices gained 1.6% as the dollar slipped

Spot Gold prices gained 1.6% as the dollar dropped against the euro and as Wall Street rallied after data showed that the US economy grew for the first time in more than a year. Risk appetite in the financial markets rose and led to a weaker dollar that supported the upside in the yellow metal. Gold prices strengthen in a negative interest rate environment and as currencies witness depreciation. Gold prices had recently risen in tandem with equities and also as a weaker dollar made the yellow metal look attractive for holders of other currencies. Bullion's unusual link to the stock market was also driven by economic uncertainties. US GDP for the third quarter rose 3.5 percent, beating a consensus forecast of 3.2 percent and more than offsetting weekly US jobless claims, which came in at 530,000, higher than the forecast 522,000.

Nymex crude oil prices gained 3.1% yesterday

Crude oil prices gained sharply yesterday and touched a high of $80.46/bbl as strong US GDP data pushed prices higher. The US economy grew in the third quarter, putting an end to the recession that affected demand for crude oil. The positive economic growth data spurred optimism that fuel demand could increase as the world's largest economy has moved out of the worst economic recession. On the back of this positive data, oil prices gained 3.1% yesterday, the most in two weeks as the world's largest energy consuming nation expanded at a 3.5% annual pace between July to September.

Oil and natural gas daily review (October 29, 2009)

U.S. crude oil futures ended more than 2 percent lower on Wednesday, hit by government data showing a surprise increase in gasoline inventories last week and a stronger dollar. New York Mercantile Exchange natural gas futures ended sharply lower on Wednesday, with a steep slide in crude, mild near-term weather and concerns about record high storage and a weak economy driving November to a weak expiration.

Base metals daily review (October 29, 2009)

Industrial metals settled in a negative zone on Wednesday, under pressure from an extended bounce in the dollar and sliding equities after a surprising drop in new home sales raised doubts about the strength of the economic recovery. U.S. copper futures closed at a 1-1/2 week low on LME.

Gold and silver daily review (October 29, 2009)

Gold prices ended lower on Wednesday, hitting 3-week lows and breaking below $1,030 per ounce, as a resurgent dollar against the basket of currencies eroded the precious metal's standing as an alternative asset. Silver lost more than gold, falling by over 1 percent on COMEX.

The base metals pack witnessed pressure on the downside on Wednesday

The base metals pack witnessed pressure on the downside on Wednesday as a stronger dollar put pressure on prices, making them look expensive and unattractive for holders of other currencies. Equities markets also tumbled following poor US housing data and disappointing earnings data. Copper led the way, dropping back below $6,500 per tonne. But zinc stood out as the worst performer, closing 5.3 percent lower, followed by nickel and tin, both of which were down more than 4 percent.

Spot Gold prices slipped below $1,030/oz yesterday as strength in the dollar put pressure on prices

Spot Gold prices decline more than 1 % and made a closing below $1,030/oz on Wednesday. This fall in prices is the longest slide since March. Prices came under pressure as a stronger dollar index curbed demand for the precious metal as an alternative investment. The greenback was up for the fifth straight session against a basket of major currencies. The recent rally in gold was mainly backed by a weakening dollar and even slight strength in the dollar could prove to be bearish for gold. A rise in risk aversion led to lower demand for higher-yielding and riskier investment assets. Investors shied away from such investments and moved to the dollar as a safe-haven. The precious metal had also taken buying cues from fast growing optimism over growing economy that fuelled inflation concerns.

Nymex crude oil prices ended in the red to close at $77.46/bbl

Crude oil prices came under pressure on Wednesday as a rise in US crude and gasoline inventories raised concern that fuel demand was yet to recover. Crude oil prices slipped 2.6%in yesterday's trade and touched a low of $77.06/bbl as inventories of crude oil rose 778,000 barrels to 339.9 million in the week ended 23rd October. US gasoline stockpiles climbed 1.62 million barrels last week. Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, declined 2.13 million barrels to 167.8 million. Inventories were 29 percent higher than the five-year average for the week. Refineries operated at 81.8% of capacity, up 0.7% from the previous week.

Oil and natural gas daily review (October 28, 2009)

U.S. crude oil futures extended the day's highs in post-settlement trading on Tuesday after industry data showed a surprise large drawdown in domestic crude inventories last week. Natural gas futures, backed by firmer crude oil prices, ended slightly higher on Tuesday, but record high storage, a weak economy and mild weather this week helped limit the upside.

Base metals daily review (October 28, 2009)

Industrial metals gave way to currency related liquidation pressures on Tuesday, after weak U.S. consumer confidence bolstered the greenback's safe haven appeal and cast doubts over the pace of economic recovery.

Gold and silver daily review (October 28, 2009)

Precious metals settled lower on Tuesday after hitting three-week lows during a session that saw the dollar rise on weak U.S. consumer confidence data. Silver witnessed a sharp fall on Tuesday, sliding by over 2.5 percent on COMEX.

Nymex crude oil prices ended in the green on Tuesday

Crude oil prices ended in the green on Tuesday after the American Petroleum Institute reported yesterday that crude stockpiles in the U.S. declined 1 percent to 339.5 million last week. The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index also showed that prices increased from the prior month. However, the upside in oil prices above $80/bbl was capped by a stronger dollar.

Base metals were tempered by profit-taking on the LME on Tuesday

Base metals were tempered by profit-taking on the LME on Tuesday as a mixed round of US data raised risk aversion and boosted the dollar and investors became less enamoured with the commodity sector. Of the metals, copper and lead finished in the minus column, as did aluminium, retreating from fresh two-month highs, while other metals closed around flat from Monday.

Spot Gold prices close below $1,040/oz on Tuesday

Spot Gold prices came under pressure on Monday and closed at $1,038/oz as a stronger dollar put pressure on prices. Strength in the dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities look expensive for holders of other currencies. Consumer confidence data form the US came on the negative side and that led to risk aversion in the financial markets. Demand for higher-yielding and riskier investment assets declined and markets witnessed a rise in demand for the dollar. We could now start witnessing some strength in the dollar as uncertainty over the global economic situation still prevails. The recent rally in gold prices was mainly backed by a weaker dollar and even slight strength in the currency could put a cap on the upside in the yellow metal.

Oil and natural gas daily review (October 27, 2009)

U.S. crude oil futures ended more than 2 percent lower on Monday as the dollar strength after an early fall coupled with lower equities, prompted sell off in crude oil. U.S. natural gas futures ended down nearly 6 percent on Monday, pressured by softer cash gas in the face of mild Northeast and Midwest weather this week.

Base metals daily review (October 27, 2009)

Industrial metals closed lower on Monday, coming under pressure from a late rally in the U.S. dollar that helped drag the metals away from their highs, despite earlier support from data showing hefty imports of the metal

into China.

Gold and silver daily review (October 27, 2009)

Gold prices fell to their lowest level in more than two weeks on Monday, taking a cue from currencies as the dollar jumped 1 percent against the euro, with weak physical demand for the precious metal also weighing. Silver fell more than gold, shedding over 2.5 percent on COMEX.

Nymex crude oil prices slumped sharply by 2.3% on Monday

Crude oil prices declined sharply by 2.3% on Monday as a rebound in the dollar proved fatal for the dollar-denominated commodity. We has mentioned in yesterday's report that the commodity's fundamentals may not be able to support the rally in prices, it was only the dollar factor that helped crude oil prices find support above $80/bbl in the last few days. Strength in the dollar pulled crude oil prices lower yesterday and the commodity closed at $78.68/bbl. A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities look expensive for holders of other currencies and this prompted a sell-off in oil. Risk aversion was the main reason behind a rise in demand for the dollar. Last week, crude oil prices surged to a one-year high of $82/bbl at a faster pace than a recovery in demand.

Base metals declined on Monday as risk aversion in the financial markets boosted the dollar

Base metals declined on Monday as risk aversion in the financial markets boosted the dollar and pushed base metal prices lower. The appeal of riskier assets such as commodities waned off as the dollar posed strength. A bounce back in the dollar was seen as talks of further banking credit downgrades sparked a flurry of risk aversion. Copper and Zinc retreated from cycle highs, while Aluminum and Tin reversed from peaks last seen during the summer months.

Gold hits 2-week low and closes under $1,040/oz

Spot Gold prices declined to their lowest level in more than two weeks on Monday losing ground by 1.4%. The yellow metal closed below $1,040/oz as the dollar bounced back against the Euro. Strength in the dollar makes gold look unattractive and expensive for holders of other currencies. Weak physical demand also weighed on the commodity. Yesterday's strength in the dollar prompted a sell-off in riskier investment assets. There was no economic data release from the US yesterday and gold prices took cues from the movement in the dollar. On a daily basis the relationship between gold and the dollar is very strong. Gold prices had outperformed in the last few days and broke the psychological mark of $1,000/oz mainly on the back of dollar weakness, which made the metal look attractive for holders of other currencies.

International commodities update for October 26, 2009

The Dollar Index fell in today's trade as South Korea's fastest economic growth in seven years coupled with better-than-expected earnings data indicated that the global economic recovery is accelerating. This drove Copper prices to a 13-month high today. Risk appetite is rising in the financial markets today and copper prices could trade higher in the short-term. The red metal traded higher by 1% till 11 a.m. GMT as the Dollar Index slipped 0.2% and made the red metal look attractive for holders of other currencies. Strong Chinese data also pushed base metal prices higher - China's imports of refined copper bounced back in September, rising 28.7% on the previous month to 282,828 tonnes after declining for two straight months following a record high of 378,943 tonnes in June.

Commodities report for October 26, 2009

Spot Gold prices traded lower last Friday and traded range bound overall as the rally went out of steam. Though the weakness in the dollar persisted, markets found it difficult to pull off higher. In the near term we expect the dollar to witness downside and this factor could support gold prices. Fundamentally, demand has not picked up sharply but factors like economic optimism coupled with a fractured state of the dollar are helping the yellow metal trade higher. The base metals pack made sharp gains in the last week as a weaker dollar coupled with economic optimism helped push prices higher. Rising warehouse inventories in base metals failed to knock Copper and Zinc out of their upward stride. Most metals were trading around multi-month highs, with the complex carried higher by a combination of bullish sentiment, a weaker dollar and steadier equities. Zinc prices gained a whopping 10.5% on the LME last week and raced higher to fresh 17-month peaks as the metals complex continued its broad advance. Crude oil prices gained a whopping 2.5% in the last week as a weaker dollar coupled with economic optimism led the commodity higher. However, fundamentally prices do not have much support on the upside as demand has not recovered significantly. Despite a slow recovery in demand prices gained and found support around $80/bbl as a weaker dollar made the commodity look attractive for holders of other currencies. Also, a boost in risk appetite has increased demand for higher-yielding and riskier investment assets.

Oil and natural gas daily review (October 26, 2009)

U.S. crude oil futures ended down for a second day in a row on Friday as worries about the pace of economic recovery and weak oil demand amid bulging stockpiles pressured the market, after prices jumped to a 2009 high this week. U.S. natural gas futures settled slightly lower following weaker cash gas, record high inventories and a quiet 2009 hurricane season.

Base metals daily review (October 26, 2009)

Industrial metals continued upside move on Friday Copper as upbeat data in the United States, China and Europe last week reinforced optimism that economic recovery would boost metals demand. Copper climbed on Friday to its highest level in 13 months on LME.

Gold and silver daily review (October 26, 2009)

Gold futures ended lower in choppy trade on Friday, reversing gains from earlier in the session as the dollar rebounded against a basket of major currencies after an optimistic U.S. housing report and bleak U.K. economic data. Silver fell more than gold on COMEX on Friday, losing over 1.5 percent.

Base metals weekly review (October 16-23, 2009)

The base metals pack made sharp gains in the last week as a weaker dollar coupled with economic optimism helped push prices higher. Rising warehouse inventories in base metals failed to knock Copper and Zinc out of their upward stride. Most metals were trading around multi-month highs, with the complex carried higher by a combination of bullish sentiment, a weaker dollar and steadier equities. Zinc prices gained a whopping 10.5% on the LME last week and raced higher to fresh 17-month peaks as the metals complex continued its broad advance. Apart from weakness in the dollar, zinc is also being supported by consistently falling inventories as LME stocks have fallen for 16 days in a row. Weakness in the dollar made base metals look attractive for  holders of other currencies. Investors continued to dump the US currency, instead placing bets on riskier assets such as shares and commodities, enthused on the whole about a global economic recovery as US earnings season unfolds. In the case of copper, the news of supply constraints is also providing support as wage negotiations in the copper belts of Chile and Peru are now in progress.

Is gold overvalued to crude oil? Long- and short-term analysis of gold

The crude oil market has lost most of its popularity since it is no longer near $150 per barrel (no longer do oil-related topics dominate the main financial websites), but nonetheless I’m sure that nobody can deny crude oil’s importance in today’s globalized economy. It is vital for both businesses and individual consumers, as fuels are derived from it. Most of us need to drive and purchase goods that also need to be transported to us directly or indirectly.

Oil and natural gas daily review (October 23, 2009)

U.S. crude oil futures ended lower on Thursday as the dollar rebounded and as traders pocketed profits after a rally to $82 a barrel, highest in a year, on Wednesday. Natural gas futures ended lower on Thursday despite an attempt to rally after a neutral weekly inventory report, pressured by Wednesday's downside reversal and lingering concerns about high storage and sluggish demand.

Base metals daily review (October 23, 2009)

Industrial metals closed slightly down as a firmer dollar weighed on values and upbeat economic data from China was met with a cautious market reaction. Copper was off its 14-months high, losing some points.

Gold and silver daily review (October 23, 2009)

Gold prices settled about 0.5 percent lower on Thursday, after seesawing with the movement in the dollar. The U.S. dollar gained some strength early in the session as investors turned to it after the release of worse-than-expected jobless claims numbers. However, it pared the gains on the release of strong financial numbers by the U.S. corporates which enhanced the risk appetite of investors.

Oil and natural gas daily review (October 22, 2009)

U.S. crude oil futures ended on Wednesday above $81 a barrel, the highest in a year, lifted by government data showing an unexpectedly large drawdown in gasoline stockpiles last week. Natural gas futures, pressured by selling after four straight up days, ended lower on Wednesday, but concerns about record high storage and fairly mild weather also weighed.

Base metals daily review (October 22, 2009)

Industrial metals remained subdued earlier in the session but witnessed a significant bounce back later on Wednesday as further weakness in the dollar against the basket of major currencies prompted fresh buying in this complex. Lead was clearly the winner for the day, rising by over 6 percent.

Gold and silver daily review (October 22, 2009)

Gold prices fell earlier in the session but clawed back above $1,060 an ounce Wednesday as oil rallied and the euro rose above $1.50 for the first time in 14 months after U.S. corporates came out with better than expected earnings report. Silver outperformed gold, rising by 1.52 percent.

Oil and natural gas daily review (October 21, 2009)

Crude futures ended lower on Tuesday pressured by weaker U.S. equities due to disappointing housing and inflation data and as the dollar's bounce dented investment interest. It extended losses in post-settlement trading on Tuesday after industry inventory data showed that domestic crude oil stockpiles rose more than expected last week.

Base metals daily review (October 21, 2009)

Industrial metals closed mixed, paring early gains after a recovery in the dollar led to profit taking in this complex. Copper hit 13-month peaks on Tuesday but settled lower against the last close on profit-taking.

Gold and silver daily review (October 21, 2009)

U.S. gold futures cut early gains to end slightly higher on Tuesday as the dollar turned higher, denting bullion's status as a hedge against a falling greenback. Silver outperformed gold as it rose by over 1 percent on COMEX.

Oil and natural gas daily review (October 20, 2009)

U.S. crude oil futures gained for the eighth consecutive day on Monday, finishing at yet another one-year high as a weakened dollar supported investment flows. New York Mercantile Exchange natural gas futures ended higher on Monday, backed by firmer physical prices despite record high inventories, a struggling economy and fairly mild weather forecasts this week that should slow demand.

Base metals daily review (October 20, 2009)

Industrial metals rose sharply on Monday on fresh buying as the dollar held near 14-month lows against the euro. Copper surged to its highest level in over a month on Monday, with strong investment money flows into the complex and talk about an end to consumer destocking feeding through to the price surge.

Gold and silver daily review (October 20, 2009)

Gold rose by over 0.50 percent on Monday, as a dollar drop boosted bullion's appeal as a hedge against the weakening value of paper assets due to currency depreciation. Silver too rose in line with gold, gaining just over 0.5 percent.

Breakout or fakeout? The analysis of gold in currencies other than USD

In one of the previous essays I've drawn Readers' attention to the fact that gold has now decisively broken above the $1,000 level, and that this profound action has important implications for all gold and silver investors. I have received many e-mails from investors (for which I am thankful) and several of them asked about the price of gold in currencies other than gold. Therefore, this week I will provide you with analysis of gold with emphasis on its price in currencies other than U.S. Dollar.

Oil and natural gas daily review (October 16, 2009)

Crude oil hitting a fresh 2009 peak, after the EIA showed an unexpected drop in US gasoline and distillate inventories. But reports suggested the drop in US oil product supply did not essentially reflect better demand. Rather, the key cause for the draw was due to a steep decline in refinery utilization rates (to 80.5%) - as high levels of product inventories enabled refiners to close capacity for maintenance.