Forex Archive

Daily Forex Analysis (May 05, 2010)

European markets tumbled yesterday, led by a sharp decline in Spain, shaking investor confidence and sending the Euro to a new one-year low against the U.S Dollar. The 16-nation single currency hit $1.29646, as concerns grew that the EU-IMF ?110 billion aid package for Greece will fail to contain the region’s debt crisis. The Euro-Zone governments and the IMF had hoped that this bailout package would sooth investor’s worries over high levels of sovereign-debt levels in Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland. Instead it had the opposite effect –the fear of “contagion” rapidly spreading throughout the day as markets remained unconvinced that the package will restore Greece’s solvency. The 16-nation single currency fell for a third day in a row against the greenback as the EUR closed at $1.29646, down 1.76% from the day’s opening price.

Daily Forex Analysis (May 04, 2010)

The U.S Dollar rose against the Euro and Yen yesterday on growth in U.S. manufacturing and doubts about Greece's ability to honor a pledge for further austerity measures in return for an aid package. The Euro continued to fall against the U.S Dollar yesterday as longer term concern over the Euro-Zone sovereign debt contrasted with solid U.S economic data. The U.S data, which showed a strong reading in manufacturing and construction spending, illustrate a U.S economy that continues to drag itself out of the worst recession since the Great Depression. This compares with the Euro Zone where investors remain worried about the implementation of the unprecedented ?110billion aid package for Greece.  The EUR/USD closed at 1.31974 yesterday, after hitting a low of 1.31530.

Currency pairs technical review (May 04, 2010)

EURUSD: The pair declined to support level at 1.3229. GBPUSD: The pair is probably drawing Flag.USDCHF: The pair is trying to close above  trend line and Moving Average. USDJPY: The pair is trying to reach Moving Average (500) at 94.90. AUDUSD:The pair needs to be above 0.9336 for being able to reach 0.9771.

Currency market weekly review (April 26-30, 2010)

The euro rate fluctuations on Monday and during the whole following week were totally a result of the Greek issue. After the announcement of the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, that the funds would not be allocated unless Greece would not follow the strict plan aimed to reduce the country’s budget deficit, the euro rate dropped significantly. But then the euro received some support from the statement of the ECB member committee, Axel Weber, who mentioned the strength of the euro currency and no risk of its collapse. At the beginning of the trading week the sterling received support from different sources. According to the published information, the Hometrack Housing Survey showed its growth for 0,2% in April. In addition, the positive political situation in Great Britain before the upcoming elections had a strong influence on the sterling dynamics. And the GBP/USD pair demonstrated its maximums at the level of $1,5495.

The new help package for Greece might amount to 100 billion euros. The drop of the euro was temporarily suspended

Euro: The positive information regarding the negotiations of the EC and the IMF and discussions regarding offering Greece additional financing supported the euro. US Dollar: The budget problems of the other Euro-zone countries continued to increase the demand for the shelter-currencies. British Pound: The political instability of Great Britain continued to influence the sterling dynamics. Japanese Yen: Against the background of the Euro-zone problems. Oil: Due to the time-out in the growing concerns over the Greek budget crises.

Daily Forex Analysis (April 30, 2010)

The euro rose on Thursday, rebounding from a one-year low the previous day on hopes a bail-out plan for debt-stricken Greece would be finalized soon. Gains were limited, however, as details of the Greece package were thin, leaving uncertainties about the timing and implementation of any deal. Germany's largest opposition party said it would move quickly to approve German participation, while European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said the European Union should complete talks "within days”. However, Rehn said he still could not provide details of the deal, which he said were "conditional on fiscal consolidation."

The Standard & Poor's agency reduced the rating of Spain and indicated a negative forecast.

Euro: The speculations regarding the possible increase of the financial support package for Greece rendered temporary support to the euro. US Dollar: According to the information, that was released on Wednesday, the FRS decided to leave the principal rates unchanged at the previous level of  0.25%. British Pound: The sterling demonstrated its decrease against the background of the general instability in Europe. Japanese Yen: The USD/JPY pair traded in the range of Y93,00-Y94,30. New Zealand Dollar: According to the data, that was released on Wednesday. Australian Dollar: The increased inflation rate in Australia influenced the market participants’ expectations for increasing of the principal rate, and the Australian dollar grew against the US dollar. Oil: The pessimistic moods of the market participants had a negative influence on the oil rate. Gold: The demand for the gold grew and the rate of the “yellow metal” reached the $1171.80 mark per ounce.

Daily Forex Analysis (April 29, 2010)

The Euro hit a new 12 month intraday low yesterday after Standard & Poor’s downgraded its debt rating on Spain, compounding sovereign debt fears just as a resolution to Greece’s aid package seemed imminent. The Euro traded at as low as $1.51240 as concern that Europe’s deficit crisis may widen damped the appeal of assets in the 16-nation region. A cut to Spain’s credit rating yesterday, coming after downgrades this week to Portugal and Greece exasperated fears that the Euro Zones debt crisis is spreading.

The rating agency Standard & Poor’s reduced ratings of Greece and Portugal. As a result, the euro reached many-months’ lows.

Euro: According to the released information on Tuesday, the Standard & Poor’s rating agency reduced the rating of Greece to the «BB+», which was for three steps downwards. US Dollar: The American dollar continued to strengthen, and the possibility of increasing of the principal rate by the FRS, continued to grow. British Pound: Following the sharp euro rate drop, the sterling also demonstrated its decrease. Japanese Yen: As a shelter-currency, the yen rate grew against its competitors. Oil: Against the background of the US dollar consolidation, the oil rate continued to decrease and reached the level of $82.45 per barrel. Gold: The gold rate continued to trade above the $1150.00 mark per ounce.

Daily Forex Analysis (April 28, 2010)

Greece became the first Euro Zone nation to have its credit rating reduced to “junk” by Standard & Poor’s, a  move that will make now nearly impossible for Greece to borrow, dashing any remaining hopes of the debt-stricken nation’s recovery. Portugal, who like Greece is struggling to rein in its budget deficit, suffered a two notch downgrade. While this downgrade left its investment-grade intact, it severally raised concerns about the country’s possible tragic fate.

Currency market weekly review (April 19 - 23, 2010)

In the beginning of the previous week the investigation over the accusations of  Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in fraud continued to render negative influence on the dynamics of the major currency pairs. But the company denied committing any illegal acts. At the same time the negotiations of Greece, the IMF and the EC government leaders were transferred due to the eruption of the volcano in Island. This issue also influenced the euro drop. The high-risk currencies were under strong pressure. Consequently, the EUR/USD pair decreased to $1.3414, but rehabilitated by the end of the day. Therefore, the American dollar strengthened as a shelter-currency. But at the second part of the trading day after the release of the positive information regarding the financial standing of some leading American companies, the market situation changed and the high-risk currencies started to rehabilitate.

The sterling reached its maximums against the US dollar due the positive news in Great Britain.

Euro: The euro rate fluctuations on Monday totally were a result of the Greek issue. US Dollar: Against the background of the rehabilitation of the American economy and the speculations of the soon minimization of the anti-crises program, the US dollar continued to stabilize. British Pound: On Monday the sterling received support from different sources. Japanese Yen: Due to the yen drop, as a shelter-currency, the USD/JPY pair consolidated in the range of Y94,00. Oil: Thanks to the US dollar consolidation, the oil prices decreased to the level of $84.55  per barrel. Gold: The gold traded above the level of $1150 per ounce.

Daily Forex Analysis (April 27, 2010)

The Euro slipped against all its major currency counterparts yesterday as uncertainty intensified over how and when Greece would get the financial aid sought last week to avert a potential sovereign debt default. The spread between Greek and German 10-year government bond yields hit a new 12-year high of 679 basis points on Monday, indicating market concern over the implementation of the aid package and the conditions attached to it. Comments from Germany, potentially the biggest contributor to any aid package, helped keep markets nervous after Greece on Friday requested an aid package drawn up by the European Union and International Monetary Fund be implemented. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said Germany was aiming to free up financial support for Greece before a May 19 deadline, but the opposition Social Democrats said they would not back an accelerated parliamentary process to approve the aid.

Daily Forex Analysis (April 26, 2010)

“Europe and the members of the euro zone, are committed to a common currency and will defend it at any cost,” Greece’s Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou told reporters yesterday in Washington, following his meeting with the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. According to the Greek Prime Minister, Europe’s response to the Greek fiscal crisis shows that the bloc will do whatever is necessary to protect its unilateral currency. Greece is currently negotiating the terms of a bailout worth as much as ?45 billion this year as investors continue to doubt that that the tiny Mediterranean nation can finance itself after its budget deficit totaled 13.6% of gross domestic product last year. With Greece facing ?8.5 billion of bonds maturing May 19, finance ministers are seeking a swift resolution of the talks.

According to the revised data, the budget deficit of Greece for 2009 turned out to be more than released before.

Euro: On Thursday the euro demonstrated a significant drop in spite of the published positive Euro-zone fundamentals. US Dollar: Against the background of the compounded fears of the market participants regarding the situation in Europe, the American dollar gained its strength. British Pound: The sterling demonstrated some growth on Thursday. Japanese Yen: The USD/JPY pair traded in the range of Y92,70-Y93,59. Oil: The oil traded around the $83 mark per barrel. Gold: Regardless of the US dollar increase.

Daily Forex Analysis (April 23, 2010)

In the US wholesale prices rose more than forecast in March, boosted by higher costs for energy and the biggest gain in food since 1984.The 0.7% increase in prices paid to factories, farmers and other producers followed a 0.6% drop in February, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Excluding fuel and food, so-called core prices rose 0.1% for a second month, restrained by cheaper cars and appliances. Inflation may be limited as companies rely on productivity gains to offset higher costs of energy and raw materials. Excess capacity and slow job growth underscore the Federal Reserve’s pledge to keep interest rates close to zero for an “extended period.”

The positive financial reports of some leading American corporations supported the stock markets growth.

Euro: On Wednesday the euro continued to be under pressure due to the speculations regarding the fact. US Dollar: As a shelter-currency, the American dollar happened to be under pressure on Wednesday. British Pound: The sterling consolidated on Wednesday due to the unexpected positive news. Japanese Yen: The yen also demonstrated its decrease against the background of the increased investors’ willingness to take risks.

Oil: The oil rate demonstrated its growth to $84.02 per barrel.

Daily Forex Analysis (April 22, 2010)

Yesterday the pound rose against both the euro and the US dollar as UK claimant counts fell more than economists forecast in March, giving a boost to Prime Minister Gordon Brown as he fights the tightest UK general election for more than 30 years. The currency gained 0.31% against the US dollar to close at GBP 1.54081. It rose by 0.66% against the euro to close at GBP 0.86861.The number of people collecting jobless benefits fell 32,900 from February to 1.54 million, the Office for National Statistics said yesterday. A drop of 10,000 had been expected. In February, the number of jobless claims fell by 40,100 instead of the 32,300 drop originally reported. The decline was the largest since June 1997. In March, the claimant count rate fell to 4.8%, the lowest since June last year, from 4.9%.

Unexpected positive Euro-zone fundamentals rendered support to the euro.

Euro: Positive Euro-zone fundamentals were released on Tuesday. US Dollar: The American dollar turned out to be under pressure due to the increased demand for the high-risk assets. British Pound: The positive UK statistics supported the sterling. Japanese Yen: The USD/JPY pair showed its trading day maximums at the level of Y93,38. Australian Dollar: According to the released minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting. Canadian Dollar: The speculations regarding the possible principal rates increase by the Bank of Canada resulted in a sharp growth of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar. Oil: The oil rate demonstrated its growth to $83.40 per barrel.

Daily Forex Analysis (April 21, 2010)

In the UK the inflation rate rose sharply to 3.4% in March from 3% the month before according to figures released yesterday. The rise in the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation rate was greater than analysts had expected. Retail Prices Index (RPI) inflation, which includes housing costs, also rose sharply to 4.4% in March, up from 3.7% the previous month. The CPI inflation rate is the measure targeted by Bank of England interest-rate setters, while RPI is often used as a benchmark in wage negotiations. Higher petrol prices were an important factor in rising consumer prices, the Office for National Statistics said. Petrol prices have been rising because of the relative strength of the US Dollar and higher refining costs, as well as the increasing price of oil. The price of oil hit 18-month highs at the start of April.

Shelter-currencies strengthened against the background of the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. scandal and due to the concerns over Greece problems

Euro: The investigation over the accusations of  Goldman Sachs Group Inc. US Dollar: The American dollar, as a shelter-currency, strengthened. British Pound: The sterling was under pressure due to the new wave of concerns connected to the upcoming elections, planned for May 6-th. Japanese Yen: Due to the decreased investors’ willingness to take risks, the yen strengthened as a shelter-currency. Oil: The price of the “black gold” decreased to the $81.32 mark per barrel. Gold: According to the opinion of some experts, the Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Currency pairs technical review (April 20, 2010)

EURUSD: The pair filled in the gap and declined to support level at 1.3433. GBPUSD: The pair wasn’t able to break 1.5760 and started to decline. USDCHF: The pair has filled in the gap. USDCHF: The pair has filled in the gap. USDJPY: The pair declined to 91.94 and may continue to decline to test trendline at 90.04. AUDUSD: The pair has reached support at 0,9177 and trying to break it.

Currency market weekly review (April 12 - 16, 2010)

The reached agreement of the bail-out plan for Greece resulted in the optimism, which returned to the market on Monday. In order to avoid the default, Greece is supposed to receive 30 billion euro’s and the IMF will provide with additional 15 billion euro’s. Therefore, in the beginning of the week the EUR/USD pair demonstrated its maximums at the level of $1.3691. At the same time in the threshold of the upcoming elections the political situation in Great Britain pressured the sterling. The speculations, regarding the possibility that the British Parliament would not receive the necessary majority, resumed. In addition, the RICS House Price Balance for March, which was released on Monday, showed considerable decrease compared to the forecast. And the GBP/USD pair dropped to its minimums at the level of $1.5370.

Daily Forex Analysis (April 19, 2010)

US Housing starts climbed to an annual rate of 626,000 last month, up 1.6% from February’s 616,000 pace, according to Commerce Department figures released Friday in Washington. Building permits, an indicator of future construction, climbed to the highest level since October 2008. An improvement in the housing market, after a crash that contributed to the deepest recession since World War II ended signals a broadening of the economic recovery.

The new wave of speculations regarding concerns over the Greek issue pressured the euro.

Euro: The increased investors’ willingness to take risks on Thursday was a result of the released positive data from China. US Dollar: Positive US fundamentals were released on Thursday. British Pound: The survey, which was held in Great Britain showed a considerable gap between the political parties, which influence the sterling rate growth. Japanese Yen: The yen demonstrated its growth against the euro. Oil: Due to the released data, which confirmed the reduced US oil inventories, the oil rate showed some growth. Gold: The gold traded in the range of $1,151.00 - $1,158.50 per ounce.

Daily Forex Analysis (April 16, 2010)

The Euro snapped five days of gains against the greenback as concerns begin to grow that the European Union’s latest rescue plan for Greece- a ?45billion bailout package – won’t be enough to restore the single currencies value. The European Union’s single currency fell sharply against all but 2 of its 16 most traded currency counterparts, as the extra yield investors demand to hold Greek 10-year bonds instead of benchmark German bunds rose above 400 basis points for the first time since Greece’s bailout package was announced last Sunday. The EUR/USD hit a fresh weekly low of $1.3515.

The statement of the head of the FRS, Ben Bernanke, had a negative influence on the US dollar dynamics.

Euro: The speculations regarding the rehabilitation of the world economy and the increased investors’ interest to take risks on Wednesday supported high-risk currencies’ growth. US Dollar: The financial reports of the Intel Corp., which unexpectedly demonstrated a better result, had a positive impact on the investors’ optimism. British Pound: Following the euro, the sterling also increased against the US dollar. Japanese Yen: Due to the drop of the shelter-currencies, the Japanese yen rate decreased against its competitors. Oil: The decrease of the American dollar influenced the oil prices growth. Gold: The gold rate consolidated around the mark of $1,150 per ounce.

Daily Forex Analysis (April 15, 2010)

U.S retail sales rose 1.6% in March, marking the fifth gain in the past six months. Yesterday the U.S Census Bureau reported that sales totaled $363.2 billion, as demand increased for autos, building materials and new clothes. Excluding autos and trucks, core retail sales for March rose slightly more than expected- increasing 0.6% to $300.5billion. At the same time as the release of the retail sales report, the U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March. While CPI was in line with market expectations of a 0.1%, the Core rate (excluding food and fuel) held steady after rising 0.1% in February- reflecting cheaper rents and clothing. Following the release of these reports, the USD increased by its largest amount versus the Japanese Yen in more than a week. The greenback appreciated as much as 0.6% to 93.72, resulting in the pairs biggest intra day gain since April 2nd. Moreover, following the release of these reports, the EUR/USD tumbled below the 1.3600 mark, hitting a fresh intra-day low of 1.3595. However, shortly after, the USD reversed all of these prior gains, declining 0.3% to reach $1.3658 per euro.

The results of the Greek tender surpassed the expectations

Euro: The beginning of the trading day on Tuesday was still under influence of the positive Monday news regarding the decision to allocate 45 billion euros aimed to help Greece to avoid default. US Dollar: The increased number of the US trade deficit in February above predictions of the experts was released on Tuesday. British Pound: The reduction of the trade deficit in Great Britain in February, which was also published on Tuesday, had a positive influence on the sterling dynamics. Japanese Yen: The USD/JPY pair traded in the range of Y92.50-Y93.40. Oil: The oil rate decreased and consolidated around the level of $83.00 per barrel.

The agreement on Greece bail-out was reached and the high-risk currencies were gaining strength

Euro: The reached agreement of the bail-out plan for Greece resulted in the optimism, which returned to the market on Monday. US Dollar: Due to the dropped demand for the shelter-currencies, the American dollar rate decreased. British Pound: In the threshold of the upcoming elections the political situation in Great Britain pressured the sterling. Japanese Yen: The USD/JPY pair traded in the range of Y92,89-Y93,60. Australian Dollar: The home loans, commercial lending and the total value of loans in Australia for February showed a considerable decrease, which pressured the national currency. Oil: Against the background of the increased investors’ willingness to take risks and the decreased US dollar, the oil rate demonstrated its growth to $85.30 per barrel. But then the price dropped to the level of $84.

Daily Forex Analysis (April 14, 2010)

At half past one this afternoon, the Census Bureau will release Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales for March. Economists predict retail sales will increase by as much as 1.1%, the biggest increase in four months as better weather and hiring pick up. The market also predicts that core retail sales will increase by 0.5%. Published at the same time as retail sales, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the CPI and core CPI for March. Inflation is the key to raising the interest rate, and boosting the value of a currency; however, economists predict that CPI will increase by 0.1%, after remaining unchanged last time. Core CPI, which is closely watch by the Fed, is predicted to increase by 0.1%- exactly like last month.

Currency market weekly review (April 5 - 9, 2010)

In the beginning of the previous week many of the market participants were celebrating Passover holidays. At the same time positive US fundamentals were released on Monday. In particular, the ISM non-manufacturing composite index for March grew to the level of 55,4 against the forecast of 54. And the pending home sales increased for 8.20%, while the forecasted change was at 0.00%. Therefore, the interest to take risks increased and the US dollar turned out to be under pressure. And the EUR/USD pair reached its maximums at the level of $1.3500. In the beginning of the week the oil rate grew against the background of the rehabilitation of the world economy. Its maximum has been reached at the level of $86.85 per barrel. Therefore, the Canadian dollar continued its positive dynamics against the US dollar.

Currency pairs technical review (April 13, 2010)

EURUSD: The pair has drawn Double Bottom on daily graph. GBPUSD: The pair has broken 1.5252 and aiming to Moving Average (200) at 1.5760, in case 1.5484 will be broken. USDCHF: The pair has tested Moving Average (500) at 1.0777 and rolled back. USDJPY: The pair declined to 92.58. AUDUSD: The pair has reached resistance at 0.9336.

Daily Forex Analysis (April 13, 2010)

The Euro strengthened yesterday to its highest level in more than three weeks versus the U.S Dollar after news broke that Greece would be receiving an international rescue package worth as much as ?45 billion ($61 billion) to help it avoid a default. Following the announcement of the of the “rescue plan” the single currency rose to $1.36906, appreciating as much as 1.4%, its biggest gain since last September. The Euro’s gain, which was its third increase in the past three days, sent the Dollar Index tumbling 1.3% to its lowest level since March 18th.

Daily Forex Analysis (April 12, 2010)

The Euro surged to the highest level in more than three weeks against the U.S Dollar after European governments offered Greece a rescue package worth as much as ?45Bn ($61bn) at below-market interest rates. Finance Ministers of the 16-nation single currency bloc have agreed to offer as much as ?30bn in three year loans, at around 5% interest. This is much lower than current borrowing costs facing the debt-stricken nation, with the yield on Greek government debt rising to a record high of 7.5% last Thursday. The aid package also involves the International Monetary Fund, which will provide an additional ?15bn.

Daily Forex Analysis (April 09, 2010)

More Americans unexpectedly filed first time claims for jobless benefits last week, in part reflecting difficulty in seasonally adjusting the data ahead of the Easter holiday. Initial jobless applications increased by 18,000 to 460,000 in the week ended April 3rd, Labor Department figures showed yesterday. The week leading up to Easter and the two weeks that follow are traditionally a “volatile time” for claims, a Labor Department analyst said. Last week the US Labor Department reported that payrolls rose by 162,000 in March, the biggest gain in three years. The unemployment rate was 9.7% for a third month. It has not increased since reaching a 26-year high of 10.1% in October.

Concerns over the crises in Greece continued to intensify.

Euro: The speculations regarding the negative influence of the Greece problems on the Euro-zone economy rehabilitation continued to pressure the euro. US Dollar: The American dollar demonstrated its consolidation against its major competitors. Japanese Yen: According to the published information on Wednesday. Canadian Dollar: The Canadian dollar was under negative influence of the decreasing oil prices. Oil: The forecasted growth of the oil inventories in the US pressured the oil rate. Gold: The “yellow metal” rate demonstrated its growth to the level of $1137 per ounce.

Daily Forex Analysis (April 08, 2010)

In the US yesterday Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said joblessness, home foreclosures and weak lending to small businesses pose challenges to the economy as it recovers from the worst recession since the 1930s. “We are far from being out of the woods,” Bernanke said yesterday in a speech in Dallas. While the financial crisis has abated and economic growth will probably reduce unemployment over the next year, the U.S. faces hurdles including the lack of a sustained rebound in housing, a “troubled” commercial real estate market and “very weak” hiring, he said.

The intentions to change the offered bail-out plan by Greece, pressured the euro.

Euro: On Tuesday the euro demonstrated its negative dynamics due to the complications over the Greek issue. US Dollar: After the release of the US positive fundamentals, the high-risk currencies managed to rehabilitate a little. British Pound: The UK positive news were published in Great Britain. Japanese Yen: Thanks to the US dollar weakness after the release of the last FOMC minutes of the meeting on monetary policy, the Japanese yen managed to increase. Australian Dollar: According to the expectations, the Reserve bank of Australia decided to increase the principal rate to the  4,25% level.Oil: The growing demand for the raw materials continued to render support to the oil prices. Gold: The gold traded around the $1,124.20 mark per ounce.

Daily Forex Analysis (April 07, 2010)

In the US the minutes of the March Federal Open Market Committee were released yesterday in Washington. Federal Reserve officials saw signs of a strengthening recovery that could be hobbled by high unemployment and tight credit and some warned of raising rates too soon. “While recent data pointed to a noticeable pickup in the pace of consumer spending during the first quarter, participants agreed that household spending going forward was likely to remain constrained by weak labor market conditions, lower housing wealth, tight credit, and modest income growth,” minutes of the March 16 FOMC  meeting showed.

The positive US fundamentals increased the demand for the high-risk assets.

Euro: The major financial markets were closed on Monday due to the Passover holidays. The euro rate showed diversified dynamics. Euro: The major financial markets were closed on Monday due to the Passover holidays. The euro rate showed diversified dynamics. British Pound: The sterling received support from the speculations regarding the possible rehabilitation of the political situation in Great Britain. Japanese Yen: The yen rate strengthened against the US dollar. Australian Dollar: The speculations regarding the possible increase of the major interest rate in Australia rendered support to the Australian dollar. Canadian Dollar: Due to the oil rate growth the Canadian dollar continued its positive dynamics against the US dollar. Oil: The oil rate grew against the background of the rehabilitation of the world economy.

Daily Forex Analysis (April 06, 2010)

US service industries expanded in March at the fastest pace since May 2006 indicating that the recovery in the US economy has spread beyond the manufacturing sector and is creating jobs. The Institute for Supply Management's index of non-manufacturing businesses, which comprise almost 90% of the economy, rose to 55.4, a bigger jump than expected and up from 53.0 the previous month. The pace of orders to service industries rose to the highest level since 2005, while backlogs were the highest since August 2007, indicating companies were having trouble meeting demand.

Due to the signs of the world economy rehabilitation, the demand for the shelter-currencies dropped.

Against the background of the optimistic moods, which prevailed in the market on Thursday, the euro rate grew. The positive US fundamentals were published on Thursday.The pound also demonstrated a positive dynamics. Thanks to the released positive US news, the American dollar grew against the Japanese yen. The oil rate continued its growth and reached the level of $84.90 per barrel. The gold prices also increased and consolidated around the level of $1,117.80 per ounce.

The positive European fundamentals helped euro reach weekly maximums against the US dollar

Euro: The positive Euro-zone fundamentals were released on Wednesday. Euro: The positive Euro-zone fundamentals were released on Wednesday. British Pound: Following the euro, the sterling also demonstrated its positive dynamics. Japanese Yen: Against the background of the decreased demand for the shelter-currencies, the yen rate dropped.

Currency pairs technical review (April 01, 2010)

EURUSD: The pair is trading between 1.3598 and 1.3433. GBPUSD: The par has risen up to resistance 1.5252. USDCHF: The pair declined to support level at 1.0514. USDJPY: The pair has broken through trend line  91.25 and trying to rise. AUDUSD: The pair is testing resistance at 0.9177.

Daily Forex Analysis (April 01, 2010)

In the US the ADP Non-Farm Payroll has shown that companies there unexpectedly cut payrolls in March. The 23,000 decline was the smallest in two years and followed a revised 24,000 drop the prior month, data from ADP Employer Services showed today. Over the previous six months, ADP’s initial figures have overstated the Labor Department’s first estimate of private payroll losses by as little as 2,000 in February to as much as 151,000 in November.

The Greek bonds, which were placed on Tuesday, had insufficient demand.

In spite of the growing demand for the high-risk currencies, the Greek problems had a negative influence on the euro dynamics again. The US fundamentals, which were released on Tuesday, rendered temporary support to the American dollar. The positive news, which were published on Tuesday in Great Britain, resulted in a sharp growth of the sterling rate. The industrial production change in Japan showed a stronger decrease, compared to the expectations.

Currency pairs technical review (March 31, 2010)

EURUSD: The pair is aiming to Fibonacci 23.6% at 1.3229. GBPUSD: The pair has returned to 1.5058, if breakout this level then the pair will rise up to 1.5252. USDCHF: The pair has reached intermediate trend line 1.0677. USDJPY: The pair has broken through trend line  91.25 and trying to rise. AUDUSD: The pair is testing resistance at 0.9177.

Daily Forex Analysis (March 31, 2010)

The EUR gave back most of the gains made during the Asian session yesterday with pressure coming from worsening news out of Europe – Ireland’s “Bad Bank” indicating it will apply a discount of 47% vs. 30% initial estimate on blocks of bad loans, Greek bonds trading poorly with tepid demand for the 12-year auction, an IMF downgrade to German growth and a rumoured French ratings downgrade (subsequently denied with Fitch affirming the AAA rating).

Due to the increased investors’ optimism, the demand for the high-risk currencies grew.

Thanks to the reached agreement between the Euro-zone and the IMF regarding the Greek issue last week, the positive influence lasted on Monday as well. The market participants were configured positively, and the demand for the high-risk currencies grew. The euro rate demonstrated maximum levels against its competitors. Against the background of the world economy rehabilitation, the US dollar rate happened to be under pressure. Following the euro, the pound strengthened as well. As a shelter-currency, the yen rate dropped against its competitors. As a shelter-currency, the yen rate dropped against its competitors. Against the background of the world economy rehabilitation, the oil rate grew and reached maximum at the level of $82.47 per barrel.

Currency pairs technical review (March 30, 2010)

EURUSD: The pair nearly touched 1.3229 and is trying to return to test Flag’s resistance at 1.3598. GBPUSD: The pair is returning to 1.5058, if breakout this level then the pair will rise up to 1.5252. USDCHF: The pair has reached intermediate trend line 1.0677. USDJPY: The pair has broken through trend line  91.25 and trying to rise. AUDUSD: The pair corrected to 0.9004 and continues to rise.

Currency market weekly review (March 22 - 26, 2010)

During the whole trading week the uncertainty of the Greek issue continued to have a major influence on the market dynamics. Thus, on Monday the absence of the specific bailout plan for Greece concerned the market again. The demand for the high-risk currencies started to drop. The German Chancellor Angela Merkel stated, that the EC summit, which will take place this week, is not planned to consider the issue of the financial help for Greece. During the second part of the day, against the background of the ECB President’s comments, the euro rate started to rehabilitate. Jean-Claude Trichet was strongly against the speculations regarding the possibility that any of the EC countries might leave the Euro-zone. Therefore, the EUR/USD pair dropped to its minimums around the level of  $1,3490 and then rehabilitated to the $1,3540 mark.

Currency pairs technical review (March 29, 2010)

EURUSD: The pair declined to 1.3257 and returned to resistance at 1.3433. GBPUSD: The pair has found resistance at 1.5252 and started to decline. USDCHF: The Moving Average (100 and 200) gave the pair support and stopped its declining. USDJPY: The pair brokeout  trend line. AUDUSD: Moving Average (100) didn’t let the pair decline lower 1.9090.

Daily Forex Analysis (March 26, 2010)

In the US first time jobless claims fell to the lowest level in six weeks as the rebound in the U.S. economy encourages companies to make fewer cuts in payrolls. First-time jobless applications declined 14,000 in the week ended March 20 to 442,000, lower than anticipated according to Labor Department figures published yesterday. The number of people receiving unemployment insurance decreased, and those getting extended benefits also fell.

The euro rate dropped and reached its 10-months low against the US dollar.

The announcements, that the help for Greece from the IMF would undermine the stability and confidence in the European Community, had a strong pressure on the euro. The negative fundamentals were published in the US. The sterling demonstrated a negative dynamics following the euro rate. Against the background of the major US dollar strengthening, the USD/JPY pair grew and reached the Y92.39 mark. Due to the general uncertainty in the market, the oil rate decreased.The drop of the euro had a negative influence on the gold prices.

Currency pairs technical review (March 25, 2010)

EURUSD: The pair has broken  1.3433 and aiming to 1.3229. GBPUSD: The pair couldn’t break 1.5252 and declining to 1.4845. The pair may continue declining if breaks 1.4845. Aim is at 1.4507. USDCHF: The pair has reached the technical level for the figure at 1.0726. If the pair breaks this level, the next aim is 1.0821. USDJPY: The pair has broken 91.25, aim 92.58. AUDUSD: The pair has found intermediate resistance at 0.9177, the closest support  is 0.9004.

Daily Forex Analysis (March 24, 2010)

In a highly political UK budget Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling has cut his growth forecast for next year to between 3% and 3.5%. He had earlier predicted growth would reach 3.75%. He stuck to his prediction the economy will expand by 1.5% this year. The Chancellor also revealed that Britain's budget deficit will be smaller than the ?178bn expected in the pre-Budget report. The UK will borrow ?167bn this financial year and ?163bn next year. The central issue in the Budget has been the deficit, which standing at 12% of GDP is one of the largest in Europe. It has made the handling of the nation's finances by Prime Minister Gordon Brown and Chancellor Darling a key election issue.

The American dollar grew, as a shelter-currency.

The uncertainty in the situation with Greece continued to pressure the euro rate. Conflicting opinions within Euro-zone, regarding the bailout plan for Greece, only strengthened this pressure. The positive US fundamentals were released on Tuesday. The consumer price index in Great Britain turned out to be below the forecast: 0.4% against the expected 0.5%. As a shelter-currency, the yen received support against its major competitors.

 

Currency pairs technical review (March 24, 2010)

EURUSD:The pair has broken support 1.3598 and declining to the next level at 1.3433. GBPUSD:The pair couldn’t break 1.5252 and declining to 1.4845. USDCHF:The pair has drown upside down Head and Shoulders. USDJPY: The pair has returned to support at 90.04. If the pair breakout 91.25, then the pair will rise up to 92.58. AUDUSD: The pair has found intermediate resistance at 0.9177, the closest support  is 0.9080.

Daily Forex Analysis (March 24, 2010)

In the US figures for sales of existing homes fell in February for the third month indicating that the high unemployment level is hindering demand in the housing sector. Sales dropped 0.6% to a 5.02 million annual rate, the lowest level in eight months. The expansion and extension of a federal tax credit that helped to stabilize the housing market in 2009 hasn't taken effect so far this year due to continuing high unemployment levels.