By Nirmal Bang

SPICES COMPLEX

MARKET ROUNDUP
Spices complex remained vibrant with Jeera futures continue to hit new highs where as for turmeric it was other way round we have seen lower freeze. Pepper was able to move up and managed to stay in green.

IN FOCUS
- Jeera robust exports from the country and expectation that next year crop size will go down by 15-20% has resulted in sharp upside, arrivals in Unjha mandi remained thin but feel current upside might not be sustainable as sowing conditions are favorable.
- Turmeric, slack domestic and export demand at high rates may trigger more selling in December contract and we feel that this commodity is now entered into bearish phase after making historic highs.
- Pepper international market continues to remain firm and upside in domestic market is likely to get capped as domestic demand is yet to pick up, long term bullish fundamentals of pepper are still intact December to February we tend to see pick up in seasonal demand of pepper.
- Mentha oil we have seen sharp upside on the back of exports from the country might pick up but actual scenario is not pointing towards major upside from here as exports are still not picking up from the country so upside might get capped at Rs.600/kg

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK
We recommend selling turmeric, cardamom during the day. After hitting upper freeze jeera prices may move up by 1-1.5% but we recommend selling rallies in jeera and chilli also look vulnerable for profit taking.

GUAR, PULSES AND GRAINS COMPLEX

MARKET ROUNDUP
Wheat futures ended a tad lower backed by the expectation of bumper crop this year. Chana and Guar ended a tad higher during last trading session.

IN FOCUS
- Chana arrivals are 4500-5000 bags at Delhi's Lawrence Road Mandi. The Spot price is expected to open at Rs.2530-50/quintal same it was on previous day's trading session.
- Unseasonal showers in different parts of Vidarbha have spelt doom for many farmers. There were reports on Tuesday of paddy, gram and cotton crops being damaged or flattened because of the rain and strong winds.
- Arrivals of Chana remained sluggish during last week due heavy rainfalls in Madhya Pradesh, we expect arrivals to be reasonably good today and in coming few days as weatherr clears further.
- Facing criticism for the spiraling prices of daily commodities, the Delhi government has decided to sell wheat flour at subsidised rates from 132 outlets across the city. Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit said initially only 10-kg packets of wheat flour will be available for Rs 139 as against the market rate of Rs 180 to Rs 200.
- Government had planned to sell 1 million tonne in the open market 20 lakh bags every month in Delhi market. Govt. has already declared prices for Atta at Rs. 1113/quintal and Rs. 14/kg for atta after milling which is quite lower than expected.

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK
Chana future is expected to be down for the day, any major upside should be looked up as good selling oppurtunity for short term purpose. Guar too is expected to trade sideways for the day we recommend selling on every rise. Wheat too is expected to trade sideways for the day.

OIL AND OIL SEEDS COMPLEX

MARKET ROUNDUP
Oilseeds complex rallied during last trading session mainly on account robust buying in the domestic market for Soybean and refined oil.

IN FOCUS

- U.S. soybean futures closed lower on profit-taking and producer hedge selling after prices soared to a five-month peak in wheat, a month high in soybeans.
- After several weeks out of the market, Brazilian soybean producers returned to selling the 2009/10 crop that they are currently planting, prompted by rising international prices over the past week.
- German oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday it has cut its forecast of Argentina's soybean crop in early 2010 to 48 million tonnes from 50 million tonnes in its previous forecast on Nov. 3 due to dry weather.
- China will pay farmers 1 percent more for the new soybean harvest and the same price for corn as last year, but will also subsidise local crushing plants to try to stop high prices attracting imports, traders said on Tuesday. Soybean prices for the new harvest were set at 3,740 yuan ($548) per tonne, 1 percent higher than last year, in line with market expectations.
- World's soybean stocks were seen jumping because of record world crops seen this season and next, AgResource President Dan Basse told Reuters in an interview on the sidelines of the Global Grain conference.
- Soybean stocks were seen up by between 15 million and 17 million tonnes to 58 million in 2009/10, Basse said, who did not give a soy stocks forecast for next season.
- Soybean output would rise slightly to 247 million tonnes in 2010/11 to exceed the record world crop of 245 million expected this season.

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK
We expect oilseeds complex to trade down for the day as the complex is expected to witness some profit booking during today's trading session.