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Agricultural commodities daily review: India and other countries (January 28, 2010)

Contributed by Nirmal Bang

By Nirmal Bang

SPICES COMPLEX

MARKET ROUNDUP
- Spices complex traded mix in yesterday's trading session. Cardamom future hit lower circuit on slack domestic and international demand. Jeera futures hit new lows as higher production estimates this season continued to hurt prices.

IN FOCUS
- Jeera - Bears in cumin seed failed to affect its spot prices that traded steady in Unjha. Good domestic demand extended support to the market. Cumin seed super extra traded at Rs 2,400-2,450 per 20 kgs, extra at Rs 2,325-2,350, best at Rs 2,260-2,300, medium at Rs 2,050- 2,150 and average at Rs 1,885-1,950 per 20 kgs (all raw) (auction rates). The market received 1,500-2,000 bags while 4,300 bags were traded.
- "Buyers were active in the spot market on improved local demand," said a Nizamabad-based trader. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in Andhra Pradesh, the price jumped 188 rupees to 10,437 rupees. "The price movement will depend upon arrivals,"
- Short supply of cardamom in Guatemala is helping Indian exporters sell larger volumes despite high prices in local markets. Interestingly, the global shortage is also helping India to capture some lost export markets. India's export of small cardamom was 650 tonne in 2006-07 of which Saudi Arabia was the leading importer with 63% of the volume and 70% of the value. 

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK
- Jeera is expected to extend its losses today; we recommend Selling on rise. We may see some bounce back in turmeric and Pepper; Buying is recommended at every dip today.

GUAR, PULSES AND GRAINS COMPLEX

MARKET ROUNDUP
- Grains traded lower in yesterday trading session; wheat March future contract edged lower on Govt decision to release more stocks in open market on lower prices. Chana plunged by almost 2 per cent tracking the weakness in physical market. Guar complex settled sideways to up on short covering.

IN FOCUS
- Chana arrivals are 6000-7000 bags at Delhi's Lawrence Road Mandi. The Spot price is expected to open at Rs.2280-2290/quintal Rs30/ quintal less than previous day's trading session.
- Only 35,000 tonne of wheat products have been exported against 6,50,000 tonne allowed for exports. Wholesale wheat prices were at least Rs 2000/tonne higher than global prices. In June last year that the government had removed the two-year-old export ban on wheat products in order to clear out warehouses to make way for the new crop.
- Good rainfalls in winter which has offset some of the loss in moisture due to poor monsoon showers and hopes of good return has pushed wheat acreage in Madhya Pradesh to their highest level in more than three years. As per latest government data, wheat acreage in the state has jumped to around 4.3 million hectares till last week, almost 13% more than last year. The normal area under wheat in the state is around 3.92 million hectares.

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK
- Wheat is expected to trade firm today; selling on rise is recommended. We may see some bounce back in Chana and guar; buying at dip is recommended for today's trading session.

OIL AND OIL SEEDS COMPLEX

MARKET ROUNDUP
- Oilseed complex ended in red territory followed by weakness in international prices. Cottonseed oil cake rose by almost 1 per cent on soaring cotton exports supported prices.

IN FOCUS
- Brazil's 2009/10 soy crop that is now being harvested should reach a record 65.2 million tonnes, up from the 63.4 million tonnes projected in October, grain crushing industry association Abiove said Tuesday. Soybean exports for the 2010/ 11 (Feb-Jan) commercial year were also revised upward, to 27.1 million tonnes from the 25.8 million tonnes estimated in October. The figure is slightly lower than the record 27.4 million tonnes exported in the previous commercial year.
- Certificated Cotton stocks deliverable against the ICE No. 2 cotton futures contract as of Jan 26 totalled 458,873 (480-lb) bales, from 453,425 bales the previous session. There were 6,356 bales issued, 47,876 bales awaiting review and 616 bales were decertified.
- Cotton prices fell by 50 rupees in Rajkot onWednesday to trade at 3375 rupees per 100 kg. In Gondal too, price was 3375rupees per 100 kg, 30 rupees lower than price on Monday. The domestic prices areunder pressure owing to disparity with export prices, traders said. Arrivals in Rajkot were 6200 quintals and in Gondal; 1800 quintals.
- Indonesia will keep its crude palm oil (CPO) export tax at 3 percent in February but will raise the CPO base export price to $721 per tonne from $694.6 in January, a trade ministry official said on Wednesday. The world's top palm oil producer charges a minimum tax rate of 1.5 percent on  crude palm oil exports if the reference price, which is the average spot CPO price in Rotterdam, stands at between $701 and $750 per tonne.

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK
- Oilseed complex is expected to trade firm for the day. Selling on rise is recommended particularly in soybean and cottonseed oil cake today.