By Nirmal Bang

SPICES COMPLEX

MARKET ROUNDUP
- Spices witnessed some selling pressure with Mentha oil, Pepper and Jeera traded down whereas Turmeric and Cardamom managed to end up. Turmeric rose by 3.46% on robust international demand.

IN FOCUS
- Pepper exports in February 2010 fell 3.22 percent to 1,500 tonnes on year, the Spices Board said. India's pepper output in 2010 is expected around last year's levels, but prices are unlikely to fall sharply in coming months due to low carry-over stocks.
- Shortage of Peeper in domestic and International market and Less carry forward stock tend to increase the prices of Pepper I medium term. Unexpected rain in second largest growing country Turkey after India may damage major part of the Crop of Jeera this year. That may tighten the total supply in the market by almost 15-20%.
- Cardamom futures prices rose by Rs 15.30 or 1.23 per cent at Rs 1,260 per kg in futures trade today largely on the back of pickup in demand in the spot markets.

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK
- We expect pepper and Jeera to show some bounce back today. Turmeric too looks bullish; buying at dips is recommended.

GUAR, PULSES AND GRAINS COMPLEX

MARKET ROUNDUP
- Wheat traded nearly 1% down in yesterday's trading session followed by the prices in spot market. Chana traded down due to slack domestic demand. Guar complex settled more than 3% down supported by favorable weather conditions in major growing areas.

IN FOCUS
- The government still has on its anvil a proposal to hike the price of commodities on the Public Distribution System (PDS) for the above poverty line (APL) consumers, persistent food inflation and plans to kick off a food law notwithstanding.
- Procurement is very good, now all eyes are on monsoon if paddy crop is good this year managing the stock will be a problem. India's monsoon is likely to be normal this year, the government said on Friday, allaying fears over an event crucial to the economic fate of the world's second-most populous nation.
- Within a month of extending the deadline for open market sale scheme (OMSS) of wheat to bulk consumers and states, the central government is now contemplating revising the price of wheat sold through the scheme as retail prices have dropped below the prices offered under OMSS under the weight of bumper harvest.
- Arrivals of Chana are decreasing and some stockpiling activities are running in Madhya Pradesh. So we may expect some shortage in supply of Chana. India's chana acreage as on April 8 stood at 8.93 million hectares, compared with 8.36 million hectares in the same period a year ago, farm ministry data showed.
- Churi and korma, the byproducts of guar seed, are used as cattle feed and demand generally picks up in summer with the shortage of green grass. Demand is good in physical market. But traders are now focusing on monsoon forecast (impact)

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK
- Outlook for Wheat and Chana remains bullish today; buying at dips is recommended. Guar may trade side-ways today.

OIL AND OIL SEEDS COMPLEX

MARKET ROUNDUP
- Oilseed complex witnessed sharp profit booking yesterday. Soybean and Soy oil slumped by almost 1% followed by international markets. Cottonseed oil cake too extended its losses on third day in a row backed by band Cotton exports from India.

IN FOCUS
- Producers in Brazil and Argentina have remained slow sellers of their 2009-2010 soybean crops despite the recent rally by nearby soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade above $10/bu. In a weekly report, the Brazilian consulting firm Celeres estimated that Brazilian producers had sold only 48% of their crop as of April 23, up from 45% a week earlier, but down from 55% last year.
- PRICES of crude palm oil (CPO) and rubber may have spiralled upwards in the past three months, but local plantation companies are expected to post sequentially lower earnings for the quarter ending March 31 following over 20% drop in palm oil production nationwide.
- In order to manage increasing local costs, India has stopped cotton exports, tapering worldwide supplies and increasing forecast of an extra rise in New York futures that mounted to a two-year high in March 2010. Spot costs of most popular assortment of cotton have fallen by 3% since the ban compelled last Tuesday. The prices had mounted to 54% in contrast to the similar period in 2009.
- Chaudhary Charan Singh Haryana Agricultural University (CCSHAU), Hisar has urged the cotton farmers to complete the sowing of indigenous cotton by April 30 to obtain higher yield.

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK
- We expect Oilseed complex to trade down today. Cottonseed oil cake in particular looks weak; selling on rise is recommended. Soy oil and Palm oil may trade up today.