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Commodities Energy

Oil and natural gas daily review (February 20, 2014)

February 20, 2014, Thursday, 05:47 GMT | 00:47 EST | 10:17 IST | 12:47 SGT
Contributed by Angel Broking


Crude Oil

Nymex crude oil prices rose around 0.9 percent yesterday on the back of report from American Petroleum Institute (API) showing decline in inventories by 1.82 million barrels in last week at Cushing, Oklahoma. Inventories at the hub has fallen for the third straight week after TransCanada Corp began moving oil to Texas from Cushing on the southern leg of the Keystone pipeline from earlier this year.

Additionally, decline in distillate inventories from API along with unrest in Venezuela after opposition party continued with street demonstration supported an upside in the prices. Crude oil prices touched an intra-day high of $103.80/bbl and closed at $103.31/bbl in yesterday's trading session.

On the domestic bourses, prices gained by 0.9 percent and closed at Rs.6386/bbl after touching an intra-day high of Rs.6418/bbl on Wednesday.

API Inventories Data

As per the American Petroleum Institute (API) report last night, US crude oil inventories declined by 473,000 barrels to 362.50 million barrels for the week ending on 14th February 2014. Gasoline inventories gained by 1.4 million barrels to 234.90 million barrels and whereas distillate inventories declined by 676,000 barrels to 112.70 million barrels for the same week.

EIA Inventories Forecast

The US Energy Department (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories report today at 9:30pm IST and US crude oil inventories is expected to gain by 2.0 million barrels for the week ending on 14th February 2014. Gasoline stocks are expected to fall by 0.5 million barrels whereas distillate inventories are expected to plunge by 2.0 million barrels for the same period.


Outlook

From the intra-day perspective, we expect crude oil prices to trade on a mixed note on the back of declining inventories at Cushing Oklahoma will support an upside in the prices. Further, unrest in Venezuela along with forecast for decline in US distillate and gasoline inventories will act as a positive factor. While on the other hand, more than estimated fall in Chinese manufacturing data will create demand concerns and exert downside pressure on the prices. Additionally, expectations of unfavorable economic data from Euro Zone and the US in the evening session will act as a negative factor. In the Indian markets, Rupee depreciation will either support an upside in the prices or sharp downside will be cushioned.