Risk sentiment boosted the high-yield assets’ rally
2 September 2010 | High-risk assets were supported on Wednesday by the released positive fundamentals from Australia and China. The EUR/USD pair grew above the level of $1,2700.The European trading session set maximums at the $1.2800 mark.The US dollar was under pressure on Wednesday, as the risk appetites increased.The sterling also showed consolidation and the GBP/USD pair reached $1,5400. But the Manufacturing Purchasing manager index for August dropped to 54.3 against its forecast of 57.0, and the pound reacted with a decrease.
Technical analysis. 30% trading bonus is on again
31 August 2010 | The pair has found support at 1.26362 Fibonacci 23.6%. If this level is broken the pair will continue declining, next aim maybe at 1.23907.The pair is trading near 1.54842. If the pair breaks this level and closes below, then the pair will continue declining to 1.52523.If the pair breaks 1.02747 the pair will drop to 1.01498. If the pair stays above 1.02747 the pair may rise up to 1.05139.
The Bank of Japan decided to expand its financial stimulus plan.
31 August 2010 | The published on Monday Euro-zone fundamentals showed unexpected encouraging results. The Euro-zone consumer confidence turned out to be -11, while the forecast was -12. The Euro-zone economic confidence resulted at the level of 101.8 against the predicted 101.6. But the speculations regarding the possibility that ECB would decide to continue its economy stimulating program into the next year pressured the euro.
The release of the negative US fundamentals changes the market dynamics.
20 August 2010 | Concerns over the Euro-zone rehabilitation rate slow-down pressured the euro on Thursday. In particular, the social tensions in Greece, as an outcome of the rigid economy measures, created additional negative influence over the Euro-zone outlook. According to the experts’ forecasts, the unemployment rate in Greece will show growth. The EUR/USD rate decreased to the $1.2800 level.
The BOE meeting minutes pushed pound to maximums
19 August 2010 | The EUR/USD pair dropped to its minimums of $1,2820, since investors’ risk appetites reduced. But the European session showed maximums at $1.2908. The GBP/USD rate dropped to the range of $1,5490.
Currency pairs technical review (August 19, 2010)
19 August 2010 | EURUSD: The pair is between support 1.27009 and resistance 1.28630. GBPUSD: The pair is closed between 1.56722 and 1.54842. USDCHF: MACD divergence doesn't let pair to decline. USDJPY: MACD divergence forces pair to rise.
Daily Forex Analysis (August 19, 2010)
19 August 2010 | Amid continuing concerns that economic recovery is slowing, gold traded close to its seven week high as investors sought the safe haven investment. On the riskier side, equities closed flat and most currencies remained range bound. The US dollar fell against the yen, the Euro failed to breach $1.29, and the Canadian dollar gained.EURUSD An optimistic outlook surrounded the Euro earlier this week due to an increased demand motivated by the German government’s bond auction and the single currency rallied to a $1.2930 resistance level. However, failing to hold firm above $1.29, Euro gains came to an end yesterday.
Daily Forex Analysis (August 18, 2010)
18 August 2010 | Today saw the largest rally in over two weeks with US and European equities taking a sharp climb. Amid reports of negative sentiments in Germany, European indexed closed at highs, and after rising earlier in the session over 1.7%, US stocks closed up 1%. The boost in equity markets was in part due the rejected buyout of Potash Corp by BHP Billton for $38.6 billion. Following the news, shares of the largest producer of fertilizer rallied above BHP’s valuation bid. As stocks have been under pressure recently, today’s rallying may have been a relief rally.
Currency market weekly review (August 09 - August 13, 2010)
17 August 2010 | The beginning of the previous week saw the continued weakening of the greenback. US dollar traded at its 3-months minimum level on Monday morning against the euro due to the expectations for the FRS meeting. According to the forecasts, the FRS policy announcement would include additional measures aimed to stimulate the economy. Market participants did not expect the principal rate to be increased. At the same time the released positive Euro-zone fundamentals, which should not be underestimated, supported the euro. The Bank of France business sentiment turned out to be at the 101 level, according to the expectations. And the Euro-zone Sentix Investor confidence was 8.5 against its forecast of only 1.6. The EUR/USD pair traded in the range of $1,3270-$1,3300.
Currency pairs technical review (August 16 - August 20, 2010)
17 August 2010 | EURUSD: The pair may find support at 1.26362 Fibonacci 23.6%. GBPUSD: The pair is aiming to 1.54842. USDCHF: If the pair breaks 1.03987 the pair will decline to 1.02747 and probably to 1.01498. USDJPY: The pair is trading in the narrow range between 86.246 and 85.161. AUDUSD: If the pair stays below 0.89029 the pair may decline to 0.87243.
The released Japanese GDP pressured the outlook for the world economy rehabilitation
17 August 2010 | The EUR/USD pair strengthened above the $1,2800 mark on the background of the mild risk appetites. The sterling showed maximums against the US dollar at the level of $1,5640, but the pound decreased later on.
Currency pairs technical review (August 17, 2010)
17 August 2010 | EURUSD: The pair is between support 1.27009 and resistance 1.28630. GBPUSD: The pair has reached 1.56722, if the pair breaks this level the pair will rise to 1.58543. USDCHF: MACD divergence forces pair to rise. USDJPY: MACD divergence forces pair to rise. AUDUSD: The pair has declined to 0.89029 and rolling back to 0.90284.
The unexpected growth of the US jobless claims disappointed investors
13 August 2010 | The EUR/USD pair strengthened above the $1,2900 mark. But the general weakening of the euro continued on Thursday as well. The concerns over the budget problems of the region worried market participants and rendered pressure on the euro. The EUR/USD pair weakened to the
$1.2798 mark.
FOMC stated that US economy rehabilitation slowed down.
12 August 2010 | The EUR/USD pair showed minimums in the range of $1,3130. Market participants’ attention was totally concentrated on the today’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the principal rate decision. Undoubtedly, the principal rate would be left at the previous level, but the FRS decision regarding the incentive measures was vital. The publication of the FRS decision was planned at 18:15 GMT. The US Dollar rate grew and strengthened against the euro based on the above expectations.
Currency pairs technical review (August 11, 2010)
12 August 2010 | EURUSD: The pair declined to 1.31125. GBPUSD: The pair has reached 1.56722 and trying to roll back to 1.58543. USDCHF: MACD divergence forces pair to rise. USDJPY: The pair is trading near support 85.161.
The BOE Inflation report pushed the sterling to its lows
12 August 2010 | On Wednesday investors were under pressure of FRS prognosis for the rehabilitation of the US economy, which was released yesterday. Risk sentiment dropped. The EUR/USD rate decreased and reached the $1,3025 mark. As the save-haven currencies were in demand on Wednesday, the US dollar managed to grow against its competitors.
Currency pairs technical review (August 11, 2010)
12 August 2010 | EURUSD: The pair has declined to the support level 1.28630. GBPUSD: The pair has reached 1.56722 and trying to roll back to 1.58543. USDCHF: MACD divergence forces pair to rise. USDJPY: MACD divergence forces pair to rise.
Daily Forex Analysis (August 12, 2010)
12 August 2010 | The fallout from the Fed’s decision earlier this week, which demonstrated slow economic growth, is still felt by investors as they revise their strategies for a sluggish market. In this regard, investors are modifying their portfolios by eschewing stocks, commodities and volatile currencies and are seeking safe-haven investments such as treasury bonds, the yen and the dollar.
Daily Forex Analysis (August 11, 2010)
11 August 2010 | In an attempt to curb the staggering economy, the Federal Reserve FOMC announced yesterday its decision to reinvest proceeds from its swelling mortgage bond portfolio to buy long-term treasury bonds. Interest rates were maintained at current low values. Coming after weeks of less than promising indicators that have demonstrated the lackluster performance of the US economy, this slight easing is meant to encourage borrowing to further stimulate the economy.
Market participants’ focus on the FRS policy announcement
10 August 2010 | The EUR/USD pair traded in the range of $1,3270-$1,3300. Against the background of the US dollar weakness, the euro was also supported by the Euro-zone fundamentals, which should not be underestimated. The Bank of France business sentiment turned out to be at the 101 level, according to the expectations. And the Euro-zone Sentix Investor confidence was 8.5 against its forecast of only 1.6.
Daily Forex Analysis (August 10, 2010)
10 August 2010 | Last Friday’s report of unemployment data for July, along with weak indicators for housing and consumer spending, show a slow recovery of the US economy. Due to this less than promising situation, the Fed is expected to maintain the current federal fund rate. Should the Fed announce new stimulus measures, the dollar could fall again. On the table, the Fed is likely to discuss restarting asset purchasing programs in order to secure the long term goal of lowering interest rates and stabilizing the economy.
Daily Forex Analysis (August 09, 2010)
9 August 2010 | The Dollar tumbled to an eight-month low against the Yen and dropped versus the Euro after data showed the U.S lost twice as many jobs in July as expected, fueling concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to take additional steps towards providing extra stimulus measures. On Friday the U.S Labor Department reported that Non-Farm payrolls fell by 131K, compared with an expected drop of 63K. While the private sector (excluding government agencies) rose by 71K, below market expectations of a 91K rise. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate dropped from 9.6% to 9.5%.
The negative release of the Initial jobless claims reinforced concerns over the American economy rehabilitation
9 August 2010 | On Thursday the European Central Bank announced of its decision to leave the principal rate at the previous level of 1.00%. The market participants’ expectations of the reduction in the US Initial jobless claims today’s publication supported the American dollar, and the EUR/USD pair decreased to the $1,3120 range.
Currency market weekly review (August 02 - August 06, 2010)
9 August 2010 | The beginning of the previous trading week saw confident growth of the greenback competitors. And strong Euro-zone manufacturing fundamentals fueled the euro growth. Monday morning trading experienced the US dollar weakening as the expectations for the negative US data increased. The ISM Manufacturing for July was predicted to fall to 54.5 from its previous value of 56.2. At the same time the released report showed that Great Britain purchasing manufacturing index for July turned out to be higher than its expectations: 57.3 against the forecasted 57.0. According to the experts’ opinion, the British economy rehabilitation rate was higher, than its previous forecasts. And the GBP/USD pair set maximums at the $1,5800 mark.
Currency pairs technical review (August 02 - August 06, 2010)
9 August 2010 | EURUSD: The pair has broken Fibonacci 38.2%, if the stays above this level the pair will try to test the next level Fibonacci 50% at 1.34882. GBPUSD: The pair is under pressure of Moving Average (100) 1.60658 at weekly chart. USDCHF: The pair has formed the Pennant on Daily chart. USDJPY: The pair has reached 85.161.
Daily Forex Analysis (August 05, 2010)
5 August 2010 | The Dollar's recent downtrend against the majority of its currency counterpart came to a halt yesterday, after reports showed that the U.S. added more workers than expected and the service industries grew faster in July. The Greenback eased up from an eight-month low against the Yen and gained for the first time in three days versus the Euro, after the ADP Non-Farm Payroll (Parolls excluding government agencies) increased by 42,000 workers last month, marking its sixth consecutive monthly gain. Moreover, Service industries grew at faster than expected rate in July, reflecting an increase in employment and reducing the risk that U.S. economic growth will slow in the second half of the year. Commodity based currencies such as the Canadian and Australian dollar remained up against the greenback, with the Canadian closing yesterday's trade at its highest price since May.
American dollar slipped to its yearly minimums against the Japanese yen
5 August 2010 | Euro: The EUR/USD pair traded in the range of $1,3200-$1,3240. US Dollar: The released yesterday US statistics and the negative forecasts for the US fundamentals to be published increased speculations for the slow-down of the American economy rehabilitation rate. Therefore, according to the experts’ opinion, the FRS might introduce additional measures aimed to stabilize the economy.
Currency pairs technical review (August 05, 2010)
5 August 2010 | EURUSD: The pair may decline to 1.31748. GBPUSD: The pair will reach 1.60322 if the pair stays above 1.58543. USDCHF: The pair is trading below Pennant’s support. USDJPY: The pair is aiming to 85.161.
Negative US fundamentals reinforced the weakened outlook for the future growth
4 August 2010 | Tuesday saw unexpectedly negative publication of the Australian statistics. Monthly Building approvals in June were expected to rise for 2.0%, but the indicator dropped for 3.3%. The retail sales were predicted to increase for 0.4%. but its volume grew only for 0.2%. The Australian dollar dropped against the US dollar after the released decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave the principal rate unchanged at the level of 4.50%. The supporting statement of the RBA confirmed that the Australian labor market continued to stabilize and that the Australian monetary policy was considered to be correct.
Currency pairs technical review (August 04, 2010)
4 August 2010 | EURUSD: The pair may decline to 1.31748. GBPUSD: The pair is aiming to 1.60322 if the pair stays above 1.58543. USDCHF: The pair is trading below Pennant’s support. USDJPY: The pair is aiming to 85.161. AUDUSD: The pair is aiming to 0.92170, but may roll back to support at 0.90284.
Daily Forex Analysis (August 04, 2010)
4 August 2010 | The Dollar fell yesterday against most of its major counterparts amid concerns that Europe's and Asia's economic recovery will outpace that of the U.S. Moreover, two reports yesterday, a drop in pending home sales and dip in factory orders, have added to the recent string of disappointing U.S data. The number of contracts to purchase previously owned houses fell 2.6% in June, signifying that demand continues drop since the expiration of a homebuyer tax credit. Analysts had expected the index to fall 0.5%; however, June's figure is substantially better than the 30% drop seen in May. Meanwhile, U.S Factory Orders fell 1.2%, more than then expected dip of 0.2%.
Daily Forex Analysis (August 03, 2010)
3 August 2010 | The Euro eased slipped from a 3-month high against the Dollar this morning, as concerns eased over the strength of the U.S. economic recovery. Yesterday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke stated that the economy “is now expanding at a moderate pace.” The Fed Chairman went on to say, at the Southern Legislative Conference, that while the U.S. has “a considerable way to go” for a full recovery, “rising demand from households and businesses should help sustain growth" and that rising wages will most likely propel household spending in the next few quarters. The single European fell to $1.3149 during the late Asian session, a daily low.
Pound reaches its 5-months maximum against the US Dollar
3 August 2010 | The euro consolidated during the Monday morning trading in the range of $1.3050-$1.3090. Strong Euro-zone manufacturing fundamentals fueled the euro growth. Monday morning trading saw US dollar weakening as the expectations for the negative US data increased. The ISM Manufacturing for July was predicted to fall to 54.5 from its previous value of 56.2.
Currency pairs technical review (August 03, 2010)
3 August 2010 | EURUSD: The pair has reached Moving Average (200) at 1.31748 and rolling back to 1.31142, if this level is broken the pair may decline to 1.30277. GBPUSD: The pair is aiming to 1.60322 if the pair stays above 1.58543. USDCHF: The pair is trading below Pennant’s support.
Daily Forex Analysis (August 02, 2010)
2 August 2010 | On Friday, the U.S Dollar tumbled against the majority of its currency counterparts as a government report showed that U.S. economic growth slowed in the second quarter. According the Department of Commerce, the U.S. economy grew 2.4% in the second quarter after a revised 3.7% increase in the first three months of the year. Unfortunately for the U.S, this disappointing report was just one of many in a long string of weaker-than-expected figures for July. The news pushed the U.S. dollar to drop to an 8-month low against the Yen and a 6-month low against the Swiss Franc.
The Australian dollar stepped back from the previously reached maximums
2 August 2010 | As the risk appetite grew on Wednesday, the euro strengthened against major competitors. The stock markets growth as well as the positive fundamentals rendered support to the euro. The EUR/USD reached maximums around the $1,3040 level.
Currency market weekly review (July 26 - July 30, 2010)
2 August 2010 | The released stress-test results were as relevant for the market participants as the expectations for them. According to the stress-test results 7 European banks out of 91 banks from 20 countries, which were being examined, did not satisfy with the applied requirements and needed additional capital in the amount of 3.5 billion Euros. Nevertheless, according to the forecasts of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. the additional needed capital was expected to be 38 billion Euros, and Barclays Capital predicted the additional needed capital in the amount of 85 billion Euros. The negative impact pressured the euro on Monday and the EUR/USD pair showed minimums at the $1.2888 mark. On the contrary, the British Pound continued its rally from the previous week, and Friday’s positive UK fundamentals extended their influence on the sterling. The GBP/USD showed a steady growth to the $1.5500 maximums. The GBP Hometrack Housing Survey, released on Sunday, showed unexpected decrease, but according to the experts’ opinion, this drop in prices reflected a “turning point for the housing market”.
Currency pairs technical review (August 02 - 06, 2010)
2 August 2010 | EURUSD: The pair is aiming to the second level of Fibonacci retracement of 38.2% at 1.31136. GBPUSD: The pair has risen up to the channel line and trying to close higher. USDCHF: The pair has formed the Pennant on Daily chart. USDJPY: The pair is trading in the narrow range between 87.675 and 86.345.
The Euro rallies upon the released good economic indicators
30 July 2010 | The euro continued its rally on Thursday as the concerns over the US economy rehabilitation increase. The EUR/USD increased and reached maximums at the level of $1,3090.Positive Euro-zone fundamentals supported the euro against the Japanese yen. The Euro-zone Economic confidence showed growth to 101.3 in July, which was above the forecast of 99.1. German unemployment rate was at the level of its expectations at 7.6%, which was a decrease from the previous month’s rate of 7.7%. In addition, the Euro-zone Business climate indicator showed considerable growth above its forecasts as well.
Currency market weekly review (July 19 - July 23, 2010)
28 July 2010 | The past trading week saw diverse dynamics of the major pairs with fast changing directions. The traders were expecting the European stress-test results release, and various speculations effected the trading during the whole week. The European stress-test results were planned to be published on the 23-d of July. Some experts expressed their concerns that even if the stress-test results would turn out positive, market participants would consider these results inaccurate. At the same time according to the investors’ expectations, the release of the stress-test results would reduce the concerns over the Euro-zone budget deficit problems.
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World stock markets daily report (September 02, 2010)
A hump day rally sparked by strong Chinese PMI and Aussie GDP data was followed up by much better than expected US ISM and the sentiment was for sure “RISK-ON” this was also helped by WSJ article about further stimulus from Obama administration and rumours of massive $6bn asset reallocation trade out of German bunds (the bond bubble) into S&P 500 futures as it was the start of a new quarter.
Indian stock market daily closing report (September 02, 2010)
The markets traded within a tight range after the positive momentum witnessed for two days and ended with modest gains. All the major sectoral indices ended on a very flat note. Sugar counters witnessed a significant spike on decontrol reports. The Sensex closed at 18,238 up 34 points and the Nifty was at 5,486 up 14 points after making an intra-day high of 5,513. The Mid cap and Small cap indices were up by 0.78% and 1.11% respectively. The breadth of the market was positive and the total turnover recorded at Rs.1,02,680 Cr. The Sept future ended with 3 points discount
World stock markets news summary (US, UK, Europe, Asia) (September 02, 2010)
Nationwide House Prices SA (Aug) M/M -0.9% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. -0.5%); NSA (Aug) Y/Y 3.9% vs. Exp. 4.9% (Prev. 6.6%) (RTRS) UK house prices fell the most in six months in August as increased supply of property gave buyers more bargaining power, according to Nationwide Building Society.Britain’s deficit is constraining public finances, says IMF report. (Independent) Britain’s public finances remain “constrained” and among the most precarious of the major advanced economies, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned yesterday. Ranking nations by their “fiscal space” – the insulation that they have against further unforeseen shocks to their economic systems – the IMF said the UK was only one notch above those countries most commonly thought of as being bust.
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Godrej Properties IPO review and analysis by Angel Broking, 9 December 2009
Godrej Properties Limited (GPL) intends to develop its projects through joint development agreements with land owners. Under this asset-light model, GPL will enter into revenue, profit or area-sharing agreements with land owners, instead of an outright purchase of the land. This model avoids direct land dealings for GPL and the locking-up of extensive capital in land. Around 80% of GPL's existing land bank will be executed through joint developments with partners. The Godrej brand name has been associated with quality and strong corporate governance. Both of its existing listed entities, Godrej Consumer Products and Godrej Industries have given CAGR Returns of 48% and 77%, respectively, to investors since 2001. We believe that GPL could leverage its parentage brand (with respect to access to the land at Vikhroli and a strong customer preference towards it), assuring a timely delivery of execution. More than 50% of GPL's existing land bank is exposed towards township projects and in one location (Ahmedabad), which will be executed over the next ten years. Any delay in this execution or a fall in property prices in Ahmedabad will impact our NAV estimates, as 50% of our NAV is derived from this project.
JSW Energy Ltd IPO review and analysis by Nirmal Bang, 8 December 2009
JSW Energy Ltd. (JSWEL) is a power project development company, which is developing, and will operate and maintain, power projects in India. The company has two thermal power projects under operation, with a combined installed capacity of 860 MW. JSWEL is a part of the JSW Group, a leading business group in India. JSW Group has a presence in high growth sector like Steel, Energy, Aluminium, Cement, Infrastructure and Logistics. Post IPO holding of Promoter and Promoter Group would be 78.12%
JSW Energy IPO review and analysis by Angel Broking, 7 December 2009
JSW Energy (JSWEL) currently has operational capacity of 995MW and is in the process of executing projects with capacity of 2,655MW. In addition, the company has 7,740MW power generation projects at an early stage of development. A major portion (2,145MW) of JSWEL’s upcoming capacities is expected to be operational by FY2011E thereby providing near-term visibility. Out of the plants under construction, the company expects to commission 570MW by end FY2010E, while another 1,575MW is expected to get operational in FY2011E. Thus, a robust portfolio and near-term Revenue visibility is a major positive for the company.
Surgutneftegas: Currency rates are putting away the dividends..., 26 November 2009
We have revised our model of Surgutneftegas. The reason for that was the output of the 3Q 2009 report, correction of our suppositions of the company’s future development, and also the postponing of the target time and evaluation one year forward. Particularly, in our model of Surgutneftegas we have corrected the former forecast of income for the current year towards reduction: on EBIT – by 2.2%, on the net profit – by 21.5%. Mainly that happened due to the corrections on the operating estimates, and also due to the continuing strengthening of Russian ruble, which, considering significant dollar liquidity of the company, turns into negative currency exchange. Due to the negative currency exchange precisely For the second quarter in a row Surgutneftegas shows low level of the net profit. The fourth quarter, as we see it, will not make an exception and we expect negative currency exchange similar to the ones in the third quarter.
Gazprom: Having passed the bottom, 23 November 2009
We have revised our estimation of Gazprom’s shares. The reason for up-dating the company’s model was the report by IAS for 1H 2009, the budget draft for the next year and corrections of WACC method calculation. The provided financial report of the gas monopoly totally brought no surprises. As it has been expected, the second quarter was worse than the first one and likely was the weakest within the whole year. In 1H 2009 the financial estimates were affected by the decline of the gas sale at all markets by 22.3% average, and by the reduction of the retail price of gas by 9.6% in the state of the far abroad and by 24% in Russia. As a result within the six months of the year 2009 sales slipped by 24.1 bn USD or by 32.8% and formed 49.285 bn USD, operating profit and EBITDA showed reduction by 56.7% and 52.6% respectively and formed 12.98 bn USD and 16.18 bn USD.
Cox and Kings IPO review, analysis and recommendation, 18 November 2009
Cox and Kings proposes to make its IPO in the price band of Rs316-330/share, at a face value of Rs10 each, and to issue 1.85cr shares, of which 30.5lakh shares are offered for sale by Lehman Brothers Opportunity, Deutsche Securities Mauritius and Merrill Lynch Capital Markets Espana. Therefore, the fresh issue by the company will be to the extent of 1.55cr shares. The company plans to use the proceeds for debt repayment (Rs129.6cr), acquisitions and other strategic initiatives (Rs150cr), investment in overseas subsidiaries (Rs62.5cr), and investment in corporate offices and upgrading its existing operations (Rs60cr).
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