Stock Markets Review

Forex daily fundamental outlook: USD, EUR, INR (November 17, 2009)

Date: 17 November 2009
Contributed by Angel Broking

By Angel Broking

 

USD:

 

- The Dollar Index weakened sharply as a rise in risk appetite led to decreased demand for the low-yielding currency. The US Fed Chairman Ben Bemanke repeated in his statement yesterday to keep interest rates low for an extended period.


- But he acknowledged that the slump in the currency was raising asset prices. He also added that the Fed is attentive to changes in the dollar's value and will help ensure that the dollar is strong in the long-term. But this statement failed to provide any support to the currency.


- We expect the dollar index to bounce back today as technically support may lead to a bounce back in today's session.

 

 

EUR:

 

 

- The Euro advanced against the dollar on Monday as a rise in risk appetite led the currency higher. Also sharp weakness in the currency helped support a further upside in the Euro.


- The currency touched a high of 1.5015 but closed below the crucial 1.50 mark yesterday. It continues to struggle around this crucial level and further boost in risk appetite could take the currency higher.


- The Euro will take cues from the risk sentiments in the financial markets. We could witness slight weakness in the Euro today.

 

 

INR:

 

- The Indian Rupee fell on Monday despite rising in the early part of the trading session as a sudden surge in demand for the dollar from importers put a cap on the gains in the currency.


- The currency rose earlier on the back of gains in the domestic market coupled with dollar selling in the morning session. But the trend in the Rupee remains intact and we expect it to appreciate in the near-term.


- The benchmark equity index gained more than one percent to its highest close in nearly a month on the back of optimism about the economy. Weakness in the dollar index also triggered gains in the Indian currency on Monday.





Latest Stock Market Reports
US stock market opening report (March 19, 2010, Friday)

European bourses opened in positive territory, led by financials as Lloyds said its trading has been strong in the first 10 weeks of 2010. However, equities came under pressure later in the session following concerns regarding Greece not being able to get financial aid from the EU. Also adding to volatility is the fact that it is quadruple witching day today. German 10-year government bund futures gained strength into the European open on the back of ongoing concern regarding failure of Greece to get aid from the EU that led to widening of Greek/German 10-year government bond yield spread.



World stock markets daily report (March 19, 2010)

The S&P 500 closed a smidgen lower Thursday on speculation the Federal Reserve will  increase its discount rate which tempered the potential for gains spurred by further evidence that the economy is strengthening without stoking inflation. Bank of America and Schlumberger paced declines that sent financial and energy companies lower. In contrast Boeing, DuPont and 3M led gains that drove the Dow to an almost 18-month high after reports showed growth in Philadelphia manufacturing, a drop in jobless claims and no change in consumer prices. FedEx surged as its profit more than doubled and Nike rallied on higher-than-estimated earnings. So G5 near-zero rates continue to propel equity markets higher and help growth in the developing economies dramatically outstrip the G7. Meanwhile inflation is non-existent or at least very well behaved, so there is no pressure to tighten at the major central banks. With the unemployment rate at 9.7% my conviction is that the first Fed hike comes later rather than sooner.



Indian stock market daily closing report (March 19, 2010)

Market closed positive for fourth consecutive after a side way movement, There was huge buying seen in Telecom stocks like Bharati up by 3.65%, RCom up by 1.98% and Idea up by 2.08%. Market made an intraday High of 5270 and Low of 5237 and finally closed at 5263. The benchmark index Sensex closed at 17,519 up 59 points after making a high of 17,601 and low of 17,502. Among the broader indices - the BSE Midcap Index was up by 0.7% and Smallcap was up .37%. Today's market breadth was positive and Total Turnover was 93,932Cr which was . IT stocks were down today, TCS was down .82% , Financial Technologies was down .56%,Wipro was down .38% and Infosys Technologies was down by .35%.




Stocks Recommendations
Godrej Properties IPO review and analysis by Angel Broking, 9 December 2009
Godrej Properties Limited (GPL) intends to develop its projects through joint development agreements with land owners. Under this asset-light model, GPL will enter into revenue, profit or area-sharing agreements with land owners, instead of an outright purchase of the land. This model avoids direct land dealings for GPL and the locking-up of extensive capital in land. Around 80% of GPL's existing land bank will be executed through joint developments with partners. The Godrej brand name has been associated with quality and strong corporate governance. Both of its existing listed entities, Godrej Consumer Products and Godrej Industries have given CAGR Returns of 48% and 77%, respectively, to investors since 2001. We believe that GPL could leverage its parentage brand (with respect to access to the land at Vikhroli and a strong customer preference towards it), assuring a timely delivery of execution. More than 50% of GPL's existing land bank is exposed towards township projects and in one location (Ahmedabad), which will be executed over the next ten years. Any delay in this execution or a fall in property prices in Ahmedabad will impact our NAV estimates, as 50% of our NAV is derived from this project.

JSW Energy Ltd IPO review and analysis by Nirmal Bang, 8 December 2009
JSW Energy Ltd. (JSWEL) is a power project development company, which is developing, and will operate and maintain, power projects in India. The company has two thermal power projects under operation, with a combined installed capacity of 860 MW. JSWEL is a part of the JSW Group, a leading business group in India. JSW Group has a presence in high growth sector like Steel, Energy, Aluminium, Cement, Infrastructure and Logistics. Post IPO holding of Promoter and Promoter Group would be 78.12%

JSW Energy IPO review and analysis by Angel Broking, 7 December 2009
JSW Energy (JSWEL) currently has operational capacity of 995MW and is in the process of executing projects with capacity of 2,655MW. In addition, the company has 7,740MW power generation projects at an early stage of development. A major portion (2,145MW) of JSWEL’s upcoming capacities is expected to be operational by FY2011E thereby providing near-term visibility. Out of the plants under construction, the company expects to commission 570MW by end FY2010E, while another 1,575MW is expected to get operational in FY2011E. Thus, a robust portfolio and near-term Revenue visibility is a major positive for the company.

Surgutneftegas: Currency rates are putting away the dividends..., 26 November 2009
We have revised our model of Surgutneftegas. The reason for that was the output of the 3Q 2009 report, correction of our suppositions of the company’s future development, and also the postponing of the target time and evaluation one year forward. Particularly, in our model of Surgutneftegas we have corrected the former forecast of income for the current year towards reduction: on EBIT – by 2.2%, on the net profit – by 21.5%. Mainly that happened due to the corrections on the operating estimates, and also due to the continuing strengthening of Russian ruble, which, considering significant dollar liquidity of the company, turns into negative currency exchange. Due to the negative currency exchange precisely For the second quarter in a row Surgutneftegas shows low level of the net profit. The fourth quarter, as we see it, will not make an exception and we expect negative currency exchange similar to the ones in the third quarter.

Gazprom: Having passed the bottom, 23 November 2009
We have revised our estimation of Gazprom’s shares. The reason for up-dating the company’s model was the report by IAS for 1H 2009, the budget draft for the next year and corrections of WACC method calculation. The provided financial report of the gas monopoly totally brought no surprises. As it has been expected, the second quarter was worse than the first one and likely was the weakest within the whole year. In 1H 2009 the financial estimates were affected by the decline of the gas sale at all markets by 22.3% average, and by the reduction of the retail price of gas by 9.6% in the state of the far abroad and by 24% in Russia. As a result within the six months of the year 2009 sales slipped by 24.1 bn USD or by 32.8% and formed 49.285 bn USD, operating profit and EBITDA showed reduction by 56.7% and 52.6% respectively and formed 12.98 bn USD and 16.18 bn USD.

Cox and Kings IPO review, analysis and recommendation, 18 November 2009
Cox and Kings proposes to make its IPO in the price band of Rs316-330/share, at a face value of Rs10 each, and to issue 1.85cr shares, of which 30.5lakh shares are offered for sale by Lehman Brothers Opportunity, Deutsche Securities Mauritius and Merrill Lynch Capital Markets Espana. Therefore, the fresh issue by the company will be to the extent of 1.55cr shares. The company plans to use the proceeds for debt repayment (Rs129.6cr), acquisitions and other strategic initiatives  (Rs150cr), investment in overseas subsidiaries (Rs62.5cr), and investment in corporate offices and upgrading its existing operations (Rs60cr).

News
Gulfsands Petroleum, Borders and Southern, Cluff Gold news briefs, 19 March 2010

EMED Mining Public Ltd (EMED: AIM) review and analysis, 19 March 2010

Emerging Metals Ltd (EML: AIM) review and analysis, 19 March 2010

Empyrean Energy Plc (EME: AIM) review and analysis, 19 March 2010

European Nickel Plc (ENK: AIM) review and analysis, 19 March 2010



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