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Indian stock market morning report by Keynote Capitals (November 4, 2008, Tuesday, 7.00 a.m. GMT)
4 November 2008
Source: www.keynoteindia.net

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Economic and Corporate Developments

- The rupee fell in opening deals this morning to 48.85 per USD, on expectations of weakness in domestic stock markets, following weakness in some Asian markets.

- Crude oil prices are around $64.

- PSU banks, Union Bank of India and United Bank of India have cut lending rates by 25-50 bps. ICICI Bank is likely to review its interest rates in the next few days, after evaluating the impact of recent central bank steps on liquidity.

- NBFC Shriram Transport Finance (STFL) is likely to scale down its disbursements by 20-25% in second half of the financial year.

- Government-owned refiners have reduced prices of the jet fuel by 4.5%. However, airlines have not yet given any indications of fare cuts.

- Real estate major DLF has clarified that its JV with Hilton is “on a firm footing” and all plans for development of hotels stand as originally envisaged. DLF will exercise prudence in build out phase for the hotels business, which could be pushed back by 12-18 months from planned date owing to existing liquidity constraints.

- Slowdown in the automobile sector is a global phenomenon. October Sales of Ford Motors, the 2nd biggest US automaker, fell 30%, the 23rd decline in the past 24 months. Vehicle sales volumes of Tata Motors for the month of October dropped by 6%. Total vehicle sales of Mahindra & Mahindra declined for the month of October by 18% y-o-y. Sales of its passenger car Logan declined by as much as 52% y-o-y.

- Zylog Systems has acquired PEQ Consulting Inc, an infrastructure management company, and Fairfax Consulting Inc.

US markets overnight

The US markets ended down 0.1% after drifting between gains and losses before the presidential election. In economic news, US manufacturing activity in October fell to the lowest level since 1982, according to the ISM Index survey. The ISM Manufacturing Index declined 4.6 to 38.9 in October, which was worse than the expected reading of 41.0. The number indicates contraction in manufacturing and the overall economy. US construction spending also dropped down to 0.3. The Fed said in its quarterly survey that 85% of domestic banks have tightened lending standards on commercial and industrial loans. Approximately 60% of banks tightened standards on consumer credit card loans and 70% have tightened on prime mortgages. Credit markets continue to show improvement, however, with inter-bank lending rates, known as Libor, declining across most terms.

Views on markets today

Asian markets are giving a mixed performance today. While the Hang Seng is bearish after yesterday's rally, the Nikkei has gained over 4%. Japanese auto stocks reported strong gains today, in spite of the news of a major monthly drop in US auto sales in October 2008. Crude oil has again started its downward rally and is trading below $64 levels.

Indian markets were strong yesterday mainly due to FII buying. The Sensex rallied by over 5%. Nifty futures saw a net buying of Rs962Cr from FIIs yesterday. However, it may be premature to conclude that the bulls are back. Investors will await the US Presidential Election results, to be announced overnight. Till then markets may remain cautious. As no major economic and the financial results announcement is expected today, we may see stock specific action. These stocks would be Sun Pharma, IOC, Wipro, and Radico Khaitan. USFDA has said to have issued a warning to Detroit-based Caraco Pharma, a subsidiary of Sun Pharma on inefficiencies in its quality control unit. IOC will cut ATF prices by Rs2,100/kl on duty exemption. Other stocks to remain in focus would be Wipro (in the race to acquire Citi's tech arm) and Radico Khaitan (may lose its JV partner Diageo).






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