• European stock market, economy and companies update (October 01, 2015)

    Notes/Observations
    - PMI data out of Europe generally dissapointing
    - Chinese Mfg PMI beats, although remains in contractionary territory
    - Glencore shares continue to rise, wiping out weeks losses


    SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

    Equities
    Indices [Stoxx50 +0.7% at 3,120, FTSE +1.7% at 6,160, DAX +0.4% at 9,690, CAC-40 +1.1% at 4,506, IBEX-35 1.4% at 9,676, FTSE MIB 0.7% at 21,390, SMI 0.7% at 8,590, S&P 500 Futures +0.7%]

    - Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European stocks start the quarter moving higher; all groups supported; materials equities lead move higher; China official PMI data stabilized, giving new wing to risk sentiment; attention on US manufacturing data later today, ahead of tomorrow's NFP

    Sectors:
    - Energy [Repsol REP.ES +4.2% (asset sale)]
    - Financials [Deutsche Boerse DB1.DE +0.8% (broker move)]
    - Industrials [Fiat Chrysler FCA.IT +4.6% (confirms ipo for Ferrari), Volkswagen VOW3.DE +1.8% (cost-cutting measures)]
    - Materials [Johnson Matthey JMAT.UK +2.5% (asset sale)]
    - Telecom [Altice ATV.NL -4.1% (to sell shares)]

    Speakers
    (HU) Hungary Econ Min Lazar: Expects public debt falling to 76.1%/GDP by year end
    - Needs 'National Investment Fund' for GDP growth
    - Hungary needs to post at least 2% GDP growth
    - Q4 and 2016 hold surprises for Hungary's economy

    Currencies
    - FX markets against the dollar were rather mixed on the morning session with USD/JPY very quiet relative to the past few days; the EUR/USD relatively strong on session; with a highly volatile session of trade in cable following a better than expected PMI reading
    - The EUR/USD has had a generally volatile morning session, and traded between lows of 1.1135 to the current highs of 1.1167.
    - The GBP/USD trades in a range between 1.5107 at the morning lows to highs of 1.5151, with cable trading towards it highs of the session at the time of writing after a slightly better than expected UK manufacturing PMI figure
    - The USD/JPY is trading quiet in the morning session andremains range-bound trading between morning lows of 120.034 and to a highs of 120.276

    Fixed Income:
    Bund futures trade at 156.17, down 2 ticks as generally disappointing Mfg PMI data came out of Europe. Analysts see downside support at 155.68 initially, followed by 155.42, then 155.13. To the upside, analysts eye a break of today's highs at 156.21 to target 156.68 initially, with a break challenging 156.83 the August high.
    Today say Spain sell 4B in its 3,5 and 10 year SGBP the equivalent of 20K Bund futures contracts, and France sell ~8B in its 10 and 16 year Oats the equivalent of 70K Bund futures.
    UK Gilt futures trade at 119.04, down 2 ticks as after slightly better then expected Manufacturing PMI data. Analysts look for downside at 118.71, followed by 118.49. To the upside, initial resistance lies at 119.35 high with a break seeing continued strength to 119.46 contract highs.
    Today we see the DMO sell 4.0B in 5 year gilts, the equivalent of 22K gilt futures.
    Thursday's liquidity report showed Wednesday's excess liquidity rose to 503.4B, a rise of 20B from 483.4B prior. This was primarily due to AFs and MonPol portfolios falling to negative 72.3B. AFs are negative when the MonPol portfolios exceeds the liquidity absorbing effect of AFs. Use of the marginal lending facility rose to 231M from 54M. Todays report reflects last week TLTRO take up of 15.55B and 1.5B from the additional MRO take up.

    Political/In the Papers:
    None seen

    Looking Ahead
    All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
    - 06:00 (ZA) South Africa Q3 BER Consumer Confidence: No est v -15 prior
    - 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Aug Electricity Consumption Y/Y: No est v -2.2% prior; Electricity Production Y/Y: No est v -3.3% prior
    - 07:30 (US) Sept Challenger Job Cuts: No est v K prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.9% prior
    - 07:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank Meeting Minutes
    - 08:00 (CZ) Czech Sept Budget Balance (CZK): No est v 19.0B prior
    - 08:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Sept 25th: No est v $ prior
    - 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
    - 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 270Ke v 267K prior; Continuing Claims: 2236Ke v 2242K prior
    - 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
    - 09:00 (BR) Brazil Sept PMI Manufacturing: 45.0e v 45.8 prior
    - 09:00 (MX) Mexico Aug Leading Indicators M/M: No est v -0.09 prior
    - 09:30 (CA) Canada Sept Manufacturing PMI: No est v 49.4 prior
    - 09:30 (SG) Singapore Sept Purchasing Managers Index (PMI): 49.9e v 49.3 prior; Electronics Sector Index: No est v 49.0 prior
    - 09:45 (US) Sept Final Markit Manufacturing PMI: 53e v 53 prelim
    - 10:00 (US) Sept ISM Manufacturing: 50.6e v 51.1 prior; Prices Paid: 39.3e v 39.0 prior
    - 10:00 (US) Aug Construction Spending M/M: 0.5%e v 0.7% prior
    - 10:00 (MX) Mexico Aug Total Remittances: No est v $2.2B prior
    - 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
    - 10:30 (MX) Mexico Sept PMI Manufacturing: 52.2e v 52.4 prior
    - 12:00 (IT) Italy Sept New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v 10.7% prior
    - 12:00 (IT) Italy Sept Budget Balance: No est v -7.8B prior
    - 13:00 (MX) Mexico Sept IMEF Manufacturing Index: No est v 51.8 prior; Non-Manufacturing Index: No est v 49.5 prior
    - 14:00 (BR) Brazil Sept Trade Balance: $2.5Be v $2.7B prior; Total Exports: No est v $15.5B prior; Total Imports: No est v $12.8B prior
    - 17:00 (CO) Colombia July Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP): Y/Y: No est v 3.1% prior
    - 19:00 (KR) South Korea Aug Current Account Balance: No est v $10.1B prior; Balance of Goods (BOP): No est v $10.9B prior
    - 19:00 (KR) South Korea Sept CPI M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.9%e v 0.7% prior; CPI Core Y/Y: No est v 2.1% prior
    - 19:30 (JP) Japan Aug Jobless Rate: 3.3%e v 3.3% prior; Job-To-Applicant Ratio: No est v 1.21 prior; Overall Household Spending Y/Y: 0.4%e v -0.2% prior
    - 21:30 (AU) Australia Aug Retail Sales M/M: 0.4%e v -0.1% prior


    Economic data
    (IE) IRELAND SEPT MANUFACTURING PMI: 53.8 V 53.6 PRIOR (28th straightmonth of expansion)
    (RU) RUSSIA SEPT MANUFACTURING PMI: 49.1 V 47.9 PRIOR (10th month in contraction)
    (SE) SWEDEN SEPT PMI MANUFACTURING: 53.3 V 54.3E (25 straight months of expansion)
    (NO) NORWAY SEPT PMI MANUFACTURING: 47.3 V 44.0E (fifth month of contraction)
    (PL) POLAND SEPT PMI MANUFACTURING: 50.9 V 52.4E (12th month of expansion)
    (TR) TURKEY SEPT PMI MANUFACTURING: 48.8 V 49.3 PRIOR (2nd straight month of contraction)
    (HU) HUNGARY SEPT MANUFACTURING PMI: 55.8 V 50.7 PRIIOR (second straight month of expansion)
    (NL) NETHERLANDS SEPT PMI MANUFACTURING: 53.0 V 53.9 PRIOR (27th month of expansion)
    (ES) SPAIN SEPT MANUFACTURING PMI: 51.7 v 52.8E (22 straight month of expansion, but 21-month low)
    (CH) Swiss August Retail Sales Y/Y: -0.3% v -0.1% prior
    (CH) SWISS SEPT MANUFACTURING PMI: 49.5 V 51.8E (returns to contraction after one month of expansion)
    (CZ) CZECH REPUBLIC SEPT MANUFACTURING PMI: 55.5 V 56.6 PRIOR (28th month of expansion)
    (IT) ITALY SEPT MANUFACTURING PMI: 52.7 V 53.3E (8 straight months of expansion)
    (FR) FRANCE SEPT FINAL MANUFACTURING PMI: 50.6 V 50.4E (confirms second month of expansion)
    ((DE) GERMANY SEPT FINAL MANUFACTURING PMI: 52.3 V 52.5E (confirms 10th month of expansion)
    (EU) EURO ZONE SEPT FINAL MANUFACTURING PMI: 52.0 V 52.0E
    (GR) GREECE SEPT MANUFACTURING PMI: 43.3 V 39.1 PRIOR (12th month of contraction)
    (UK) SEPT MANUFACTURING PMI: 51.5 V 51.3E

    Fixed Income Issuance:
    - (ES) SPAIN DEBT AGENCY (TESORO) SELLS TOTAL 4.05B VS. 3.5-4.5B INDICATED RANGE IN 2018, 2020 AND 2025 BONDS
    - (FR) FRANCE DEBT AGENCY (AFT) SELLS TOTAL 8.0B VS. 7.0-8.0B INDICATED RANGE IN 2025, AND 2041 OATS

    [I]Contributed by Trade The News[/I]
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