• European stock market, economy and companies update (September 24, 2015)

    Notes/Observations
    - Norway cuts deposit rate be 25BP to 0.75% (unexpected)
    - German IFO Business climate headline comes in higher
    - Taiwan cuts interest rate (First cut in 17 meetings)
    - Press reports BMW diesel also exceeds emission limits significantly - German press


    SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

    Equities
    Indices [Stoxx50 +0.1%, FTSE +0.1%, DAX +0.3%, CAC-40 +0.1%, IBEX-35 0.4%, FTSE MIB +0.3%, SMI -0.5%, S&P 500 Futures 0.0%]

    - Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European stocks opened largely flat; better German date contrasted with global growth concerns; automakers lead initial gains; energy stocks drop; BMW affected by German press reports could have worse emissions than VW; focus on Fed Chair Yellen comments later in session

    Sectors:
    - Consumer discretionary [Thomas Cook TCG.UK +4.0% (maintains guidance)]
    - Engergy [Abengoa ABG.ES +4.1% (close to capital raise)]
    - Finanicals [Banca Monte dei Paschi BMPS.IT +8.2% (agreement with Nomura)]
    - Industrials [Volkswagen VOW3.DE +2.5%(CEO resigns), Kaz Minerals KAZ.UK +2.4% (broker move), BMW BMW.DE -4.3% (emissions worries)]

    Speakers
    - (EU) ECB's Liikanen (Finland): ECB ready to take all necessary measures; Bond purchase program can be expanded if needed
    - (PH) Philippines Central Bank Gov Tetangco: Reiterates a benign CPI, growth momentum gave room to keep policy
    - (JP) Japan PM Abe: Doing utmost to end deflation; to work harder on economy, to implement sales tax hike next year as planned
    - (NO) Norway Central bank (Norges) Gov Olsen: Growth outlook for Norway has weakened further
    - Says key policy rate could be reduced further
    - Growth prospects have wekened and inflation expected to abate
    - No limit to how low rates can go
    - (TW) Taiwan Central Bank: Global growth not yet recovering steadily
    - (FI) Bank of Finland (Pankki) Liikanen: Economy growing slower than European average

    Currencies
    - FX markets against the dollar experienced a volatile session after a plethora of macroeconomic data came out in the mornings session
    - The EUR/USD trades in a range between 1.1217 at the morning highs to lows of 1.1183. EUR/USD found a bid in the earlier morning session after Germany posted stronger than expected IFO and business expectations figures. The euro trades nearer its lows of the morning session after ECBs Liikanen's comments that inflation could be slower than expected.
    - The GBP/USD remains range-bound between the highs of 1.5281 to lows of 1.5256 in the morning session
    - The EUR/SEK trades highly volatile this morning after lower than expected Swedish consumer confidence but higher manufacturing confidence readings
    - The USD/JPY also trades highly volatile on the session ranging between a highs of 0.008337 to lows of 0.008325. This comes after Abe came out with comments on both deflation and growth

    Fixed Income:
    - Bund futures trade at 155.82, down 10 ticks after better headline IFO data lifted yields. A continued move lower looks to target 155.71 initially, followed by 155.59. Yesterday's breakout level of 155.51 is expected to hold after this. To the upside, analysts eye 156.49 initially, followed by 156.83 the August high.
    - UK Gilt futures trades 118.69, flat on the day, in relatively quiet trade. Analysts still look for downside retracement to target 118.49, followed by 118.14. To the upside, a break of 118.91 looks for continued strength to 119.35 contract highs.
    - Thursday's liquidity report showed Wednesday's excess liquidity fell to 474.8B, a drop of 5.6B from 480.4B prior. This was primarily due to AFs and MonPol portfolios falling to negative 60.7B. AFs are negative when the MonPol portfolios exceeds the liquidity absorbing effect of AFs. Use of the marginal lending facility rose to 31M from 64M.

    Looking Ahead
    All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
    - 06:00 (IL) Israel Aug Unemployment Rate: No est v 5.3% prior
    - 07:00 (CZ) Czech Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: expected to leave both Repurchase Rate and EUR/CZK cross unchanged at 0.05% and around 27.00 respectively
    - 07:00 (BR) Brazil Sept FGV Consumer Confidence: No est v 80.6 prior
    - 08:00 (BR) Brazil Aug Unemployment Rate: 7.7%e v 7.5% prior
    - 08:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Sept 18th: No est v $365.1B prior
    - 08:00 (CL) Chile Aug PPI M/M: No est v -2.8% prior
    - 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
    -08:30 (US) Aug Durable Goods Orders: -2.3%e v +2.2% prior (revised from 2.0%); Durables Ex Transportation: 0.1%e v 0.4% prior (revised from 0.6%); Capital Goods Orders (Non-defense/ex-aircraft): -0.2%e v +2.1% prior (revised from 2.2%); Capital Goods Shipments (Non-defense/ex-aircraft): 0.5%e v 0.6% prior; Durables Ex-Defense; No est v 1.0% prior
    - 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 275Ke v 264K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.24Me v 2.237M prior
    - 08:30 (US) Aug Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index: 0.24e v 0.34 prior
    - 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
    - 09:00 (IL) Israel Central Bank (BOI) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Base Rate unchanged at 0.10%
    - 09:00 (BE) Belgium Sept Business Confidence: -5.3e v -5.1 prior
    - 09:00 (MX) Mexico July Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) Y/Y: 2.2%e v 3.1% prior
    - 10:00 (US) Aug New Home Sales: 515Ke v 507K prior
    - 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
    - 11:00 (US) Sept Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity: -6e v -9 prior
    - 12:00 (FR) France Aug Jobseekers Net Change: +0.5Ke v -1.9K prior; Total Jobseekers: 3.552Me v 3.552M prior
    - 15:00 (AR) Argentina Aug Industrial Production M/M: No est v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 0.6%e v 0.7% prior
    - 17:00 (KR) South Korea Sept Consumer Confidence: No est v 102 prior
    - 19:30 (JP) Japan Aug National CPI Y/Y: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior; CPI Ex Fresh Food Y/Y: -0.1%e v 0.0% prior; CPI Ex Food, Energy Y/Y: 0.7%e v 0.6% prior
    - 19:30 (JP) Japan Sept Tokyo CPI Y/Y: -0.1%e v +0.1% prior; CPI Ex Fresh Food Y/Y: -0.2%e v +0.1% prior; CPI Ex Food, Energy Y/Y: 0.5%e v 0.4% prior
    - 19:50 (JP) Japan Aug PPI Services Y/Y: 0.5%e v 0.6% prior


    Economic data
    - (NL) Netherlands Sept Producer Confidence Index: 3.8 v 3.5 prior
    - (DE) GERMANY OCT GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 9.6 V 9.8E
    - (FI) Finland Aug PPI M/M: -1.1% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: -2.2% v -1.1% prior
    - (FI) Finland Aug Preliminary Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -0.3% v 1.7% prior
    - (FR) FRANCE SEPT BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 100 V 99E; MANUFACTURING CONFIDENCE: 104 V 103E
    - (CZ) Czech Sept Business Confidence: 13.3 v 13.1 prior; Consumer Confidence Index: 1.0 v 1.3 prior
    - (JP) Japan Aug Convenience Store Sales Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.2% prior
    - (SE) SWEDEN SEPT CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 98.7 V 99.0E; MANUFACTURING CONFIDENCE: 110.1 V 103.5E
    - (SE) Sweden Aug PPI M/M: +0.2% v -1.1% prior; Y/Y: -1.4% v -0.6% prior
    - (NO) NORWAY CENTRAL BANK (NORGES) CUTS DEPOSIT RATES BY 25BPS TO 0.75%; NOT EXPECTED
    - (DE) GERMANY SEPT IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE: 108.5 V 107.9E; CURRENT ASSESSMENT SURVEY: 114.0 V 114.7E
    - (PH) PHILIPPINES CENTRAL BANK (BSP) LEAVES OVERNIGHT BORROWING RATE UNCHANGED AT 4.00%, AS EXPECTED
    - (IT) ITALY JUN INDUSTRIAL ORDERS M/M: +3.0% V -2.5% PRIOR; Y/Y: +11.2% V -0.5% PRIOR
    - (IT) ITALY JUN INDUSTRIAL SALES M/M: 0.7% V 1.2% PRIOR; Y/Y: +3.4% V 2.4% PRIOR
    - (TW) Taiwan Aug M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 6.01% v 6.1% prior; M1Money Supply Y/Y: 5.9% v 5.7% prior
    - (UK) AUG BBA LOANS FOR HOUSE PURCHASE: 46.7K V 47.0KE
    - (HK) HONG KONG AUG TRADE BALANCE (HKD): -25.1B V -28.4B PRIOR
    - (IT) Italy July Retail Sales M/M: 0.4% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.7% prior

    Fixed Income Issuance:
    None seen

    Contributed by Trade The News
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