• Russian stock market daily evening report (August 26, 2015, Wednesday)


    Market today. Situation at the global financial markets is gradually stabilizing after the “Black Monday”. Given is supported by the measured adopted by China in order to support the financial system – yesterday’s cut of the rate and reduction of the norms of reserves required, along with the direct inflow of the liquidity “Short-term Liquidity Operations (SLO) for 140 bn yuan (21.80 bn USD). ECB is conducting, as it normally does, oratory interventions: according to the statement by the member of the board of ECB Peter Prat, regulator was ready to build up the volume of QE or prolong its validity term if necessary. Under given conditions, the released macrostats provide for minimal impact on the financial grounds, however, note the 2% growth of the durable goods orders in US in July (while reduction by 0.4% has been expected). Russian market managed to stay near the levels of yesterday close at MMICEX, RTS index got slightly weaker. The notes of NOVATEK, Uralkaliy (quotes still are into winning back the news on buyback), OGK-2 and ALROSA (upcoming release of the half-year report of the company on August 28, besides, after revision of MSCI Russia 10/40, weight of the stock has been upped slightly), RusHydro, Norilsk Nickel, M.Video (at the back of the more than 2xx growth of the 1H profit). Bashneft, Diksi, SOLLERS, TMK were underperforming.

    Market tomorrow. Oil reserves numbers, posted in the US confirmed the estimation of API on the significant reduction (by 5.45 mn bbl instead of the consensus at 1.45 mn bbl), however, the reduction turned out to be below the API forecast. Last week the oil extraction drop continued (11K bbl per day), however, the rate have decelerated vs the previous week. Oil did correct down slightly after the reserves volume has been posted, therefore, we do not exclude oil quotes growth by the trade close in the US, which would provide support to the Russian market tomorrow. Within the nearest days, the conference in Jackson Whole will be an important driver (August 27-29).


    Market today. Wednesday the debt market was calm, waiting for the numbers on the oil extraction volume in the US. Ruble loans reduced mildly, winning back the yesterday’s roll back of the oil after the morning bounce. OFZ lost 30 bps average; yield grew 3-5 bps. In the corporate segment, selloff went on RSHB-21, Alfa MB-8, and Bashneft MB-5. Along with that, trade volume reduced vs the previous day. Eurobonds closed the daytime session with mild growth in the corporate segment. Russia-43 slipped 15 bps to 89.2% of the nominal; Russia-23 grew 25 bps to 93.3% of the nominal.

    Market tomorrow. Data on the oil disappointed the markets, despite the indicated reduction of the extraction volume in the US. Therefore, we assume that bounce is possible within the evening hours, supporting the domestic market Thursday. Otherwise, we expect preservation of negative dynamics until the end of the week.

    FX market

    Market today. Wednesday, the oil market was relatively stable. Ruble benefited from that successful and kept dollar below 70 RUB.

    Market tomorrow. Nevertheless, the American currency does not intend to rush below 70 RUB and is likely to return to given levels whatever opportunity. The tax period close at the domestic market will be supporting that.

    Contributed by Veles Capital
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