Stocks
Market today. The foreign background developed mildly positively for the Russian market today as the European grounds were climbing at the back of the Fed session results - investors came to the thought that probability of the rate upping in September has reduced and the process of upping would be gradual and slow as the inflation targets is to be reached only by 2017 according to the statement of Fed. The oil continued moving upwards - aside the market-wide positive, given has additionally been supported by the numbers on reduced reserves and most importantly - the extraction volumes in the US. The Russian market traded showing growth of MICEX, dollar RTS found itself under pressure of ruble' dip. LSR, NMTP, Megafon (at the back of the IAS report for 2Q 2015 that was taken positively by the market), PIK, Severstal were the top gainers. Yandex (at the back of the report), M.Video, NOVATEK, and Tatneft have underperformed the market.
Market tomorrow. GDP of the US posted today turned out to be slightly worse than expected, however, at that, the numbers for 1Q have been revised upwards, meaning, the growth for 1H have actually turned out to be above targets. Numbers on PCE posted today are also interesting as the index grew 1.8% instead of the expected 1.6%. The given index has recently been a priority for Fed in terms of estimating the inflation, which still is low. Acceleration of the consumption prices' growth in terms of PCE nearly to the targeted 2% rises the probability of the rate upping by Fed at the next session. The new reason of revising expectations on the rate might be provided by the PMI in Chicago and Consumers Confidence by Michigan University - progressing improvement of the situation in the american economy might support strengthening of dollar and pressure the commodity markets.
Bonds
Market today. The domestic market ignored the oil bounce yesterday and progressed down on Thursday. OFZ lost about 30-50 bps, yield grew 2-5 bps. In the corporate segment, selling went on the loans RSHB-15, Systema MB-1. At the meantime, Eurobonds have mainly added in price, however, selloff has prevailed in the sovereign segment. Russia-43 slipped 25 bps and formed 94.9%, Russia-23 - 10 bps to 97.75% of the nominal.
Market tomorrow. Friday, the market conjuncture is unlikely to change radically due to preserving low oil prices. The results of the CBR session might affect the domestic market.
FX market
Market today. After the Fed session' results have been posted, the american currency has been climbing at the Russian market, nevertheless, dollar did not manage to get close to 60 RUB.
Market tomorrow. Friday, the investors' attention will be directed to the results of the Russian regulator' session. Deceleration of the annual inflation reduction rates Nd currency risks established suppositions for introducing corrections to the interest policy of CBR. The regulator might take a break in cutting the rate or even hint on slight tightening of the policy. In that case, ruble would gain a short-term support in its fight with the american currency for the level of 60 RUB. In case of another cut of the key rate, dollar might once again fixate above 60 RUB.
Contributed by Veles Capital
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