Stocks
Market today. The Russian market showed increased volatility on the last trade day of the month. The decision of CBR to up the key rate by 50 bps was one of the reasons. Despite the fact that given result was not a surprise for the market participants, the RTS index was under pressure. The main driver of the given dynamics was formed by the further weakening of ruble, indicated until the decision had been announced, and after that the drop resumed with greater pace.
The oil preserved its former intraday volatility, being sensitive to the change of dollar rate. At that, the oil quotes bounce up is early to indicate. September is coming soon and so does the time of possible rate upping by the Fed. Therefore, it is fair to expect stronger impact of the given factor on the markets, the commodities in particular. As ruble was slipping down, the exporters outperformed the market: Alrosa (+3.8%), Akron (+2.8%), Uralkaliy (+2.9%), Severstal (+2.8%). Ruble weakening along with oil quotes staying unchanged allowed the oil names climb: Lukoil (+3.6%), Surgutneftegas (+3.6%), Rosneft (+2.5%).
Market tomorrow. We expect the decision of CBR to make further negative impact on the rate of ruble, therefore, stock of the importers still outperforms the market. At the meantime, the bank sector might be one of the outsiders.
Bonds
Market today. Friday, the debt market was calm. Ruble loans closed with light adding after the decision of CBR to cut the rate by 50 bps. OFZ added about 20-50 bps, yield reduced 2-3 bps. In the corporate segment, buying went on the loans VTB MB-43, rzd-15, VEB- Leasing-11. Eurobonds have also added slightly lacking serious drivers. Russia-43 added 5 bps and formed 94.95% of the nominal, Russia-23 remained at the level of 97.7% of the nominal.
Market tomorrow. Next week, the market will remain in the reign of the cheap oil. Therefore, for now we see no grounds for optimism rise.
Contributed by Veles Capital