US stock market, economy and companies update (July 15, 2015)

The Shanghai Composite resumed declines today for the first time in four sessions (a raft of China June econ data comes out tonight), and European equities spent most of the morning in the red as a risk-off tone dominated global trading. The Iran nuclear deal is dominating headlines, although the response in oil markets has been muted. In the US, JPMorgan have disclosed inline quarterly results. As of writing, the DJIA is up 0.28%, the S&P500 is up 0.32% and the Nasdaq is up 0.60%.

Iran and the P5+1 have reached a preliminary nuclear agreement, teeing up the withdrawal of western sanctions and Iran's return to the global oil market. President Obama and Iran President Rouhani welcomed the deal, while predictably Israel President Netanyahu and the Congressional Republicans condemned it. Both houses of Congress get to vote on the agreement within 60 days, leaving its fate undecided for now. WTI stabbed toward the $50 handle on the initial announcement, but the front-month contract was right back around $52.50 midmorning, right in the middle of the trading range seen over the last two weeks. Brent is around $57.80, down about 0.7% on the day.

The June US advanced retail sales report zigzagged lower from the decent May gain. June retail sales were -0.3% and May retail sales were revised downward to +1.0% from a previous estimate of +1.2%. Eight out of 13 categories reported a sales drop. Auto sales declined 1.1%; excluding that volatile category, retail sales fell by 0.1%. Apparel sales dropped 1.5% while home furnishings were down 1.6%. One real surprise was a 0.2% decline in the food services.

There has been plenty of political jockeying in Athens over the last 24 hours as Greek PM Tsipras rallies support ahead of Wednesday's parliamentary vote on the new bailout plan. The left wing of his ruling Syriza party and his junior coalition partner, the right-wing Independent Greeks party, both indicated they would not support the new plan. As Syriza splinters, reports suggest that Tsipras will be able to pass the vote while also having to reshuffle his government, and some suggest he may resign. The IMF disclosed a report that found Greece needs debt support far beyond what Europe has been willing to consider to date. According to the IMF, without haircuts Greece would require a 30-year grace period on its entire debt owed to Europe to achieve debt sustainability.

JPMorgan and Wells Fargo both offered second-quarter results that were broadly in line with expectations. JPM's adjusted earnings were a bit above, however analysts said they were in line with the $1.45 estimate when taking various items into consideration. WFC's revenue was about -2% y/y. Shares of WFC and JPM are both up about 1% each.

***Looking Ahead***
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories
- 17:00 (CL) Chile Central Bank (BCCh) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Overnight Rate Target unchanged at 3.00%
- 19:00 (KR) South Korea Jun Unemployment Rate: 4.0%e v 3.9% prior
- 20:15 (US) Fed's George (non-voter, hawk) speaks on economy in Kansas City
- 22:00 (CN) China Jun Retail Sales Y/Y: 10.2%e v 10.1% prior; Retail Sales YTD Y/Y: 10.3%e v 10.4% prior
- 22:00 (CN) China Jun Industrial Production Y/Y: 6.0%e v % prior; Industrial Production YTD Y/Y: 6.2%e v % prior
- 22:00 (CN) China Jun YTD Fixed Assets Urban Assets Y/Y: 11.2%e v 11.4% prior
- 22:00 (CN) China Q2 GDP Q/Q: 1.6%e v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: 6.8%e v 7.0% prior; GDP YTD Y/Y: 6.9%e v 7.0% prior
- 23:00 (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Policy Statement


***Economic data***
- (US) Jun NFIB Small Business Optimism: 94.1 v 98.5e
- (US) Goldman Economist Chain Store Sales w/e July 11th w/w: -1.0%; y/y: +1.9%
- (PL) Poland Jun M3 Money Supply M/M: 1.1% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 8.3% v 7.8%e
- (PL) Poland May Current Account Balance May €1.2B v €0.4Be; Trade Balance: €1.0B v €0.0Be
- (BR) Brazil May Retail Sales M/M: -0.9% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: -4.5% v -3.7%e
- (BR) Brazil May Broad Retail Sales M/M: -1.8% v -0.7%e; Y/Y: -10.4% v -9.1%e
- (US) June Advance Retail Sales M/M: -0.3% v +0.3%e; Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: -0.1% v +0.5%e; Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas: -0.2% v +0.4%e; Retail Sales Control Group: -0.1% v +0.3%e
- (US) June Import Price Index M/M: -0.1% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: -10.0% v -9.8%e
- (CA) Canada Jun Teranet/National Bank HPI M/M: 1.4% v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: 5.1% v 4.6% prior; House Price Index: 172.27 v 169.97prior
- (US) Weekly Redbook Sales w/e July 11th: +1.4% y/y, July MTD m/m: +0.3%
- (US) May Business Inventories: 0.3% v 0.3%e

[I]Contributed by Trade The News[/I]