US equities saw wild swings after yesterday's Fed decision not to raise rates, and ended Thursday lower. Stocks were down sharply in Europe this morning, with both the CAC and DAX off more than 3% a piece at one point, US and European indices have bounced a bit higher mid-morning. Quad witching is greating boosting trading volumes. Bond yields were dramatically compressed, with the German 10-year bund down as much as 13 bps, UK Gilt down nearly 13 bps and the 10-year UST off 4.6 bps, although yields have widened as equities bounce higher. As of writing, the DJIA is down 1.1%, the S&P500 is off 1.0% and the Nasdaq is down 0.7%.
The FOMC's vote to hold rates steady was nine to one, with Lacker the dissenter. The central justification for the hold was that "recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term." At the post-decision press conference, Fed Chair Yellen emphasized that every meeting would be live for rates and reiterated the FOMC cannot wait until its policy objectives are fully achieved before tightening. The FOMC statement did acknowledge improvements in the US economy: it dropped language describing business fixed investment are soft, job gains were upgraded to 'solid' from 'picking up,' while unemployment was downgraded to 'declining' from 'steady.' It reiterated that inflation continues to run below the committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices.
The dollar has seen big losses due to the Fed hold, with EUR/USD rising as high as 1.1440 from 1.1300 yesterday afternoon. The pair gave up some gains during the Asia session, then traded up to 1.1460 during European hours, before sinking back below 1.1400 as of writing. Crude prices have fallen from two-week highs along with the dollar, with WTI around $45.40 today after testing toward $48 earlier in the week. Energy and materials stocks are a major source of weakness this morning, with the oil majors deep in the red, steel names lower, led by the ADR of ArcelorMittal down 5%.
In equity news, Adobe met or beat expectations in its third quarter but its guidance for fourth quarter was pretty weak. Shares of ADBE had lost as much as 3% in the premarket, however positive analyst comments have helped the shares recover and ADBE is up 4% as of writing. Shares of Freeport McMoran were down nearly 10% at their worst point earlier after the firm closed out its $1.0 billion equity offering from August and said it would also offer another $1.0 billion in stock. AK Steel has given up most of its 7.5% gain despite its decent guidance for third quarter, while most of the other steel stocks are down 3-4% on the Fed decision.
Looking Ahead
- 12:00 (US) Q2 Household Change in Net Worth: No est v $1.629T prior
- 13:00 (US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count data
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Q2 GDP Q/Q: No est v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.3%ev 1.1% prior
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia July Trade Balance: -$1.0Be v -$0.8B prior; Total Imports: $4.5Be v $4.2B prior
- (UR) Ukraine Q2 Final GDP Y/Y: No est v -14.7% prelim
- (CO) Colombia Aug Retail Confidence: No est v 18.2 prior; Industrial Confidence: No est v 0.1 prior
- (PE) Peru Central Bank 3Q Inflation Report
- (BR) Brazil July Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) M/M: -0.3%e v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: -4.4%e v -1.2% prior
Economic Data
- (IN) India Weekly Forex Reserves w/e Sept 11th $351.4B v $349.0B prior
- (CA) Canada Aug CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.3%e; Consumer Price Index: 127.3 v 127.3e
- (CA) Canada Aug CPI Core M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.1%e
- (CA) Canada Aug CPI (Seasonally Adj) M/M: 0.0% v 0.2% prior; CPI Core (Seasonally adj) M/M: 0.1% v 0.2% prior
- (MX) Mexico Q2 Aggregate Supply and Demand: 3.0% v 3.1%e
- (RU) Russia Aug PPI M/M: 0.1% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: 13.7% v 13.7%e
- (US) Aug Leading Index: 0.1% v 0.2%e
- (BR) Brazil Sept CNI Industrial Confidence: 35.7 v 37.1 prior
[I]Contributed by Trade The News[/I]