• US stock market, economy and companies update (September 30, 2015)

    US stocks are on a tear higher today, the final day of the third quarter, as overall trading volumes remain about 18% below average. Note that the 10-year UST yield has come in again after giving up a few basis points. Despite the gains, analysts point out that the DJIA would need to gain 1,570 points to just finish the quarter unchanged, while the S&P 500 would need to gain about 180 points to break even. Even with today's gains so far, it still looks like Q3 will end up seeing the worst performance in four years. As of writing, the DJIA is up 1.25%, the S&P500 is up 1.40% and the Nasdaq is up 1.66%.

    The September ADP report was strong and steady, with the +200K reading the strongest showing since June. The September NFP consensus estimate stands at +197K as of writing. The September Chicago PMI index was not positive, with the survey dropping to its lowest level since May and registering its first contraction since June. There was notable weakness in the prices paid and production components, with the two measures hitting very low levels last seen in the wake of the Great Recession in July 2009. New orders and backlog measures are both in contraction.

    WTI crude remains stuck around $45 this morning following big, unexpected builds in the weekly API and DoE petroleum inventory reports. The two reports registered their first gain in crude inventories in three weeks. In the meantime, Russian forces have begun bombing targets in Syria, claiming they are attacking ISIS even as Syrian opposition sources say the Russian attacks hit rebel forces in three cities. Brent crude is seeing very modest gains, to $48.70.

    The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its repo rate for the fourth time in 2015 at its scheduled meeting today, cutting more than expected, to a 4.5-year low of 6.75% from 7.25% prior. The RBI has been under pressure to boost growth after inflation hit a record low of 3.6% in August due to falling commodity prices. "In India, a tentative economic recovery is underway, but is still far from robust," said RBI governor Rajan. USD/INR has sunk to fresh six-week lows after the move, around 65.5.

    In equity news, Costco has recovered its losses and gained about 1% after the firm's revenue miss and negative comps in its fourth quarter report knocked the name lower. Shares of Ralph Lauren are up 13.6% after CEO Ralph Lauren stepped aside to be replaced by The Gap's Stefan Larsson. Lauren will remain active at company, taking on the roles of chairman and chief creative officer.

    In M&A news, Synaptics reportedly rejected a $110/shr takeover offer from a Chinese investor group. The report suggested the company might be more willing at a price in the mid-$120's range. EZChip is up big after agreeing to be acquired by Mellanox Technologies for $25.50/shr in cash, in a total deal valued around $811M. Western Digital is up more than 15% after China's Unisplendour acquired $3.7B of newly issued common stock at $92.50/shr, giving it a 15% stake in the company. STX, SNDK and HTCH are all up 6-7% on the news.

    Looking Ahead
    - 12:00 (US) USDA Quarterly Report
    - 15:00 (AR) Argentina Aug Construction Activity M/M: No est v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 13.3% prior
    - 15:00 (US) Fed Chair Yellen with member Bullard speak on Community Banking in St. Louis
    - 19:00 (KR) South Korea Aug Industrial Production M/M: No est v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.3% prior
    - 19:50 (JP) Japan Q3 Tankan Large Non-Manufacturer Index: 2e v 23 prior; Large Non-Manufacturer Outlook Survey: 21e v 21 prior
    - 20:00 (KR) South Korea Sept Trade Balance: No est v $4.4B prior; Exports Y/Y: No est v -14.7% prior; Imports Y/Y: No est v -18.3% prior
    - 20:00 (US) Fed's Brainard speaks on Community Banking in St. Louis
    - 21:00 (CN) China Sept Manufacturing PMI (official): No est v 49.7 prior; Non-manufacturing (Services) PMI: No est v 53.4 prior
    - 21:35 (JP) Japan Sept Final PMI Manufacturing: No est
    - 21:40 (KR) South Korea PMI Manufacturing: No est v 47.9 prior
    - 21:45 (CN) China Sept Final Caixin PMI Manufacturing: No est v ## prelim; PMI Composite: No est v 48.8 prior; PMI Services: No est v 51.5 prior

    Economic Data
    - 06:00 (PT) Portugal Aug Retail Sales M/M: No est v 1.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.6% prior
    - 06:00 (PT) Portugal Aug Industrial Production M/M: No est v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.4% prior
    - (MY) Malaysia Aug M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 3.1 v 3.0%e
    - (IT) Italy Aug PPI M/M: -0.7% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: -2.9% v -2.3% prior
    - (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Sept 25th: -6.7% v +13.9% prior
    - (PL) Poland Sept Preliminary CPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.8% v -0.7%e
    - (ZA) South Africa Aug Trade Balance (ZAR): -9.95B v -0.98Be
    - (CL) Chile Aug Total Copper Production: 443.3K v 455.1K tons prior
    - (US) Sept ADP Employment Change: +200K v +190Ke
    - (CA) Canada July GDP M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.7%e
    - (US) Sept ISM Milwaukee: 39.4 v 47.7 prior
    - (BR) Brazil Aug Primary Budget Balance (BRL): -7.3B v -11.0Be; Nominal Budget Balance (BRL): -57.0B v -64.6Be; Net Debt to GDP Ratio: 33.7% v 34.0%e
    - (US) Sept Chicago Purchasing Manager: 48.7 v 53.0e
    - (US) DOE Crude: +3.96M v +0.5Me; Gasoline: +3.25M v +0.5Me; Distillate: -0.27M v -1.0Me

    [I]Contributed by Trade The News[/I]
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