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    Faint or feint?! 

    by
    SMR
    Published on 09-29-2015 06:23 PM
    -faint_or_feint_1-png

    The week began well enough as I winged into JFK and weaved my way into the city a week ago Sunday. I have had a love affair with NYC ever since my father took me there to see the Christmas tree lighting when I was six. Dinner that night was at the Da Noi right across the street from Smith & Wollensky’s on 49th at the corner of 3rd Avenue. The next day it was all about meetings with portfolio managers (PMs). That night we tried to get into Avra for dinner, then the Sea Fire Grill, Smith & Wollensky’s, and Da Noi (again), but all the bars were full (who says the economy is slow). ...
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    Nearing normalization / shutdown shuffle – part 2 

    by
    SMR
    Published on 09-29-2015 06:18 PM
    Article: Indian stock market daily morning report (July 07, 2015, Tuesday)-nearing-normalization_2-png

    Fed Chair Janet Yellen downplayed concerns about the rest of the world and indicated that she was among the majority of Fed officials expected to raise short-term interest rates this year. Meanwhile, while John Boehner’s resignation as House Speaker may signal an agreement on the budget, Congress has moved further away from future compromise.

    In the revised dot plot, the graph of senior Fed officials’ forecasts of the appropriate federal funds target rate for the next few years, there is no indication of which dot corresponds to which official. It was speculated that Chair Yellen may have been one of the four officials who didn’t expect to raise short-term interest rates this year. ...
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    Go opposite to hysteria 

    by
    SMR
    Published on 09-22-2015 06:48 AM
    Article: UK stock market commentary (July 01, 2015): Greece on the road to Grexit-go_opposite_to_hysteria_1-png

    . . . Look for hysteria to see if you shouldn’t go the opposite way, but don’t go the opposite way until you have fully examined it. Also, remember that the world is always changing. Be aware of change. Buy change. You should be willing to buy or sell anything. So many people say, ‘I could never buy that kind of stock.’ ‘I could never buy utilities.’ ‘I could never play commodities.’ You should be flexible and alert to investing in anything.

    . . . Sometimes the chart for a market will show an incredible spike either up or down. You will see hysteria in the charts. When I see hysteria, I usually like to take a look to see if I shouldn’t be going the other way. . . . Just about every time you go against panic, you will be right if you can stick it out. . . . How do you pick the time to go against hysteria? I wait until the market starts moving in gaps.
    ...
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    Nearing normalization / shutdown shuffle 

    by
    SMR
    Published on 09-22-2015 06:44 AM
    Article: Indian stock market daily morning report (July 01, 2015, Wednesday)-nearing_normalization_1-png

    “Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term.”

    – from the September 17 FOMC policy statement

    The key line that was added to the Fed’s policy statement suggests a sharper focus on what’s happening in the rest of the world, but let’s be clear. The Fed is not reacting to overseas developments per se, but to what shifting global economic and financial conditions mean for the U.S. economy. In focusing on the Fed’s decision to delay policy normalization, investors have ignored the increased risk of a government shutdown. ...
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    This Is What Needs To Happen For Oil Prices To Stabilize 

    by
    SMR
    Published on 09-21-2015 06:37 AM

    On September 10th the EIA reported a production decline in the Lower 48—essentially shale production—of 208,000 BOPD. That is a staggeringly enormous number, approximately 10 percent of the estimated global over-supply. Additionally, it was a week-over-week number which makes it all the more impressive. Yet it received little attention through the week. Rather, Goldman Sachs was grabbing all the headlines with its $20 call on oil.

    This week, I was looking for a possible correction in that number with a zero decline or possibly even a gain (remember, the EIA numbers are estimates). But instead we got another decline of 35,000 BOPD. ...
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    Groundhog Day at the Fed 

    by
    SMR
    Published on 09-21-2015 06:35 AM

    Every dictator knows that a continuous state of emergency is the best means to justify tyrannical policies. The trick is to keep the fictitious emergency from breeding so much paranoia that routine activities come to a halt. Many have discovered that its best to make the threat external, intangible and ultimately, unverifiable. In Orwell's 1984 the preferred mantra was "We've always been at war with Eurasia," even though everyone knew it wasn't true. In its rate decision this week the Federal Reserve, adopted a similar approach and conjured up an external threat to maintain a policy that is becoming increasingly absurd. ...
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    The Shale Delusion: Why The Party's Over For U.S. Tight Oil 

    by
    SMR
    Published on 09-17-2015 09:55 AM
    Article: Russian stock market daily evening report (June 26, 2015, Friday)-why_the_party_s_over_for_us_tight_oil_1-jpg

    The party is over for tight oil.

    Despite brash statements by U.S. producers and misleading analysis by Raymond James, low oil prices are killing tight oil companies.

    Reports this week from IEA and EIA paint a bleak picture for oil prices as the world production surplus continues.

    EIA said that U.S. production will fall by 1 million barrels per day over the next year and that, "expected crude oil production declines from May 2015 through mid-2016 are largely attributable to unattractive economic returns." ...
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