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Price Targets
12 June 2009, BRIC, China The company hardly has any risks from selling of the small-portioned non-tradable shares within two years. Its energy-saving & emission reduction product, exhaust heat boiler is key recommendation by the government. TX Investment Consulting upgraded recommendation on PetroChina to "Overweight" 10 June 2009, BRIC, China As shown by latest statistics, rally of quantity and price in petrochemical industry is quite obvious. Being domestic bellwether in petroleum industry, the company takes its resource advantages in upstream market and benefits from recovery in downstream market; profit is expected to see evident upturn in Q2 and Q3 2009. TX Investment Consulting upgraded recommendation on Tianshui Huatian Technology to "Overweight" 9 June 2009, BRIC, China 2009-2010E EPS is predicted to be Rmb0.28 and Rmb0.41 respectively, representing dynamic P/E ratio at 23x and 16x based on closing price of Rmb6.37 on June 8, 2009, which is obviously advantageous compared with 2010E average dynamic P/E ratio of domestic IC close beta field at 27x. Keynote Capitals reduced price target on Logix Microsystems Ltd. to Rs.33 20 March 2009, BRIC, India Amid deteriorating consumer confidence and huge job losses, the US auto industry is going through one of its toughest recessionary phases. The industry recorded a de-growth of 38.9% in February 2009. This is the 4th consecutive month of over 30% decline in the number of new vehicles sold. Veles Capital downgraded price target on MTS from $12.44 to $10.60, recommendation "buy" unchanged 16 March 2009, BRIC, Russia March 11, 2009 MTS output 4Q 2008 and full-year 2008 US GAAP report, which includes company’s activity estimates under the conditions of crisis. We assume the following important moments of the report are to be outlined. First of all, the devaluation of Russian ruble and Ukrainian hryvnia (the company gains more than 90% of sales in those currencies) reflected on dollar estimates (both: income and expense) – 14% reduction of sales versus 3Q 2008 is pretty much explained precisely by the currency factor. Veles Capital downgraded price target on Severstal from $15.52 to $13.94, recommendation "buy" unchanged 16 March 2009, BRIC, Russia Severstal gained 1.208 bn USD of net loss by IAS in 4Q 2008. At 2008 year-end the net profit upped by 9.9% versus 2007 estimate to 2.034 bn USD. The sales increased by 1.44 times to 22.393 bn USD. The company did not provide forecasts of 2009, but lowered capital expenses target for 2009 from 3 bn USD to 1 bn USD, focusing at the repair-technical maintenance. Russian steel industry review by Veles Capital (March 2009) 10 March 2009, BRIC, Russia Ferrous metallurgy has actually sensed the breath of the global financial crisis. Metallurgy enterprises’ capacity loads dropped significantly, realization prices reduced, the companies began reducing salary funds, liability-related problems (especially currency ones) appeared. This is how the year started for the ferrous metallurgists. Steel market conjuncture of the current months is gradually recovering; there appears an uncertain demand of the products. But it should always be kept in mind that growing is far from dropping: for instance, 50% growth is a lot less than the previous 50% drop, if considering absolute expression. More to that, growth rates are not even close to the drop rates’ levels. We do not see any optimistic prospects of steel market conjuncture recovering. So the steel products’ prices will likely be climbing in proportion to inflation rates and, ceteris paribus, last summer’s highs will not be reached again soon. Veles Capital downgraded price target on Gazprom from $12.36 to $10, recommendation 10 March 2009, BRIC, Russia Considering the 9 months 2008 report we indicate 55% upping of gas monopoly’s sales to 2,573 bn RUR versus similar period last year. Net profit increased by 65.5% to 705.41 bn RUR, EBITDA climbed by 84.3% to 816.4 bn RUR. That provides totally secure all-time high financial estimates. But things are not that safe in gas monopoly as it might seem from the first sight. If comparing 3Q 2008 to 2Q 2008, the sales reduction can be indicated under the conditions of continuing operational expenses growth, which in its turn has decreased the company’s operational profit by 12.8%. That is while gas prices climbed in Europe. The main reason of sales reduction hides in gas demand dropping on behalf of the consumers, along with oil and gas condensate prices decrease and the seasonal factors. As for the operational expenses, they grew following the purchased oil and gas, and also the repair and exploitation expenses. Veles Capital downgraded price target on CTC Media from $32.6 to $10.84, recommendation "buy" unchanged 5 March 2009, BRIC, Russia Thursday CTC Media output US GAAP report for 4 Q 2008 and full year. The given report includes CTC Media activity estimates under the conditions of crisis in Russian economy. For now the main consequence of the crisis is dynamics of principal estimates of the company, exposed to seasonal factor, turned out to be not as considerable as it has been in previous years due to ruble devaluation. Nevertheless, CTC Media managed to fit in the forecasts made earlier. Keynote Capitals reduced recommendation on Logix Microsystems Ltd. from "Buy" to "Neutral" 13 January 2009, BRIC, India Keynote Capitals changed recommendation on Logix Microsystems Ltd. from "Buy" to "Neutral". Coverage on Logix Microsystems Ltd. (LML) was initiated on November 4, 2008 at Rs55.65, with a Buy rating and a target price of Rs110 (current price is Rs67.15). Keynote Capitals recommends to buy Logix Microsystems Ltd. 4 November 2008, BRIC, India Keynote Capitals initiated coverage of Logix Microsystems Ltd. Analysts set "Buy" recommendation and a 12-month target price of Rs110. Veles Capital upgraded price target on Rosneft from $14.31 to $15.11, recommendation "buy" unchanged 18 September 2008, BRIC, Russia Rosneft reported for 2Q 2008. Throughout the reported term company’s income has been reduced -43.7% and formed 4.312 bn USD. However, if we exclude the single-time income of Rosneft in 2Q 2007 off YUKOS case in 7,920 bn USD, then the natural net income of the reported term would soar +153%. Do note though – net income has appeared above the general forecast +4% and +10%, exceeding our expectations. Veles Capital set price target of $5.75 on NLMK, recommenation - "buy" 17 September 2008, BRIC, Russia Over 1H 2008 NMLK’s net income increased by 43.8% - to 1.531 bn USD, says company’s report. Company’s revenue added 63% and formed 5.884 bn USD, EBITDA increased by 47%, to 2.313 bn USD. The given financial results hit NMLK’s average forecasts, composed according to data received from analysts, whom work in different investment banks and companies. Company’s CapEx formed 822.4 mn USD. Cocking coal expenses per 1 ton of products reached 30.5% vs 25.8% last year. Veles Capital reduced price target on Lukoil from $138.44 to $129.63, recommendation "buy" unchanged 15 September 2008, BRIC, Russia On August 29th LUKOIL published its 2Q 2008 report under US GAAP. During 2Q 2008 net income of the company rose +64.1% versus similar value of 2007, form 2,517 bn USD to 4,130 bn USD. Versus 1Q 2008 (3.163 bn USD), net income had also demonstrated growth of +30.5%. The quarter value of net income had also appeared below market expectations at average of 10.3%, but met out forecast, based on value of 4.128 bn USD. Veles Capital reduced price target on Comstar-UTS from $13.48 to $12.69, recommendation "buy" unchanged 12 September 2008, BRIC, Russia Last week Comstar-UTS published its 1H 2008 financial results. Company’s report demonstrated negative trends of efficiency dynamics, due to higher expenses growth rates over income growth rates. This trend especially evident over 1H period. Among the reasons of higher growth rates of expenses are: decreased tariffs of MGTS (Comstar’s major subsidiary) and also Comstar’s aggressive activities in broadband market segment. Veles Capital upgraded recommendation on Sitronics from "sell" to "hold" 11 September 2008, BRIC, Russia Last Tuesday Sitronics published the results of its activity for 2Q and 1H 2008. It should be mentioned that Sitronics’ financial results become better and better. According 1H 2008 results, the company demonstrated positive dynamics of OIBDA and sales income. A growth of income was boosted by all main activities of the company, including “Telecom Solutions” and “IT Solutions”, which increased company’s revenue by 47.2% and 36.7% respectively. Moreover, Sitronics succeeds to keep expenses low, directed company’s efficiency into positive zone. The only goal, which Sitronics has not achieved yet – to gain net income with positive results. Veles Capital maintains "buy" recommendation on Uralsvyazinform 11 September 2008, BRIC, Russia Uralsvyazinform’s results over the year can be characterized as neutral. The company demonstrated average revenue growth rates (in comparison with other IRCs). The main growth drivers of revenue were – increased tariffs on local communications, intrazone connections due to CPP, cellular incomes (the number of company’s subscribers increased by 16% over the year) and also due to a development of new services. Veles Capital maintains "buy" recommendation on KAMAZ 9 September 2008, BRIC, Russia Late this August KAMAZ group published its financial results under IAS 2007 report. Group’s revenue increased by 45% vs 2006 results, EBITDA added 83.5% and formed 499 mn USD, company’s net income increased twice to 291 mn USD. KAMAZ’s efficiency also increased, coupled with high growth rates of main indicators. Thus, EBITDA margin formed 13.1% (10.4% over year 2006), a growth of net income margin formed 7.6% against 5.4% over year 2006. Veles Capital maintains "buy" recommendation on Dalsvyaz 9 September 2008, BRIC, Russia Dalsvyaz has become a leader among other IRCs on revenue growth rate (+46.2%). The boosting factor was – consolidated results of Sakhatelecom. However, this factor negatively influenced Dalsvyaz’s efficiency – OIBDA margin of Sakhatelecom (26.3% over year 2007) is lower than Dalsvyaz’s efficiency, leading to “degradation” of these results for the merged company. Keynote Capitals maintain "buy" recommendation on Pyramid Saimira Theatre 5 February 2008, BRIC, India Keynote Capitals maintain "buy" recommendation on Pyramid Saimira Theatre Ltd., the largest theatre chain company in India, with 13-month target price of Rs. 1074. |
