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Reliance Industries stock (NSE:RELIANCE; BOM:500325) price target is Rs2340 by Angel Broking
24 July 2009
Reliance Industries’ (RIL) 1QFY2010 numbers were in line with our expectation on the EBITDA front, while the same were lower than our expectation on Bottom-line front. RIL’s Top-line fell by 22.9% yoy to Rs32,055cr (Rs41,579cr) primarily on the back of 22.4% and 22.7% yoy fall in Petrochemical and Refining Revenues to Rs11,540cr and Rs25,180cr, respectively. Net Profit fell by 11.5% yoy to Rs3,636cr (Rs4,110cr). Crude processing during the quarter was 7.96mn tonnes (8.13mn tonnes), a decline of 2.1% yoy. RIL commenced gas production from the KG-D6 block during the quarter; average production from the block during the quarter stood at 19mmscmd.
Asian Paints stock (BOM:500820) price target is Rs1427 by Angel Broking
24 July 2009
For 1QFY2010, Asian Paints (APL) posted a steady Top-line growth of 17.5% yoy to Rs1,460cr (Rs1,243cr), on a consolidated basis, ahead of our estimates of a 13.3% growth to Rs1,408cr. The higher-than-expected Top-line growth was driven by an improving demand scenario (post recovery in 4QFY2009) in the decorative business, a better product-mix (higher emulsion sales), market share gains and a steady growth in its international operations (Middle East and South Asia regions). We estimate the Top-line growth to be largely volume driven, as the company undertook price cuts in 2HFY2009 to boost volumes.
Hindustan Zinc stock recommendation is NEUTRAL by Angel Broking
23 July 2009
Hindustan Zinc (HZL) posted a marginal 8% fall in Top-line to Rs1,512r (Rs1,644cr) for 1QFY2010, which was better than our estimates. Top-line de-grew primarily on account of the steep fall in LME–zinc and lead prices and lower realisations of bye-products. The LME zinc and lead prices averaged at US $1,476/tonne and US $1,506/tonne, lower by 30.2% and 35% yoy respectively, during the quarter. However, Rupee depreciation of 17% helped the company achieve better realisations and hence the fall in zinc and lead realisations was lower compared to the fall in average LME prices. Notably, zinc and lead realisations fell 13.8% and 19.9% respectively, compared to the 30.2% and 35% fall in zinc and lead prices, respectively. Sales volume of refined zinc, silver and sulphuric acid, which grew 9%, 46% and 13.6% respectively, during the quarter also restricted the fall in Revenues. Also, the company sold zinc concentrate of 36,191tonnes during the quarter, which aided Top-line growth.
JSW Steel recommendation (BOM:500228) is "Neutral" by Angel Broking
21 July 2009
For 1QFY2010, JSW Steel posted a marginal 6% yoy growth in its Standalone Top-line to Rs3,894cr (Rs3,671cr) mainly on account of the decline in average Steel realisations led by the fall in Steel prices during the quarter. Average Sales realisations fell by 34.4% yoy and 4.3% qoq to Rs29,499 during the quarter. However, strong volume growth of 62% yoy to 1.32mn tonnes (0.82mn tonnes) restricted the fall in Topline. Capacity expansions of 2.8mn tonnes helped the company deliver such a huge volume growth. Also, recovery in steel demand in India boosted the company’s sales volumes. Management has maintained its earlier guidance of 78% volume growth to 6.1mn tonnes in FY2010E. We have marginally increased our volume estimate for FY2010E from 5.14mn tonnes to 5.30mn tonnes, due to the better-than-expected Sales volume registered in 1QFY2010.
Raj Oil Mills IPO overview and recommendation by Angel Broking
20 July 2009
Raj Oil Mills (Raj Oil) is an established player in the Indian Edible Oil space and is known for its renowned brands such as Cocoraj (coconut oil), Guinea (groundnut oil and sunflower oil) and Raj. The company has till date focused mainly on retail sales and has been able to maintain high Margins and Return Ratios. Going ahead, we believe the company will have to increase its bulk and institutional sales to enhance its business operations. However, we believe that the company would find it difficult to maintain its high Margins and Return Ratios.
Rallis India (NSE:RALLIS; BOM:500355) price target is Rs796 by Angel Broking
20 July 2009
Rallis India (RAIL), a Tata Group company, is the second largest player in the domestic Pesticide market. RAIL had undertaken a restructuring exercise post FY2004, which resulted in RAIL clocking all-time high EBITDA Margins in FY2009. Going ahead, we expect Contract Manufacturing (CM) to drive the company's next level of growth particularly with its new plant coming on stream by June 2010. We estimate RAIL to register a CAGR of 14% and 24.3% in Net Sales and Profit over FY2009-11E, respectively. At Rs735, the stock is trading at 8.9x FY2011E Earnings and 5.4x FY2011E EV/EBITDA. Historically, RAIL has traded in the 3-11x one-year forward PE band, and at an average 8x over the last couple of years. Going ahead, on account of improving Return Ratios and higher Net Profit growth, we expect the stock to trade at higher valuations than its historical average.
Container Corporation of India (BOM:531344) price target is Rs892 by Angel Broking
20 July 2009
Container Corporation (Concor) reported 10.3% yoy and 7.9% qoq jump in Revenues to Rs907cr for 1QFY2010, which exceeded our estimate by 6.7%. The company’s EXIM Revenues grew 9% yoy to Rs724cr, well ahead of our expectation on the realisation and volume fronts. EXIM volumes fell a mere only 5.4%, which came as a positive surprise given that volumes at JNPT and other major ports declined by around 8% and historically Concor has underperformed both since the last three years. EXIM realisation/TEU grew by 15.2% yoy albeit on a lower base as increase in haulage charges were passed on from August 2008. However, qoq increase by 2.7% came as a surprise as industry sources and management had indicated dwell time returning to lower double teens from higher double teens. Domestic Revenues grew 15.5% yoy to Rs183cr in line with our expectation. The company’s Domestic Revenues continued to register robust performance on account of the domestic economy showing signs of revival as well as management’s concentrated focus on the segment.
Sasken Communication Technologies (BOM:532663) stock recommendation is "Neutral" by Angel Broking
20 July 2009
Sasken’s Top-line in 1QFY2010 crashed by as much as 17.1% qoq, touching Rs139.5cr. This pathetic performance was due to the extremely poor performances of both its Services and Products Businesses. The company’s Services Business fell by 12.1% qoq, which was owing to a significant 6.5% qoq decline in volumes, a 2% qoq decline in pricing and a 4% impact owing to the lower realised Rupee rate (Rs48.26 v/s Rs50.26 in 4QFY2009, down 4% qoq).
JK Tyre (NSE:JKTYRE) price target is Rs121 by Angel Broking
17 July 2009
JK Tyre & Industries’ (JK Tyre) Top-line grew 5.7% yoy to Rs897.7cr (Rs849.1cr) in 1QFY2010. Sales Volume for the quarter stood at 2.14mn units as against 1.97mn units in 3QFY2009, an increase of 8.4%. During the quarter, the company concentrated more on the Replacement market than the OEM Segment. Further, the company also achieved better product mix by increasing the share of premium products in total sales.
Crompton Greaves (BOM:500093) price target is Rs311, recommendation "Accumulate" by Angel Broking
17 July 2009
Crompton Greaves posted a 8.0% yoy growth in its consolidated Top-line to Rs2,198cr (Rs2,035cr) for 1QFY2010, which was slightly below our expectations. Though the Power Systems and Consumer Products Segments registered positive growth, the Industrial Systems Segment continues to be a major drag witnessing a de-growth in the quarterly revenues.
Bajaj Auto (NSE:BAJAJ-AUTO) price target is Rs1230 by Angel Broking
16 July 2009
For Q1FY2010, Bajaj Auto (BAL) clocked Net Sales of Rs2,339cr (Rs2,311cr), up 1.2% yoy, which was in line with our expectation. Total volumes for the quarter declined 11.7% yoy while average realisations per vehicle improved substantially by almost 10.7% yoy primarily due to the change in product mix and better performance by the 125cc-plus Segment. Growth in the 125cc-plus Segment was however, offset by poor performance by the 100cc Segment. BAL’s Bottom-line for the quarter at Rs293.5cr (Rs175.1cr) also came in substantially better than our estimate. Substantial jump in OPM, benefit of exchange rate on exports and lower Tax during the quarter aided Net Profit growth.
Sintex Industries (NSE:SINTEX) price target is Rs248 by Angel Broking
15 July 2009
Sintex Industries’ (Sintex) consolidated Net Sales de-grew by 9.1% to Rs662.4cr (Rs728.6cr) in 1QFY2010. The fall in revenue during the quarter was primarily on account of the decline in commodity prices since 3QFY2009, which, in turn, has resulted in a reduction in the prices of the output. To an extent, the reduction in the company’s Top-line was also on account of the overall economic slowdown, which resulted in a de-growth in the revenue of its foreign subsidiaries.
Russian wholesale generating companies (WGK) reviews and recommendations by Veles Capital
13 July 2009
Several moments might be outlined among the fundamental consequences of the crisis for WGC. First of all, that is a rapid drop of power energy consumption. Second, the loans’ price upping – it might become a problem for financing investment programs. Third, along with crisis development, active discussions on the matter of holding tariffs growth for the power energy companies, and also on the power energy market liberalization time constraints in order to reduce the load of the economy during the hard times.
KAMAZ price target is $1.32 by Veles Capital
13 July 2009
KAMAZ output the consolidated estimates for 2003 by IAS. According to the data of the report, the sales of the enterprise grew by 1.8% in dollar terms, and in ruble terms – lowered by 0.9% to the level of 96.3 bn RUR. EBITDA of KAMAZ totaled 8.6 bn RUR versus 13 bn RUR a year before. In 2008 KAMAZ gained net profit at the level of 1 bn RUR, which is 86.5% lower than the similar estimate of 2007.
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) price target is Rs720
10 July 2009
We value the company at 10X to the FY2010E EPS. We feel the FY2010E EPS to almost remain same there won’t be any significant improvement due to subdued crude oil price and government intervention in regulating the oil industry.
Share price of State Bank of India is likely to decrease
26 June 2009
The State Bank of India is the largest commercial bank in India. The balance sheet size is about Rs7 trillion. The bank along with its associate bank has a network of over 14000 branches across India and control over 18% of the banking business. The government owns 57% of the bank, with FIIs owning 20% (maximum permissible limit). Over the last couple of years SBI has been focusing on drawing significant synergies through an internal consolidation of its associate bank.
Rostelecom (RTS:RTKM) price target is 3.44 USD by Veles Capital
23 June 2009
Russia’s largest long-distance communication operator – Rostelecom – summed up the results of the previous year by IAS. The sales of the company totaled 66.6 bn RUR, net profit – 12.2 bn RUR. The year 2008 might be called the most successful one for the company within the past 3 years after the liberalization of the long-distance communication market.
Lukoil (RTS:LKOH) price target is $77.06 by Veles Capital
23 June 2009
Evaluating LUKOIL’s results of 1Q 2009 by US GAAP we should outline the company’s profitability recovery versus the losing 4Q 2008. That was thanks to the effort of the company’s management on optimizing business processes and saving on behalf of the principal production operations.
TVS Motor Company should outperform the peers in terms of growth
16 June 2009
The third largest two-wheeler manufacturer in India and one among the top ten in the world has posted 3 % growth in April 2009, registering total two wheeler sales of 113,119 units against 109,972 units in the corresponding period of the previous year.
TX Investment Consulting maintains "Overweight" rating on Suzhou Hailu Heavy Industry
12 June 2009
The company hardly has any risks from selling of the small-portioned non-tradable shares within two years. Its energy-saving & emission reduction product, exhaust heat boiler is key recommendation by the government.
TX Investment Consulting upgraded recommendation on PetroChina to "Overweight"
10 June 2009
As shown by latest statistics, rally of quantity and price in petrochemical industry is quite obvious. Being domestic bellwether in petroleum industry, the company takes its resource advantages in upstream market and benefits from recovery in downstream market; profit is expected to see evident upturn in Q2 and Q3 2009.
TX Investment Consulting upgraded recommendation on Tianshui Huatian Technology to "Overweight"
9 June 2009
2009-2010E EPS is predicted to be Rmb0.28 and Rmb0.41 respectively, representing dynamic P/E ratio at 23x and 16x based on closing price of Rmb6.37 on June 8, 2009, which is obviously advantageous compared with 2010E average dynamic P/E ratio of domestic IC close beta field at 27x.
Comstar-UTS (RTS:CMST) price target is $5.67 by Veles Capital
28 May 2009
Yesterday Comstar – United Telesystems, JSC output US GAAP report for 1Q 2009. Sales of the company totaled 334 mn USD by the results of the quarter, which is 20% lower than the estimate of 1Q 2008. OIBDA formed 126 mn USD (-26%). Net profit reduced by 77% to the level of 13 mn USD.
Godfrey Phillips India price target is Rs1605
20 May 2009
The company was originally established and developed by Godfrey Phillip ltd London, a publicly owned cigarette and tobacco company with extensive international operation. In 1968 Philip Morris International Finance Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Philip Morris U.S.A. acquired full ownership of Godfrey Phillip ltd., London, U.K., which was holding company of Godfrey Phillip India ltd.
Severstal (RTS:CHMF) price target is $8.44 by Veles Capital
20 May 2009
Severstal completed the first quarter with net loss by IAS in the amount of 644 mn USD versus 470 mn USD of profit within the similar period year before. According to the message of the company, net loss includes 381 mn USD of loss from currency exchange before tax payoff (in 4Q the net loss of the company totaled 1.2 bn USD). Sales of Severstal in 1Q 2009 totaled 2.796 bn USD (35% down). EBITDA formed a negative value – 158 mn USD versus 298 mn USD in 4Q and 1.036 bn USD in 1Q of the previous year.
CTC Media (NASDAQ:CTCM) price target is $11.06 by Veles Capital
13 May 2009
On Thursday, May 7, CTC Media output report for 1Q 2009 according to US GAAP. Sales totaled 105 mn USD, OIBDA – 39 mn USD, net profit – 23 mn USD.
Bank of Maharashtra price target is Rs40
5 May 2009
The Bank was registered on 16th September 1935 with the authorized capital of Rs10 lakh. It commenced its business on 8th February 1936. The Bank was later nationalized in 1969 thereby becoming Govt of India undertaking. At present it is having 1421 branches all over India. The bank is mostly concentrated in western India. Bank of Maharashtra attained the autonomy status in 1998. The bank wishes to cater to all types of needs of the entire family, in the whole country. Its dream is “One Family, One Bank, Bank of Maharashtra”.
Jyothy Laboratories price target is Rs84
21 April 2009
Jyothy Laboratories was established in the year 1983 by M P Ramachandran. From very humble start in 1983 having presence only in the state of Kerala it now has pan India presence. The company got started by corpus of just Rs40000 and today it has a turnover of in excess of Rs400 crore.
Britannia Industries price target is Rs1848
14 April 2009
Britannia had a very humble start from a nondescript house in Calcutta in 1892.Later in the year 1913 it got incorporated as public limited company. Britannia is ranked as one of the biggest brand of the country. It is the number one food brand. It has market share of about 40% in the bakery segment and is the leader.
Keynote Capitals reduced price target on Logix Microsystems Ltd. to Rs.33
20 March 2009
Amid deteriorating consumer confidence and huge job losses, the US auto industry is going through one of its toughest recessionary phases. The industry recorded a de-growth of 38.9% in February 2009. This is the 4th consecutive month of over 30% decline in the number of new vehicles sold.
Rolta India price target is Rs88
19 March 2009
The Company was incorporated on 27th, June, 1989 at Mumbai, and obtained the Certificate of Commencement of Business on 5th July. Rolta India Limited (ROLTA) has been promoted by Shri K.K. Singh a technocrat and businessman who has over two decades of experience in business. The Company is engaged in Distribution of CAD/CAM systems, manufacture of engineering workstations and net work servers, and export of software package.
Veles Capital downgraded price target on MTS from $12.44 to $10.60, recommendation
16 March 2009
March 11, 2009 MTS output 4Q 2008 and full-year 2008 US GAAP report, which includes company’s activity estimates under the conditions of crisis. We assume the following important moments of the report are to be outlined. First of all, the devaluation of Russian ruble and Ukrainian hryvnia (the company gains more than 90% of sales in those currencies) reflected on dollar estimates (both: income and expense) – 14% reduction of sales versus 3Q 2008 is pretty much explained precisely by the currency factor.
Veles Capital downgraded price target on Severstal from $15.52 to $13.94, recommendation "buy" unchanged
16 March 2009
Severstal gained 1.208 bn USD of net loss by IAS in 4Q 2008. At 2008 year-end the net profit upped by 9.9% versus 2007 estimate to 2.034 bn USD. The sales increased by 1.44 times to 22.393 bn USD. The company did not provide forecasts of 2009, but lowered capital expenses target for 2009 from 3 bn USD to 1 bn USD, focusing at the repair-technical maintenance.
Russian steel industry review by Veles Capital (March 2009)
10 March 2009
Ferrous metallurgy has actually sensed the breath of the global financial crisis. Metallurgy enterprises’ capacity loads dropped significantly, realization prices reduced, the companies began reducing salary funds, liability-related problems (especially currency ones) appeared. This is how the year started for the ferrous metallurgists.
Steel market conjuncture of the current months is gradually recovering; there appears an uncertain demand of the products. But it should always be kept in mind that growing is far from dropping: for instance, 50% growth is a lot less than the previous 50% drop, if considering absolute expression. More to that, growth rates are not even close to the drop rates’ levels. We do not see any optimistic prospects of steel market conjuncture recovering. So the steel products’ prices will likely be climbing in proportion to inflation rates and, ceteris paribus, last summer’s highs will not be reached again soon.
Veles Capital downgraded price target on Gazprom from $12.36 to $10, recommendation
10 March 2009
Considering the 9 months 2008 report we indicate 55% upping of gas monopoly’s sales to 2,573 bn RUR versus similar period last year. Net profit increased by 65.5% to 705.41 bn RUR, EBITDA climbed by 84.3% to 816.4 bn RUR. That provides totally secure all-time high financial estimates. But things are not that safe in gas monopoly as it might seem from the first sight. If comparing 3Q 2008 to 2Q 2008, the sales reduction can be indicated under the conditions of continuing operational expenses growth, which in its turn has decreased the company’s operational profit by 12.8%. That is while gas prices climbed in Europe. The main reason of sales reduction hides in gas demand dropping on behalf of the consumers, along with oil and gas condensate prices decrease and the seasonal factors. As for the operational expenses, they grew following the purchased oil and gas, and also the repair and exploitation expenses.
Veles Capital downgraded price target on CTC Media from $32.6 to $10.84, recommendation "buy" unchanged
5 March 2009
Thursday CTC Media output US GAAP report for 4 Q 2008 and full year. The given report includes CTC Media activity estimates under the conditions of crisis in Russian economy. For now the main consequence of the crisis is dynamics of principal estimates of the company, exposed to seasonal factor, turned out to be not as considerable as it has been in previous years due to ruble devaluation. Nevertheless, CTC Media managed to fit in the forecasts made earlier.
Nagarjuna Fertilizers & Chemicals price target is Rs30
2 March 2009
Nagarjuna Fertilizer and Chemical Ltd. (NFCL) commenced operation in 1985. The company is flagship Company of Nagarjuna group. Today the NFCL has total asset base of Rs21 billion.
Keynote Capitals reduced recommendation on Logix Microsystems Ltd. from "Buy" to "Neutral"
13 January 2009
Keynote Capitals changed recommendation on Logix Microsystems Ltd. from "Buy" to "Neutral". Coverage on Logix Microsystems Ltd. (LML) was initiated on November 4, 2008 at Rs55.65, with a Buy rating and a target price of Rs110 (current price is Rs67.15).
Keynote Capitals recommends to buy Logix Microsystems Ltd.
4 November 2008
Keynote Capitals initiated coverage of Logix Microsystems Ltd. Analysts set "Buy" recommendation and a 12-month target price of Rs110.
Veles Capital upgraded price target on Rosneft from $14.31 to $15.11, recommendation
18 September 2008
Rosneft reported for 2Q 2008. Throughout the reported term company’s income has been reduced -43.7% and formed 4.312 bn USD. However, if we exclude the single-time income of Rosneft in 2Q 2007 off YUKOS case in 7,920 bn USD, then the natural net income of the reported term would soar +153%. Do note though – net income has appeared above the general forecast +4% and +10%, exceeding our expectations.
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