Russian stock market daily evening report (November 20, 2009, Friday)
The activity of the players lowered on the expectations of the week-end. During the trading session the sellers prevailed, however, full-scale correction did not happen. The preferred shares of Sberbank, and also Tatneft and Polyus Gold managed to stay within the green zone. The last mentioned shares likely were reacting to the decision by the principal holders not to conduct SPO.
World stock markets daily report (November 20, 2009)
U.S. stocks extended a global drop as concern grew that the rally has outpaced the prospects for economic growth. The yen and the dollar strengthened, oil tumbled and yields on Treasury three-month bills turned negative for the first time since financial markets froze last year. There was some bearish chat from 2 of the markets heavy hitters. Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said the “systemic risk” of new asset bubbles is rising as the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates at record lows while queen of the banking analysts, Meredith Whitney, said Thursday that bank stocks are “grossly overvalued.” So after largely ignoring a plethora of disappointing data earlier in the week, markets look decidedly weaker overnight (even though the data was perhaps ironically somewhat more encouraging). European bourses were weaker from the open and lost further ground after US markets opened. Some negative broker commentary from Bank of America / Merrill Lynch on the tech sector didn’t help matters. But I suspect that the accumulation of disappointing construction sector reports of late, culminating in yesterday’s US housing starts and permits data, means that investors are reluctant to drive markets to new highs this side of Christmas. According to the MBA, 14.41% of mortgages are now at least one payment overdue or already in the foreclosure process. 2 Year Treasury Bond yields have hit 2009 lows today, as sure sign that traders think the odds on that overhyped V-shaped recovery becoming a W have shortened considerably.
US stock market opening report (November 20, 2009, Friday)
Fed’s Plosser said that it is not quite time for the Fed to raise interest rates, adding that will have a much better sense of US economy’s path going into next year and middle of 2010. Plosser also said that he has grown more confident in economy’s recovery and is less concerned about a double-dip recession risk. Also, Fed’s Fisher said that it is some time before unemployment falls below 10% and Q3 GDP may be revised lower. Fisher also said that he doesn’t worry about the price of Gold. In other news, short-term US interest rates turned negative on Thursday as banks stockpiled government securities in order to “window dress” their balance sheets for the year-end, highlighting continuing distortions in the financial system more than a year after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. The scramble has been exacerbated by the fact that all top US banks, many sitting on big trading profits, will this year close their books at the end of December. In past years, top investment banks have reported annual results in November. Elsewhere, Federal Reserve officials are stepping up scrutiny of the biggest US banks to ensure the lenders can withstand a reversal of soaring global-asset prices, according to people with knowledge of the matter. (BBG) Also, foreign central bank US debt holdings rise USD 17.174bln to USD 2.933trl in November 18 week, according to Fed.
World stock markets news summary (US, UK, Europe, Asia) (November 20, 2009)
UK new housing registrations rose to the highest level since July 2008 last month in a sign “the worst may be over” for construction companies, the National House Building Council said. Fed’s Plosser said that it is not quite time for the Fed to raise interest rates, adding that will have a much better sense of US economy’s path going into next year and middle of 2010. Plosser also said that he has grown more confident in economy’s recovery and is less concerned about a double-dip recession risk. ECB’s Bini Smaghi says data suggest economy gained pace in Q4, but pace of recovery likely to be gradual and uneven. Japan’s government said for the first time since 2006 that the economy was back in deflation, warning of the risk that price falls may pressure a fragile economy barely out of its worst recession in decades. The announcement came as the Bank of Japan kept interest rates at 0.1% and upgraded its economic assessment.
Indian stock market daily closing report (November 20, 2009)
The key benchmark indices reversed early losses to rise sharply in afternoon trades post government comments on P-notes and source based news on banks' consolidation. The BSE Sensex closed at 17,021 up 236 points and the Nifty rose 1.27% or 63 points to settle at 5052 after seeing recovery of 120 points from days low. Buying was seen across all the sectors; banking, oil & gas, banking, metal, technology and cement were the major gainers. The market breadth was marginally positive. The Nov nifty future ended with 24 points premium at 5,076. For the week Nifty gained 1%.
Indian stock market daily morning report (November 20, 2009, Friday)
Uncertainties about the global economic recovery and risk averseness of the investors due to a stronger dollar impacted the markets yesterday. High beta real estate, banks and metal stocks turned weak. Market breadth was weak as investors sold large cap stocks. FIIs sold equities worth Rs4.6bn, while domestic institutions bought equities of Rs1.2bn. Asian markets have moved lowered today on fears that the global economy would take some more time to recover. Exporter and technology stocks dragged the Japanese markets down while Chinese banks pulled the Hang Seng down. We expect a weak opening for the Indian markets this morning, as FIIs seem to be pulling their money out of the global markets, pending further visibility on the economic recovery. While FIIs have provided support to the markets over the last few days, if the trend were to reverse, we may see other investors too turning cautious.
US stock market daily report. (November 19, 2009, Thursday)
Airline stocks were falling today due to current delays caused by malfunctions from the FAA system that collects flight plans. Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport was the first of several airports to report the problem, which occurred this morning at around 5:15 and 5:30 AM. The glitch is affecting mostly flight plans but is also affecting ground stops and ground delays, airplane dispatchers are sending plans to controllers who are programming them into computers manually. Officials aren't sure how long it is going to take to fix the problem, this is the second time in 15 months that the FAA has had this problem. Other airports that are being affected by the malfunction are in Fort Lauderdale Florida, New York metropolitan area airports, and Salt Lake City, they all reported only minor delays. Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport is the world's busiest airport and is also hub to Delta and AirTran airlines, they have been the most affected by the problem. As of 8:00 AM EST, AirTran had canceled 22 flights and has handfuls of delays, informed passengers that there is no danger to flights in the air, and that flights are still staking off. Delta was unable to comment on the number of flight cancellations or delays but said all passengers will be able to re-schedule. AirTran Airways spokesman Christopher white said, " most of the canceled flights were in Atlanta, AirTran's hub of operations, and others are spread throughout the country. He also said, "the problem will have a pretty major impact on operations and the cancellations will have a ripple effect." Shares of the company fell $0.13 after the news was released, along with Delta whose shares fell $0.15. Hartsfield-Jackson Airport said in a statement, "Officials are monitoring the situation regarding the FAA's automated flight-plan system. The airport is working to minimize the impact on customers by bringing in additional staff and ensuring that all facilities are operational and fully maintained." They also asked passengers to call airlines before going to the airport to avoid further complications. Stocks fell for the second day in a row today, after a batch of mixed economic data, the Labor Department reported that the number of initial jobless claims was unchanged in the week ended November 14 from 505,000 the prior week. Leading economic indicators showed an increase of 0.3% in October, just below analysts' forecast of 0.4%, the index rose 1% in September. Bond prices rose, he yield on the benchmark 10-year note fell to 3.34 from 3.35 Wednesday.
Russian stock market daily evening report (November 19, 2009, Thursday)
The trades were in the negative estimates zone under the affect of the negative external background. The main chips slipped by 2% average. The activity is still focused in Sberbank and Gazprom. Interest appeared in the shares of Aeroflot – the shares of the company were climbing against the background of good operating results.
World stock markets daily report (November 19, 2009)
Wednesday will be remembered more for incompetent visually impaired Swedish officials and Messieur “Thieving” Henry than any price action on the markets. For the record, U.S. Stocks fell as profit forecasts dragged Tech shares lower. Equities slipped, pulling the S&P 500 down from a 13-month high, as technology companies slid after profit forecasts at Autodesk and Salesforce.com trailed some analyst estimates. Autodesk, the biggest maker of engineering-design software, slid 10% after saying job losses in core markets are making the company’s recovery “challenging.” Salesforce.com, the largest seller of Web-based customer-management software, tumbled 3.1%. The market’s decline was limited as Bank of America rallied after John Paulson’s hedge fund said the shares may almost double, while takeover speculation lifted Colgate-Palmolive and E*Trade Financial. The S&P 500 fell 0.1 percent to 1,109.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 11.11 points, or 0.1 percent, to 10,426.31. About three stocks dropped for every two that rose on the NYSE. The dollar weakened and gold climbed to a record $1,153.40 an ounce. Overnight, the hapless Nikkei won the cellar-dweller award falling 1.3% to a 4 month low on Japan share-sale plans. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. sank 3.1% and Nomura Real Estate Residential slumped 7.8% after failing to sell stock. Today the tech stocks are leading us down on a Bank of America downgrade (see below) of semiconductor and chips stocks. Feeling to the heat are Micron, National Semiconductor, Intel, Mircochip Technology, San Disk and President Obama’s warning that the US’s spiralling budget deficit and skyrocketing national debt could plunge the country BACK into recession.
US stock market opening report (November 19, 2009, Thursday)
Fed’s Plosser said that central banks should not respond to wild swings in food and energy prices with monetary policy unless expectations of inflation become unhinged. Plosser further said that US has turned a corner on the economy and is in a recovery, adding that as economy strengthens, will have to look very hard at reversing course on rates. Plosser said that he doesn’t see any reason to be concerned about prices relevant to asset bubbles. (RTRS) Also, Fed’s Fisher said that falling USD is not necessarily inflationary. In other news, For the first time in the credit crisis, the government may have run into a problem that is too tough to bail out: commercial real estate. Smaller banks weren’t stress-tested in the same way as larger banks, and thus are less likely to have raised enough equity to deal with commercial real estate. Analyst Meredith Whitney said today that banks are grossly overvalued and that the Fed is unlikely to extend the purchase of mortgage securities. Whitney also noted that credit card losses are continuing on pace.
World stock markets news summary (US, UK, Europe, Asia) (November 19, 2009)
Credit rating agency Moody’s Investors Service said on Wednesday it placed under review for possible downgrade some USD 450bln of banks’ hybrid and subordinated debt, to account differently for the impact of government support for financial institutions and investors. Fed’s Plosser said that central banks should not respond to wild swings in food and energy prices with monetary policy unless expectations of inflation become unhinged. Plosser further said that US has turned a corner on the economy and is in a recovery, adding that as economy strengthens, will have to look very hard at reversing course on rates. Japan’s government, facing sliding tax revenues, may issue JPY 52trl in new bonds in the current fiscal year to March 2010, up 18% from its current estimate.
Russian stock market daily morning report (November 19, 2009, Thursday)
Trading session began on Wednesday at the Russian share market with quotes growth on the principal range of shares. The main reason for climbing was the recovery at the oil market – during the whole day the oil quotes were around 79 USD. The principal activity was still focused on the quality first echelon. We might only point out KAMAZ among the less liquid shares. The demand for the given note was active against the background of statement by Putin, made the day before that, on the efficiency of the adopted anti-crisis program, and also on the state bail for the enterprise. As a result the shares of KAMAZ were bought yesterday via 2.6 USD, which was 15.5% higher than the previous purchases. In the afternoon the morning growth was graded against the background of negative stats on the newly-built houses market in the U.S., which slipped by 10.6% unexpectedly versus the target growth by 1.7%. The shares of Sberbank were sensitive to that information – they were sold little by little by the end of the trading session, which leaded to the RTS index turn around and leave the daytime maximums.
Indian stock market daily morning report (November 19, 2009, Thursday)
The Sensex snapped the 3-day rally and closed just below the crucial 17,000 mark yesterday. Overall, mood was lacklustre due to absence of domestic triggers. The Sensex saw small rallies which however could not sustain on profit taking by traders in banks, oil and gas and capital goods stocks. However, media reports of stake sale in JSW Steel to Nippon Steel fueled a rally in metal stocks. IT stocks were strong as well. Market breadth was moderately strong at 1.4x. Small cap stocks witnessed buying momentum, while breadth for large and mid cap stocks was tight. FIIs remained in the buy mode and bought equities worth Rs4.1bn, while domestic institutions sold equities of Rs2.6bn. Asian markets are trading lower today, amid continuing bearish sentiments. Japanese markets are down as the Japan's largest bank, Mitsubishi UFJ said it would raise $11bn to meet capital requirements. The Hang Seng too is down, ahead of the key economic numbers to be declared by the US. We expect a weak opening for the Indian markets this morning as signals from global markets are not encouraging. However, consistency in FII buying is a positive and may cap any major downside.
Indian stock market and companies daily report (November 19, 2009, Thursday)
Intraday volatility was high, and the market recovered soon after an initial slide. The Sensex and the Nifty pared their gains after hitting one-month highs in mid-morning trade, and once again slipped into the red later. The markets cut their losses in early afternoon trade, after the FM announced that the current higher capital inflows are not a matter of concern. Volatility ruled the roost in late trade as the benchmark indices edged lower, as investors took home cash after the recent, sharp spurt in share prices. Metal stocks rose, but capital goods and banking stocks fell. The Sensex and Nifty were down by 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively. The BSE Mid-Cap and Small-Cap Indices were up by 0.3% and 0.8%, respectively. Among the front liners, Tata Motors, Tata Steel, ITC, Infosys and Jaiprakash Associates gained between 2-4%, while Reliance Infrastructure, L&T, ICICI Bank, RIL, Grasim Industries lost between 1-3%. In the Midcap segment, Asian Star, Essar Ship Ports, BOC India, Pantaloon Retail and Maharashtra Seamless gained between 5-17%, while Mphasis, Exide Industries, BF Utilities, REI Six Ten Retail and KGN Industries lost between 3-5%.
US stock market closing report. (November 18, 2009, Wednesday)
Commerce Department released this month's housing starts data today, stocks fell when the report was released. Housing starts plummeted 10.6% in October to a seasonally adjusted rate of 529,000, it was the biggest decline since January, economists had expected 590,000 starts last month, Year over year, starts are down 30.7%. New starts for single-family homes fell 6.8% last month to an annual rate of 476,000 units, the lowest since May. New building permits fell 4 percent to 552,000 units in October, analysts' predicted 580,000 units, investors use new building permits data as an indicator of future home construction. Housing data released today was surprising to analysts, over the past couple of months people started thinking the housing market was going to turn around after years of crumbling. Recent recovery in the housing market was fueled by the $8,000 tax credit for first-time buyers, the government recently extended the program hoping to a further increase in sales. In other news, the Labor Department reported consumer prices rose 0.3% in October, a little higher than the 0.2% economists forecasted. Even though stocks were falling it didn't stop gold from continuing it's rise, the commodity hit yet another high this morning of $1,149.60 after the dollar fell against other currencies. Crude Oil prices were also on the rise, it rose $0.44 to $79.58 a barrel in the trading session. Bond prices fell, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to 3.36 percent from 3.32 Tuesday.
Russian stock market daily evening report (November 18, 2009, Wednesday)
The trades began with price growth on the main range of shares against the background of the oil price increase. As usually the shares of Sberbank and Gazprom were bought. Among the shares of the 2nd echelon we might outline active demand of KAMAZ against the background of yesterday statements by Putin relating the efficiency of anti-crisis measures and state bail for the enterprise. The close of the session was more or less positive on behalf of the weak data from the newly built houses market of the U.S.
World stock markets daily report (November 18, 2009)
Equities gained for a third day yesterday as a rebound in metal prices boosted commodity producers, overshadowing a smaller-than-forecast increase in industrial production. The Dollar Index, which tracks the US Dollar against six US trading partners, rose for the first time in three days and Treasury 30-year Bonds climbed for a fourth. Wal-Mart and Exxon Mobil gained after Warren Buffett disclosed buying their shares. Sprint Nextel rallied after saying it paid down $1 billion in debt. Caterpillar and ITT declined as the Federal Reserve said industrial output was restrained in October by less auto manufacturing and demand for business equipment. In the end, the S&P 500 added 0.1% to 1,110.32, its highest close since October 2, 2008. US equity markets seem to have been supported by a number of comments by Fed policymakers (notably Kohn and Yellen) – in particular the assertion that US asset markets do not appear to be unfairly valued. We seem to be at the beginning of a new campaign as the Fed seeks to justify the maintenance of its very easy policy stance. The initial phase of that campaign was to assure the market that the Fed has the tools available to reverse the policy stance in a timely fashion so as to prevent an undesirable outbreak of generalized inflation. Now the Fed seems to be defending itself against the charge that the liquidity that it is providing is simply stoking another asset price bubble that will ultimately prove even more destabilising.
US stock market daily report. (November 18, 2009, Wednesday)
Obama said that too much debt could hurt confidence and may lead to double dip recession in the US economy, adding that he sees US GDP growth in Q4 but job growth lagging. Obama also said that China forex reforms are to help on trade imbalances and US is willing to boost high-tech exports to China. Many banks are facing possible multi-notch downgrades to their hybrid bonds following the change in the methodology used by Moody’s Investors Services. The ratings agency yesterday confirmed a new system would take account of a wider range of factors and said it would announce within two days which hybrids would be put on review for downgrade.
Indian stock market daily closing report (November 18, 2009)
The benchmark index ended 51 points lower at 16,998 after trading in a narrow range of 16,958 and 17,098. On the NSE, Nifty ended almost flat at 5,055 down 7 points. The broader indices outperformed the benchmark indices - the BSE Midcap Index was up 0.3% and the Smallcap was up 0.8%. The breadth in the broader markets was however positive but total volumes were lower compared to yesterday at 88,476 cr. Metal and IT stocks posted some gains today.
World stock markets news summary (US, UK, Europe, Asia) (November 18, 2009)
Fears that the Bank of England may have to reverse its policy of quantitative easing – injecting cash directly into the economy – and raise rates sooner than expected were heightened yesterday with the publication of the latest inflation figures. CPI in October came in 1.5% Y/Y vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. 1.1%). Treasury’s Geithner says US economy is growing again and financial markets much more stable, however the US must avoid removing support ‘prematurely.’ US NAHB Housing Market Index (Nov) M/M 17 vs. Exp. 19 (Prev. 18, Rev. 17). Trichet says he expects inflation to turn positive in the coming months and the current monetary policy stance is appropriate. Trichet added that he appreciates the US comments on a strong USD and says Bernanke’s comments were very important.
Russian stock market daily morning report (November 18, 2009, Wednesday)
The share market did not manage to stay at the levels that have been reached the day before and began correcting from the open of the session against the background of the reducing futures for the American indices. The most part of the day the play was with no idea. The structure of deals remained the same: the principal activity was indicated in the s shares of Sberbank and Gazprom. On behalf of the commodity market no support came either: the oil was slipping versus high values of the day before against dollar strengthening. In the afternoon weak stats on the industrial production of RF and negative data on the producers prices and volumes of industrial production came out in the U.S., which served as another reason for sale.
Indian stock market and companies daily report (November 18, 2009, Wednesday)
The benchmark indices opened on a weak note, only to slip into the red in early afternoon session. Stocks in the Realty, Banking and Energy spaces witnessed selling, whereas those from the IT and Telecom spaces experienced some initial gains. The afternoon session saw the markets languishing in the red. However, after trading in the negative territory for a large part of the day, the Indian markets staged a sharp recovery during the closing hours of trade and managed to close marginally in the positive. These gains were led by stocks from the IT sector. The Sensex and the Nifty closed with gains of 0.1% each. The BSE Mid-Cap Index lost 0.1%, whereas the BSE Small-Cap Index gained 0.2%. Among the front liners, TCS, Hero Honda, Infosys, Reliance Infra and HDFC Bank gained between 2-4%, while ONGC, ACC, DLF, Bharti Airtel and RCOM lost between 2-3%. In the Midcap segment, S Kumars Nation, Shaw Wallace, Redington, HT Media and PVP Ventures Ltd gained between 3-7%, while AllCargo Global, Panacea Biotech, IVRCL Infra, Himadri Chemicals and Anant Raj Industries lost between 9-15%.
Indian stock market daily morning report (November 18, 2009, Wednesday)
Indian markets were bearish for almost the entire day yesterday, following the weakness across the global markets and profit taking. However, a strong upmove towards the end of the trading session helped the Sensex with a moderate upside. Real estate and oil and gas stocks declined, while IT and consumer durables stocks witnessed upside. Trading volumes on both exchanges however remained lacklustre. Market breadth was tight at 1x. FIIs bought equities worth Rs4.6bn, while domestic institutions sold equities of Rs2.4bn. Asian markets are mixed today. While the Nikkei is down on account of dip in banks and real estate stocks, the Hang Seng is up due to rally fueled by China stocks and upbeat US markets. A fall in the yen, however helped the Nikkei restrict losses. We expect a flat opening for the Indian markets today due to lack of clear trend in the Asian markets. However, investors are likely to remain cautious; the markets may be volatile due to lack of domestic / global triggers.
US stock market daily report. (November 17, 2009, Tuesday)
Wall Street couldn't keep up the rallies from yesterday even after upbeat government reports, investors are watching for earnings released by major retailers to find out the question on everyone's minds... how much consumers are spending. It is the topic on every investors mind, when we know how much consumers are spending it gives a better understanding of where the economic recovery is at, that is why investors are turning to those reports. Government reports today showed that the Producer Price Index, a key measure of inflation for manufacturers, crept up 0.3% in October, it was expected to have risen 0.5% for the month. Core PPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, fell 0.6%, analysts expected core to have risen 0.1% in October. In Company news, retailers Saks Inc. and Target Corp. all reported better-than-expected third-quarter earnings. Home Depot reported a fall in third-quarter earnings to $0.41 per share from $0.45 a year-ago, analysts expected an increase of $0.36 per share. High-end retailer Saks Inc. reported a quarterly profit of $0.01 per share, analysts were surprised by the results, they were expecting the company to report a loss. Discount retail giant Target reported an 18% increase in third-quarter profit, the company saw a large increase in their credit card portfolio. Even though companies are seeing better than expected earnings they are still remaining cautious about the upcoming holiday season and are preparing for the worst. In Trading news, the dollar was on the rise after days of losses, it helped push commodities like oil and gold higher. Stocks rose at the end of the trading day but only saw slight gains.Gold which was at record highs of $1,139.20 yesterday worked it's way lower today, bond prices rose, the yield on the benchmark 10- year Treasury note fell to 3.32 from 3.33 Monday.
Russian stock market daily evening report (November 17, 2009, Tuesday)
The market slipped after growth the day before. Many preferred to fixate profit, especially on Sberbank and Gazprom. Sellers prevailed in Rosneft and Norilsk Nickel. LUKOIL and Surgutneftegas managed to keep their positions in the positive values. In the afternoon the players were affected by the negative stats from the U.S. and also weak data on the industrial production in RF. Oil did not provide any support either against the background of dollar that was getting stronger during the day.
World stock markets daily report (November 17, 2009)
Bernanke’s speech was an invitation for risk-takers to stay in the driving seat. Extracts from the Q&A session: “It is inherently extraordinarily difficult to know whether an asset’s price is in line with its fundamental value. It’s not obvious to me in any case that there’s any large misalignment currently in the US financial system.” Such a relaxed view contrasts with concerns abroad (e.g. at the APEC meeting last weekend) that the Fed’s super-accommodative policy is causing new imbalances (the dollar Carry Trade, a risk asset bubble in EM space, etc). So what can be done to prevent new bubbles? “The best approach here if at all possible is to use supervisory and regulatory methods to restrain undue risk-taking and to make sure the system is resilient in case an asset-price bubble bursts in the future.” This is all very well in principle, yet may not be relevant in the present case. Indeed, regulators are afraid of tightening the screw too early, as this could kill the economic recovery. Risk-takers can rest easy and safe for now. There was really very little to upset them in Bernanke’s speech. Party poopers would notice that the extreme policy accommodation (“exceptionally low rates over an extended period”) was said to be conditional on a lack of “significant changes in economic conditions or outlook.”
US stock market opening report (November 17, 2009, Tuesday)
Fed’s Yellen said that recession in the US is probably over and we cannot have accommodative policy for too long, adding that the US economy is to grow into next year but recovery will be slow and there will be weak employment growth. Yellen further said that US inflation will be subdued over next number of years and US has enough tools to tighten economy when time comes. Yellen said that US stock market is not overvalued. Fed’s Kohn said that the Fed’s low interest rate policy was meant to encourage investors to move into riskier assets and there are no signs currently that an asset bubble is building in the US. (RTRS) In other news, US regional banks face greater exposure to losses due to commercial real estate loans, which may increase their chance of future ratings downgrades, Fitch Ratings said. In other news, mortgage delinquencies peak again in the third quarter, but pace of growth slows for third straight period. The good news is that the pace at which people fell behind on their mortgages slowed during the summer for the third quarter in a row. The bad news is the overall delinquency rate hit another record. For the three months ended Sept. 30, 6.25 percent of U.S. mortgage loans were 60 or more days past due, according to credit reporting agency TransUnion. That’s up 58 percent, from 3.96 percent, a year ago.
Indian stock market daily closing report (November 17, 2009)
The markets ended flat after a volatile and choppy session. Buying was seen in IT and banking stocks while oil & gas and realty stocks witnessed selling pressure. The Sensex gained 18 points to end at 17,050 after trading in a narrow zone of 17,080 and 16,882. On the NSE, Nifty ended at 5,062 up 4 points after trading in the range of 5,072 – 5,010. The market breadth was neutral and the total traded volumes remained lower.
World stock markets news summary (US, UK, Europe, Asia) (November 17, 2009)
BOE’s Sentance says making the next major QE decision in the February inflation report. (BBG/RTRS/Independent) Sentance says Q3 GDP estimate was a shock and may be unreliable, says the UK economy is moving into recovery phase and short-term economic news is very positive and expects UK unemployment may level off at about 2.5mln. Says BOE is to asses if UK doesn’t need more stimulus and BOE forecasts show danger of inflation in 2 years. Sentance says competitive level of GBP likely to provide additional support to recovery and full impact of rate cuts only just feeding through, impact of QE could take longer. Fed Chairman Bernanke says ’significant economic challenges remain’ and that Fed policy will help ensure ‘USD is strong’ (BBG/RTRS) Bernanke repeats conditions likely to warrant exceptionally low Interest Rates for an extended period and that inflation likely to remain subdued for some time, but inflation outlook faces ‘number of crosscurrents’. Says tight bank lending and weak job market important headwinds, with the latter likely to keep households cautious about spending. Says concerned that unemployment rate might be quite high by the end of next year and also adds that commercial real estate loan quality deteriorated.
Russian stock market daily morning report (November 17, 2009, Tuesday)
The beginning of the week was rather positive. The results of ATES summit made the investors happy – the heads of states made the decision on further supporting the economy. Against that background dollar lost its positions, which positively reflected of the oil price. At the metals market the positive trend was indicated also. As a result the RTS index renewed the annual maximums, having exceeded the level of late October. First of all the investors were interested in the shares of the bank and oil and gas sectors. By the results of the day Sberbank and VTB added about 5%, the shares of the oil sector added 4% average. The positive stats from the other side of the Atlantic supported demand for the domestic shares. At London exchange the trades on NMTP got more active against the background of the company being included into the privatizing list for 2010. Also the shares of Evraz were of demand abroad against the background of positive financial stats for 9 months.
Indian stock market and companies daily report (November 17, 2009, Tuesday)
The key benchmark indices pared their gains in late trade, as index heavyweights Reliance Industries (RIL) and Larsen and Toubro (L&T) came off the day's highs. Weakness in the US dollar aided the rally on the domestic bourses. Banking, realty, metal and auto stocks rose, but IT stocks fell. The market breadth was strong. The Sensex and the Nifty closed with gains of 1% each. The BSE Mid-Cap and Small-Cap indices also gained 1% each. Among the front liners, Maruti, DLF, Hero Honda, Sterlite and Rcom gained between 3%-5.5%, while TCS, Infosys, NTPC and HDFC Bank lost between 0.0%-0.6%. In the Midcap segment, BF Utilities, Everest Kanto, Amtek Auto, HT Media and Pantaloon Retail gained between 6.9%-20%, while Kansai Nerolac, Hind Oil Exploration, Aventis Pharma, National Fertilizer and Patni Computers lost between 3%-4.5%.
Indian stock market daily morning report (November 17, 2009, Tuesday)
Indian markets were upbeat throughout yesterday’s trading session on optimism expressed by India's finance minister on the economy and strong global cues. Benchmark BSE Sensex remained above the 17,000 level almost throughout the trading session. The rally was led by real estate, auto, metal and oil and gas stocks, while IT stocks underperformed. However, trading volumes dipped for the second consecutive day. In the backdrop of poor trading volumes, as such the rally loses its sheen. Market breadth was positive 1.7x led by large cap stocks. FIIs bought equities worth Rs5.4bn and domestic institutions sold equities of Rs2.9bn. Asian markets have turned weak this morning on profit taking. Japanese markets are trading lower, dragged down by exporter stocks due to a strong yen. Indian markets are set to open weak this morning, tracking the Asian markets. We expect investors to take profits following the rally over the last few days, which may add to the weakness. However, markets may be supported by FII buying, which has been the trend over the last few days.
Russian stock market daily evening report (November 16, 2009, Monday)
Players were in extremely positive mood overreacting to the results of the ATES summit, and also to the dollar weakening oil price growth that followed. The RTS index renewed the annual maximums and exceeded the October levels. Buyers showed most interest in the shares of Sberbank, VTB, Gazprom and principal oil chips.
World stock markets daily report (November 16, 2009)
Having briefly scanned the dataflow Friday before checking out the price action, your writer had thought he may be confronted with somewhat softer markets. Wrong. Rather, a combination of slightly weaker than expected GDP growth in Europe and a wider trade deficit and decline in consumer confidence in the US seems to have been trumped by a decent earnings report from Walt Disney and upped Christmas guidance from JC Penney. Indeed, in the US consumer cyclicals led the way with a 1.5% gain, versus a 0.6% gain for the S&P 500. Commodity markets were mixed. The most notable features were a new closing high for gold and another sharp jump in the Baltic Dry Freight Index. The latter is now at its highest level this year, with strong Chinese demand for core and iron ore, port congestion in China and Australia and generally tight ship availability.
US stock market opening report (November 16, 2009, Monday)
Fed’s Hoenig said that there is still significant weakness to work through in the US economy. (RTRS) Also, Fed’s Dudley said the central bank could curtail the risk of future liquidity crises by providing a “backstop” to solvent firms with sufficient collateral. (BBG)
The Obama administration is leaning towards extending the troubled asset relief programme into next year, retaining part of the $700bn war chest in case of another financial emergency. (FT)
Indian stock market daily closing report (November 16, 2009)
The Sensex closed above the psychological 17,000 mark while Nifty shut above the 5,050. The Sensex rallied 184 points to settle at 17,032 and Nifty closed at 5,058 up 59 points or 1.18%. The broader indices also jumped over 1.2%. The breadth in the market was very strong but the total traded turnover was lower at Rs 76,481 cr. Realty, auto, oil & gas and metal stocks witnessed buying interest while technology stocks remained under pressure.
Russian stock market daily morning report (November 16, 2009, Monday)
On Friday the trades at the Russian market were low active again, and the quotes moved down also. At that the external background might unlikely be called calm – GDP of several state within the Eurozone were output, and also the data on foreign trade of the U.S. However the reaction to the given events was minimal. We assume the Russian market grew to the point higher which further climbing with no support from let’s say the commodity markets is impossible only using the stats. Note, similar situation was in late October, when the growth ended at the level of 1,455-1,470 points of the RTS index. Among the liquid shares we might outline the preferred shares of Transneft, which got seriously cheaper on the news about them being excluded from the MSCI index list.
World stock markets news summary (US, UK, Europe, Asia) (November 16, 2009)
Data from the latest Financial Times House Price Index show that average house prices rose by 0.7% in October and prices are at levels last seen in September 2006, about a year before prices peaked. However, house price rises are expected to slow or even reverse next year, according to mortgage lenders and brokers – as reports of higher property values encourage more sellers into the market, but the availability of home loans fails to keep pace. The Obama administration is leaning towards extending the troubled asset relief programme into next year, retaining part of the $700bn war chest in case of another financial emergency. Japan’s economy grew at the fastest pace in more than two years in the third quarter as stimulus lifted consumer spending and capital spending rose, but analysts say growth will slow as falling wages reduce the lure of subsidies on cars and electronics.
Indian stock market and companies daily report (November 16, 2009, Monday)
The Indian markets opened on a flat note, but managed to trade in the positive zone thereafter, even as US markets closed lower and Asian indices were trading mixed in the early session. The indices were highly volatile, even as they rose higher by midsession. There were sharp spikes in intra-day trade, as the indices finally closed with fair gains for the day and strong gains for the week. The Sensex and the Nifty closed with gains of 0.9% each. The BSE Mid-Cap index closed almost flat for the day, while the BSE Small-Cap index rose by 0.2%. Among the front liners, Hero Honda, Maruti, ONGC, TCS and Tata Steel gained between 1.8%-4.0%, while JP Associates, M&M, DLF, Reliance Communications and Tata Power lost between 0.0%-2.0%. In the Midcap segment, Motherson Sumi, McLeod Russel, Exide Inds., Ackruti City and HCC gained between 5.6%-10.3%, while Tech Mahindra, Dish TV, IndusInd Bank, Karnataka Bank and Spice Telecom lost between 3.7%-4.3%.
Indian stock market daily morning report (November 16, 2009, Monday)
In a volatile trading session, after opening slightly positive, the Sensex managed to end Friday’s session with around 1% upside led by metal, IT and auto stocks. Real estate and consumer durables stocks were underperformers. Recovery in the GDP of Eurozone (16 European countries) fueled the rally in most of the European markets which in turn pushed the Sensex up. Data shows these countries grew 0.4% in Q3CY09. The small rally was however not supported by volumes. NSE volumes in fact dropped significantly compared to the recent average of Rs18,000Cr. The increase in deliverable volumes on BSE was due to Satyam Computer. Market breadth was tight at 1x. Institutional turnover trend was mixed; while FIIs bought equities worth Rs471Cr, domestic institutions sold equities of Rs25Cr. Asian markets are up today as a series of positive developments boosted investor confidence. After a strong recovery of the Eurozone economies, Japan's GDP grew by 1.2% for Q3CY09, the fastest in the last 2 years. We expect a positive opening for the Indian markets today in line with the Asian markets. FII buying is a major positive.
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Russian stock market daily evening report (November 20, 2009, Friday)
The activity of the players lowered on the expectations of the week-end. During the trading session the sellers prevailed, however, full-scale correction did not happen. The preferred shares of Sberbank, and also Tatneft and Polyus Gold managed to stay within the green zone. The last mentioned shares likely were reacting to the decision by the principal holders not to conduct SPO.
World stock markets daily report (November 20, 2009)
U.S. stocks extended a global drop as concern grew that the rally has outpaced the prospects for economic growth. The yen and the dollar strengthened, oil tumbled and yields on Treasury three-month bills turned negative for the first time since financial markets froze last year. There was some bearish chat from 2 of the markets heavy hitters. Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said the “systemic risk” of new asset bubbles is rising as the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates at record lows while queen of the banking analysts, Meredith Whitney, said Thursday that bank stocks are “grossly overvalued.” So after largely ignoring a plethora of disappointing data earlier in the week, markets look decidedly weaker overnight (even though the data was perhaps ironically somewhat more encouraging). European bourses were weaker from the open and lost further ground after US markets opened. Some negative broker commentary from Bank of America / Merrill Lynch on the tech sector didn’t help matters. But I suspect that the accumulation of disappointing construction sector reports of late, culminating in yesterday’s US housing starts and permits data, means that investors are reluctant to drive markets to new highs this side of Christmas. According to the MBA, 14.41% of mortgages are now at least one payment overdue or already in the foreclosure process. 2 Year Treasury Bond yields have hit 2009 lows today, as sure sign that traders think the odds on that overhyped V-shaped recovery becoming a W have shortened considerably.
US stock market opening report (November 20, 2009, Friday)
Fed’s Plosser said that it is not quite time for the Fed to raise interest rates, adding that will have a much better sense of US economy’s path going into next year and middle of 2010. Plosser also said that he has grown more confident in economy’s recovery and is less concerned about a double-dip recession risk. Also, Fed’s Fisher said that it is some time before unemployment falls below 10% and Q3 GDP may be revised lower. Fisher also said that he doesn’t worry about the price of Gold. In other news, short-term US interest rates turned negative on Thursday as banks stockpiled government securities in order to “window dress” their balance sheets for the year-end, highlighting continuing distortions in the financial system more than a year after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. The scramble has been exacerbated by the fact that all top US banks, many sitting on big trading profits, will this year close their books at the end of December. In past years, top investment banks have reported annual results in November. Elsewhere, Federal Reserve officials are stepping up scrutiny of the biggest US banks to ensure the lenders can withstand a reversal of soaring global-asset prices, according to people with knowledge of the matter. (BBG) Also, foreign central bank US debt holdings rise USD 17.174bln to USD 2.933trl in November 18 week, according to Fed.
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Cox and Kings IPO review, analysis and recommendation, 18 November 2009
Cox and Kings proposes to make its IPO in the price band of Rs316-330/share, at a face value of Rs10 each, and to issue 1.85cr shares, of which 30.5lakh shares are offered for sale by Lehman Brothers Opportunity, Deutsche Securities Mauritius and Merrill Lynch Capital Markets Espana. Therefore, the fresh issue by the company will be to the extent of 1.55cr shares. The company plans to use the proceeds for debt repayment (Rs129.6cr), acquisitions and other strategic initiatives (Rs150cr), investment in overseas subsidiaries (Rs62.5cr), and investment in corporate offices and upgrading its existing operations (Rs60cr).
Rostelecom: Prospects are limited again, 11 November 2009
On Monday Rostelecom summed up the results of 1H 2009 by IAS. According to the report, the sales within the half year year grew by 4.4% versus 1H 2008 and formed 32.8 bn RUR. Net profit dropped from 9.8 bn RUR to 1.5 bn RUR. OIBDA margin reduced by 7.6 p.p. to the level of 17.6%.
UTV Software Communications reported revenues of Rs. 237.7 crores in Q2 FY10, 30 October 2009
UTV declared its Q2FY10 results which were above our expectations on the profitability front. The company reported revenues of Rs. 237.7 crores in Q2FY10 as against Rs. 170.9 crores in Q2FY09 a rise of 39.1% on a YoY basis and Rs. 115.4 crores in Q1FY10, a 106.0% rise on a QoQ basis. This was mainly because in Q1FY10 there was a standoff between Producers and multiplex chains and so there were no movie releases, whereas in Q2FY10 UTV had nine releases including three Disney productions as part of the exclusive distribution deal with Disney. The company reported EBIDTA of Rs. 21.5 crores in Q2FY10 as compared to a marginal loss of Rs. 0.1 crores in Q2FY09 and a loss of Rs. 32.9 crores in Q1FY10. The company reported net profits to the tune of Rs. 8.3 crores in Q2FY10 as compared to net profit of Rs. 25.1 crores in Q2FY09 a fall of 67% and a loss of Rs. 23.3 crores in Q1FY10.
Crompton Greaves posted a 16.8% yoy revenue growth to Rs1,269cr for 2Q FY2010, 30 October 2009
Crompton Greaves posted a 16.8% yoy growth in its standalone top-line to Rs1,269cr (Rs1,086cr) for 2QFY2010, which was primarily driven by the strong performance in the domestic power systems and consumer products segments. The EBITDA margin expanded by 336bp to 16.5% (13.1%), due to lower other expenses, coupled with lower raw material costs. Consequently, the standalone net profit for the quarter grew by 47.1% yoy to Rs136cr (Rs93cr). For 1HFY2010, the net profit grew by 38.2% yoy to Rs251cr (Rs181cr).
Tata Steel posted 17.8% yoy revenue decrease to Rs5,630cr for 2Q FY2010, 30 October 2009
For 2QFY2010, the Top-line witnessed de-growth of 17.8% yoy to Rs5,630cr (flat qoq), and was below our estimates of Rs6,214cr. While the sales volume increased by 19.4% yoy and 2.7% qoq to 1.45mn tonnes, average steel realisations dipped by 26.2% yoy and 2.9% qoq, to Rs35,652. This was mainly due to the increased sale of long products, which accounted for 45% of the sales (as compared to 40% in 1QFY2010). While flat product realisations were up by 5.9% qoq, long-product prices declined by 6% qoq, leading to a dip in the overall average realisations.
ONGC posted 13.2% yoy revenue decrease to to Rs15,192cr for 2Q FY2010, 30 October 2009
ONGC registered a decent set of numbers for 2QFY2010 compared to our estimates. Top-line registered de-growth of 13.2% yoy, while Bottom-line grew a marginal 5.8% yoy. The decline in Top-line to Rs15,192cr (Rs17,500cr) could be attributed to termination of sales of MRPL products and lower sales of value-added products. Crude oil sales declined to 5.55MMT (5.67MMT), while gas sales volume were flat at 5.19BCM (5.21BCM). ONGC’s Gross realisations from crude oil sales stood at US $70.5/bbl (US $119.3/bbl). During the quarter, the company shared a Subsidy burden of Rs2,630cr. Hence, Net realisations stood at US $56.4/bbl (US $46.6/bbl). While Gross realisations were in line with our estimates, Net realisations exceeded our estimates on account of the lower-than-anticipated Subsidy burden during the quarter.
| | News |
The recovery: "V", "U", "L", or "W"? (US economy monthly outlook), 19 November 2009
The "Twin" deficits, once again. (US economy weekly outlook), 19 November 2009
China Unicom gaining in iPhone war, 19 November 2009
The world invests new capital in China, 18 November 2009
The RBI began its first phase of exit from an expansionary policy by ending some liquidity support measures, 17 November 2009
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