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Reports Asia

Asian stock market, economy and companies update (December 16, 2013)

December 16, 2013, Monday, 09:32 GMT | 04:32 EST | 14:02 IST | 16:32 SGT
Contributed by Trade The News


***Observations/Insights***
- China flash manufacturing PMI hits 3-month lows, missing estimates. HSBC economist did note the "index stands above the average reading for 3Q, implying that the recovering trend of the manufacturing sector starting from July still holds up."
- AUD relatively weaker, hitting session lows after China PMI data. Longer-term, PM Abbott informally acknowledged Australia will not meet the 3-year timeframe for return to budget surplus, pinning excessive spending on the previous Labor party regime. Australia releases Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) tomorrow.
- Japan quarterly Tankan PMI was stronger in terms of the current assessment but weaker in terms of outlook. Cabinet officials are cheering the strong data, while yen is rising, as dealers surmise the better data diminishes the outlook for further BOJ easing. In terms of positioning, latest CFTC net yen shorts are down for the first time in 6 weeks after hitting multi-year highs for 3 consecutive weeks.
- Germany finalizes grand coalition with center-left SPD; Separately, Asmussen reported to leave the ECB and Pres Draghi reiterates the central bank has done all it can but may add to stimulus if more risks materialize.


***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies***
- (CN) Daily Shibor fixings: O/N: 3.4470% v 3.4321% prior (first rise in 10 sessions); 1-week: 4.3580% v 4.3000% prior (first rise in 9 sessions)
- (KR) South Korea MoF sells 10-yr govt bond; avg yield 3.655%
- (JP) BOJ to buy ¥500B in CP outright on Dec 19th
- SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings fall to 10,139 tonnes (lowest since 10,125 on July 11th) from 10,163 tonnes

- Japanese yen continued to back away from 5-year low set early on Friday, with JPY pairs down moderately across the board. USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, and AUD/JPY are all off by about 60pips at their lows from session highs below 102.70, 141.30, and 91.80 respectively. Note that the latter was within 5pips away from its multi-week trading range support. AUD was also softer against other currencies, falling as low as 0.8920 against USD immediately after the weaker than expected China flash manufacturing PMI. EUR/USD reversed its modest opening losses, rising from 1.3730 to 1.3760.


***Speakers/Political/In the Papers***
- (CN) China employees likely to have an average pay rise of 8.8% in 2014; Employees for state-owned enterprises (SOEs) may face salary cuts as they earn 1.9x more than employees in the private sector - Xinhua
- (CN) China leadership to be cautious on rural residents' permanent move to China's cities for urbanization - Chinese press
- (CN) China Stats Bureau: China pork price +0.5% in early Dec
- (CN) Total worth of approx CNY30B of lock-up shares to be eligible for trade in Shanghai during the week of Dec 16th - Chinese press
- (CN) China National Energy Administration (NEA): China Nov power consumption 448.5B kwh v 437.5B kwh m/m, +8.5% y/y (2nd highest level in 2013)
- (CN) US Navy warship USS Cowpens was forced into evasive maneuvers to avoid hitting a Chinese naval vessel on Dec 5th in the South China Sea - press
- (CN) China foreign ministry spokesperson Hong Lei: China expresses "strong dissatisfaction" with Japan PM Abe's "slanderous" comments about China's air defense identification zone - press

- (JP) Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Suga: Tankan survey greatly exceeded expectations
- (JP) Japan govt may set FY14/15 real GDP target at 1.3% - Japan press
- (JP) Japan govt forming a budget plan to issue about ¥180T (record high) in bonds in FY14/15, up from ¥174T issued in FY13/14 which is the current record - Nikkei
- (JP) Economists estimating Japan's 2013 money supply target of ¥200T to be reached a week ahead of schedule on Dec 25th; 2012-end money supply was ¥138B - Nikkei
- (JP) ASEAN and Japan leaders agree to work together to ensure freedom of overflight

- (AU) Australia PM Abbott said to have given up on govt target to return the budget to surplus in 4 years due to "profligacy" of the former Labor govt - AFR
- (NZ) New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER): Sees 3.1% GDP for FY14/15

- (IR) Iran Foreign Min Zarif: To continue talking with world leaders on its nuclear program despite US move to blacklist companies not complying with sanctions - financial press
- (IR) Saudi Royal family said to be seeking a role in talks with Iran - financial press interview
- (DE) Germany's BDI Industrial Association expects 2013 exports at 1.5%, 2014 over 2% - German press
- (EU) ECB Pres Draghi: ECB has done all it can to stimulate growth in the eurozone; Stands ready to act at a later stage - French press

- (US) House Budget Committee Chairman Ryan said to convene a meeting with House Republicans to strategize on what concessions are feasible from the Democrat side in return for raising the debt ceiling for 2014 - press citing "Fox News Sunday" interview
- (US) US budget deal in Senate may be short on votes - financial press citing Senator Durbin (D-IL)
- (US) WSJ's Hilsenrath: Recent economic data shows progress on employment and growth, but not inflation

***Equities***
Market Snapshot (as of 04:30 GMT):
- Nikkei225 -1.2%, S&P/ASX -0.3%, Kospi flat, Shanghai Composite -1.4%, Hang Seng -0.7%, Mar S&P500 -0.4% at 1,760, Feb gold -0.1% at $1,234, Jan crude oil -0.6% at $96.38/brl

Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer discretionary: Qantas Airways Ltd QAN.AU +3.3% (Australia PM plans to eliminate foreign ownership limits); Qingdao Doublestar 000599.CN +1.5%, Blue Star New Chemical Material 600229.CN +2.8%, Qingdao Kingking Applied Chemistry 002094.CN +6.5%, Minsheng Investment Management 000416.CN +1.5% (Qingdao applies for FTZ trial); Shuanghua Holdings 1241.HK -6.7% (FY guidance)
- Industrials: China Airlines 2610.TW +0.5% (JV agreement); Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine 042660.KR +3.7% (awarded order); Mitsubishi Heavy 7011.JP -1.6% (lawsuit settlement); Hi-Lex 7279.JP -1.0% (FY12/13 results); Aurizon Holdings AZJ.AU +0.2% (FY14 production guidance)
- Financials: WesFarmers Limited WES.AU +0.4% (to sell insurance underwriting operations)
- Technology: Wisesoft 002253.CN +% (awarded contract); Global Tech 143.HK +3.9^ (FY profit alert)
- Energy: AWE AWE.AU +8.4% (Exec comments)
- Healthcare: Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical 600332.CN -5.4% (vaccine recall)


***Economic Data***
- (CN) CHINA DEC HSBC/MARKIT FLASH MANUFACTURING PMI: 50.5 V 50.9E (3-month low)
- (JP) JAPAN Q4 TANKAN LARGE MANUFACTURING INDEX: 16 V 15E (highest reading since Q4 2007); LARGE ALL INDUSTRIAL CAPEX: 4.6% V 5.5%E; LARGE MANUFACTURING OUTLOOK: 14 V 17E
- (JP) JAPAN NOV TOKYO CONDOMINIUM SALES Y/Y: 22.3% V 21.4% PRIOR
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND NOV PERFORMANCE SERVICES INDEX: 56.3 V 57.7 PRIOR (first decline in 4 months)
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q4 WESTPAC CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 120.1 V 115.4 PRIOR (4-year high)
- (UK) UK DEC RIGHTMOVE HOUSE PRICES M/M: -1.9% V -2.4% PRIOR (2nd straight decline); Y/Y: 5.4% V 4.0% PRIOR