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Reports Asia

Asian stock market, economy and companies update (June 12, 2014)

June 12, 2014, Thursday, 06:55 GMT | 01:55 EST | 10:25 IST | 12:55 SGT
Contributed by Trade The News


***Highlights/Observations/Insights***
- NZD rose as much as 90pips against the dollar to 0.8650 (3-week high) and 120pips in the AUD/NZD cross following a much more hawkish than expected RBNZ statement accompanying its widely anticipated rate hike. After tightening rates by 25bps, RBNZ projected June-end GDP at 4%, reiterated that prices for New Zealands export commodities remain historically high, and also noted the high level of NZ$ not sustainable at current levels. The rally behind the kiwi was mainly due to the RBNZ projections coming as part of its quarterly policy statement, as it affirmed Dec-end 90-day bill rate at 4%, potentially signally another 2 rate hikes this year. 2016-end is still seen at 5.2%, which does little to sway or slow its previously forecasted tightening cycle of 200bps. Traders anticipated today's statement to be much more dovish and possibly signal a pause due to slowing dairy prices and persistent strength in the NZD. Instead, even some of the more skeptical analysts have now renewed expectations for another 25bp move next month.

- Australia net employment fell for the first time in 4 months and widely missed expected increase of 10K jobs, however the move lower in AUD was as brief as it was negligible. Despite the headline miss, most of the losses were in the part-time sector, which shed 27K jobs, while full-time actually gained 22K. This was also evident in the total hours worked component, as it saw its biggest rise of 26.5M in 13 months and largely made up for participation rate falling to a 8-year low of 64.6%. AUD/USD matched its 1-month highs just above $0.9410 after the RBNZ rate decision, and only sold off some 10pips on the jobs report to session-low $0.9365.

- Bank of Korea left rates on hold as widely expected in another unanimous decision. BOK said global economy is expected to sustain modest recovery while domestic growth has been impacted by the falling consumer confidence due to the ferry accident. BOK also reiterated economy will maintain negative output gap for time being and pointed to slowing growth in EM and the US taper as key external risks.

- Ahead of tomorrow's BOJ decision, local press speculated the central bank would raise its outlook on foreign economies (mainly due to strength in US jobs) while once again maintaining economic assessment for Japan. Also of note tomorrow, Japan govt will unveil draft economic policy guidelines speculated to contain a formal commitment to lower corporate tax rates of as low as in the 20pct. USD/JPY retested above the ¥102 handle, up about 15pips on the day.

***Speakers/Political/In the Papers***
- (CN) China state researcher Fan: China may continue to conduct targeted RRR cuts; PBoC should cut interbank rate to 2% - Chinese press
- (CN) Goldman Sachs China economist Song Yu: China economy likely to regain growth momentum during H2 2014 - Chinese press
- (CN) China Premier Li Keqiang: China has achieved 60% of 2014 employment target during Jan-May - financial press
- (CN) China SAFE (fx regulator): fast accumulation of fx reserves increases difficulties to set macro economic policies - financial press
- (JP) BOJ could raise its outlook on foreign economies in policy statement this week; Expected to leave domestic economic assessment unchanged as "continued to recover moderately" - Nikkei News
- (JP) BOJ to consider maintaining large balance sheet after meeting its inflation target - financial press
- (JP) Japan govt and ruling party officials said to have decided to cut corporate tax rate to 20% over the next several years (current rate above 35%) - Nikkei
- (KR) South Korea reportedly may replace Fin Min Hyun soon - Korean press

***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies***
- JGB: (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥242.6B in 0.2% (0.2% prior) 5-yr Notes; Avg yield: 0.183% v 0.185% prior; Bid to cover: 4.47x v 4.62x prior
- (CN) PBoC to drain CNY40B in 28-day repos (33rd consecutive drain); Injects net CNY104B this week v injected CNY73B prior (5th consecutive week of net injection)
- SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings fall to 10,321 tonnes from 10,354 tonnes prior (lowest since Jun 2nd)

***Equities***
US markets:
- RH: Reports Q1 $0.18 v $0.10e, R$366M v $346Me; +13.8% afterhours
- SMG: Reaffirms FY14 $3.05-3.20 v $3.20e; cuts FY14 sales guidance to flat y/y (implies FY14 Rev approx $2.82B v $2.85Be) [prior guidance was Rev +2-3% y/y]

Notable movers by sector:
- Financials: WesFarmers WES.AU -0.6% (to sell insurance broking and premium funding unit)
- Materials: Metallurgical Corp of China 1618.HK -2.6% (May sales results)
- Energy: Xinyi Solar 968.HK +6.6% (H1 guidance)
- Industrials: Chongqing Gangjiu 600279.CN +2.6%, Nanjing Port 002040.CN +4.7%, Shanghai International Port 600018.CN +1.5% (China State Council calls for development of Yangtze economic zone); Takata Corp 7312.JP -2.7%, Toyota Motor 7203.JP -0.6% (vehicle recalls); Xinyi Glass 868.HK -4.5% (H1 guidance); Hitachi 6501.JP -0.8% (FY15/16 sector sales target); Mitsubishi Heavy 7011.JP +1.7% (no decision for Alstom unit); Downer EDI DOW.AU -2.9% (analyst action); Leighton Holdings LEI.AU +0.9% (outlines strategic blueprint)
- Healthcare: Ramsay Health Care RHC.AU +3.2% (analyst action)


***Economic Data***
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND CENTRAL BANK (RBNZ) RAISES OFFICIAL CASH RATE BY 25BPS TO 3.25%, AS EXPECTED
- (AU) AUSTRALIA MAY EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: -4.8K V +10.0KE (1s decline in 4 months); UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 5.8% V 5.8%E
- (AU) AUSTRALIA APR CREDIT CARD BALANCES (A$): 49.8B V 49.8B PRIOR; CREDIT CARD PURCHASES: 21.3B V 23.0B PRIOR
- (KR) BANK OF KOREA (BOK) LEAVES 7-DAY REPO RATE UNCHANGED AT 2.50% (AS EXPECTED); 13th straight pause
- (JP) JAPAN MAY TOKYO AVERAGE OFFICE VACANCIES: 6.5% V 6.6% PRIOR
- (JP) JAPAN APR MACHINE ORDERS M/M: -9.1% (biggest decline in 4 months) V -10.8%E; Y/Y: 17.6% V 13.3%E
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA MAY EXPORT PRICE INDEX M/M: -1.6% V -2.7% PRIOR; Y/Y: -8.1% V -7.4% PRIOR; IMPORT PRICE INDEX M/M: -1.7% V -2.5% PRIOR; Y/Y: -6.8% V -6.9% PRIOR
- (UK) UK MAY RICS HOUSE PRICE BALANCE: 57% V 52%E

Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT):
- Nikkei225 -0.8%, S&P/ASX -0.3%, Kospi -0.2%, Shanghai Composite -0.2%, Hang Seng -0.3%, Jun S&P500 +0.1% at 1,945, Aug gold flat at $1,261, Jul crude oil +0.2% at $104.60/brl