Reports » Europe

European stock market, economy and companies update (May 05, 2010)

Contributed by Trade The News

By Trade The News

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
- Equities: After opening the session higher, European equities moved into negative territory as European peripheral spreads started to widen. The declines in stocks were driven by equities in Portugal, Spain and Greece. However after 4:00 am EST, bourses started to move off of the session's worst levels, and as of 5:35 EST the DAX and FTSE 100 are attempting to move into positive territory. Factors pulling equities off the session's lows included, better than expected EU PMI services data, the EU Commission cutting its Euro area deficit forecast and better than expected Q1 guidance from German insurer Allianz. Additionally, earnings from BMW and Societe Generale were supportive to markets.

- In Individual Stocks: Societe Generale [GLE.FR]: Reports Q1 Net ?1.06B v ?809Me, Rev ?6.58B v ?6.4Be; optimistic outlook on global economic environment but uncertain on regulatory and prudential environment || Anheuser-Busch InBev [ABI.BE]: Reports Q1 Net profit $891M v $955Me, Rev $8.33B v $8.2Be; reaffirms 2010 outlook, guides Q2 EBITDA growth below Q1 levels || Lafarge [LG.FR]: Reports Q1 Net ?64M v ?50Me, Rev ?3.28B v ?3.5Be; reiterates outlook, expects cement demand +0-5% in 2010 || Statoil [STL.NO]: Reports Q1 Net NOK11.1B v NOK11Be, Op income NOK39.6B v NOK35.5B y/y || Henkel [HEN3.GE]: Reports Q1 Adj op profit ?421M v ?389Me, Rev ?3.5B v ?3.4Be; expects mildly positive market conditions to remain fragile in 2010 || Swisscom [SCMN.SZ]: Reports Q1 Net CHF377M v CHF389Me, Rev CHF2.95B v CHF3Be; reiterates 2010 outlook of Rev at CHF11.1B || Xstrata [XTA.UK] Reports Q1 production; volumes increased across all commodity businesses || The Sage Group [SGE.UK]: Reports H1 EBITA ?181.9M v ?169M y/y, Rev ?718.9M v ?748.4M y/y; sees pick-up in demand, increases dividend by 3%|| BMW AG [BMW.GE: Reports Q1 Net ?324M v ?250Me, Rev ?12.4B v ?13Be; reaffirms 2010 guidance for "significantly" higher earnings|| Prudential UK [PRU.UK]: Cancelled its scheduled 7.30EST conference call with regards to its rights issue; prospectus may not be released on Wed. Company is revising the timing of its merger with AIA Group as the company is working out issues with regulators related to the transaction. Company is delaying the $21B rights issue but still expects the AIA transaction to close in Q3. | |Allianz [ALV.GE]:Guides Q1 Op profit around ?1.7B v ?1.4Be, Rev above ?30B v ?28.7Be || BAE Systems plc [BA.UK]: Provides interim management statement; Trading for the period has been consistent with management expectations || J.D. UK [JDW.UK]: Report Q3 SSS -0.6%; total sales +3.6%; Confident about prospects for financial year || Metro AG [MEO.GE]: Reaffirms 2010 guidance of FY10 Sales above prior year and guided FY10 adj EBITover prior year

- Speakers: IMF's Straus-Kahn commented that he still sees risk of contagion resulting from Greek debt crisis in a French press interview. Hw noted that Large EU countries seemed immune to risks (France, Germany). The chief noted that should a country exit from the Euro zone, then it could mark end of the single currency *** German Merkel addressed her German Parliament and stated that Greek aid was about the future of Europe and Germany. No decision on Greece aid packaged was possible without Germany and that Germany would face up to its responsibilities in Europe and must assist in a way to prevent damage from EMU. She stressed that Greece has pledged 'maximum effort' to reduce its debt and she trusted that the Greek PM wouldimplement its austerity measures. No Greece aid would result in renewed crisis in financial markets and must curb market speculation. Merkel stressed that banks must keep credit lines open to Greece and not back off its responsibility in helping Greece. Lastly she noted that EU budget deficit offenders should endure temporary loss of voting rights ***ECB's Weber commented that Greece had important structural problems and its financing on capital markets was greatly endangered. Weber saw threat of serious contagion effects for other EU states. He called any Greek bond default as a substantial risk for stability of EU and financial system. Aid to Greece was a "leap of faith" but strict conditions of Greek support measures made aid acceptable. Greece's government had promised comprehensive consolidation and reform measures. ***EU Commission released its spring forecasts and lowered the 2010 Euro Area deficit to GDP ratio to 6.6% from 6.9% prior and raised the 2010 Euro Area GDP growth to 0.9% from 0.7% prior. The Commission also cut the 2011 Euro Area deficit forecast to 6.1% from 6.5% prior. It raised 2010 Euro-Area Gov't debt forecast to 84.7% from 84.0% prior and raised the 2011view to 88.5% from 88.2% prior. Euro Area 2010 inflation was raised to 1.5% from 1.1% prior and increased its 2011 inflation view to 1.7% from 1.5% prior. It noted that the EU/IMF Greek aid program would tilt risks to the upsideand that the market turbulence reflected uncertainty in forecasts. Bank capital costs unlikely to return to pre-crisis levels *** EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Rehn stressed that there was no need to propose aid plan for Spain and he fully supported the efforts of the Greek government. He stressed that there were no other euro-area member state like Greece. Rehn also commented that it must make sure EU growth was not derailed although EU public finances have been hit hard by crisis. He added that the Greece economy would likely contract more than expected in 2010/11 period but it would not alter the overall forecasts for the EU. *** S&P official commented that markets seemed more pessimistic on possibility of Greek bond default than the rating agency was ***

- Currencies/Fixed Income: The session began with concerns that the euro-area contagion fears would fuel further liquidation in global markets. However, a plethora of European speakers continued to stress that the Greek situation was 'unique' and would not filter through the other members of the Euro Zone. The European peripheral were wider from the start of the session. The Portuguese/German 10-year spread rose above 270bps from the 250 area. Portugal sold ?50M in 6-month Bills at 2.955% with a bid-to-cover of 1.9 Times (Prior March auction was 0.739% yield and Bid-to-cover at 3.0 times). Rumors were also rampant in the session with speculation circulating that ECB might consider purchasing Greek bonds when it meets on Thursday for its scheduled monetary policy meeting. The USD was consolidating its recent steep gains against the European pairs as the main scheduled economic and fundamental events loom in the next three session.

Geopolitical: UK Politics: The three main party leaders continue their last minute campaigning before tomorrow's general election with Tories still ahead in opinion polls vying for the 326 seats needed for a parliamentary majority. A ComRes poll has the parties unchanged with Tories on 37%, Labour 29%, and Lib Dems on 26%. YouGov's places the Conservatives unchanged versus prior day on 35%, Labour up two points on 30%, and Lib Dems on 24% down four. *** EU: Concerns over debt crisis continue as speculation remain whether EU member states such as Spain and Portugal may also have difficulties in servicing high budget deficit. In an interview with French Press, IMF Chief Strauss-Kahn commented that risk of contagion from the Greek debt crisis remains, though large EU countries, namely France and German, seem to be immune.*** Germany: In an address to the German parliament, German Chancellor Merkel stressed the importance of Greek aid to the future of Europe and Germany. With respect to the financial markets, she goes on to note that no Greek aid will result in renewed crisis in the markets. ***The Icelandic volcano continues to spread its ashes on Europe as country's metrological office reported an increase in activity. This prompted Irish Aviation Authority to stop flights over Ireland beginning at 9:00 EST today. Flights remain grounded for the second day. Aerlingus will cancel all flights while Easyjet and Ryanair expect to report some disruptions. *** Disappointment over the mining tax in Australia continues to manifest from the industry with Alcoa stating that it would drive investment overseas. This echoes the previous statement notably from BHP which pointed out the threat the tax poses to the Australian competiveness. However, Australia's PM says he will not compromise with mines on the super profit tax of 40% but may compromise on A$9B federal resource tax.

***Notes/Observations:
- Deals noted that after news of renewed ash clouds, oil spills, sovereign debt concerns, and equity market slump that perhaps no news would be the only good news
- ADP employment report on the docket
- Papers all over the European peripherals situation with doom and gloom scenarios.
- IMF's Straus-Kahn: Still sees risk of contagion resulting from Greek debt crisis
- Spain PM Zapatero: Debt contagion fears 'madness'
- UK Polls indicated Conservative Cameron plus hung parliament (election on Thursday)

***Looking Ahead***
- (IN) India Mar Trade Balance: No est v -$8.9 prior
- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Apr 30th: No est v -2.9% prior
- 7:30 (US) Challenger Job Cuts: No est v -55.0% prior
- 8:00 (NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to raise the Deposit Rate by 25bps to 2.00% from 1.75% prior
- 8:00 (HU) Hungary central bank Gov Simor
- 8:15 (US) Apr ADP Employment Change: +28Ke v -23K prior
- 8:30 Fed's Rosengren
- 8:30 (CL) Chile Mar Economic Activity Y/Y: -1.6%e v 2.7% prior
- 9:00 (BR) Mar Capacity Utilization: No est v 80.4% prior
- 10:00 (US) Apr ISM Non-Manufacturing: 56.0e v 55.4 prior
- 10:00 US Tsy Miller and Rutherford on Quarterly Refunding
- 11:00 (HU) Hungary Apr Budget balance YTD: No est v -609.9B prior
- 13:00 Tsy Krueger testifies before joint economic committee

***Economic Data***
- (ID) Indonesia Central Bank maintained the Reference Rate unchanged at 6.50%; as expected
- (SP) Spain Mar Industrial Output NSA Y/Y: 6.8% v -1.9% prior; Industrial Output WDA Y/Y: 5.4% v 1.3%e
- (IR) Ireland NCB PMI Services: 51.0 v 49.6 prior; first reading above 50 since Jan 2008
- (SP) Spain Apr PMI Services: 50.9 v 51.3 prior
- (IT) Italy Apr PMI Services: 54.5 v 56.0e
- (FR) France Apr Final PMI Services: 59.2 v 57.8e; highest since Nov 2009
- (GE) Germany Apr Final PMI Services: 55.2 v 55.0e; highest since Aug 2007
- (EU) Euro Zone Apr Final PMI Service: 55.2 v 55.5e; PMI Composite: 57.3 v 57.3e
- (TT) Taiwan Apr CPI Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.5%e; WPI Y/Y: % v 7.4%e
- (NO) Norway Feb AKU Unemployment Rate: 3.5% v 3.3%e
- (UK) Apr PMI Construction: v 53.2e v 53.1 prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Mar Retail Sales M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v -0.5%e
- (IC) Iceland Central Bank (Sedlabanki) cut interest rates by 50bps to 8.50%; as expected
- (SA) South Africa Apr Business Confidence: 84.2 v 83.2 prior