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Reports Europe

European stock market, economy and companies update (December 31, 2013)

December 31, 2013, Tuesday, 10:26 GMT | 05:26 EST | 14:56 IST | 17:26 SGT
Contributed by Trade The News


***Notes/Observations***
- All the best in 2014 from TTN
- PBoC back on the sidelines, sending 1-week Shibor higher
- China resumes IPOs with 5 approvals
- Spain banking sector formally exits its bailout successfully


*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities**
Indices [Stox50 +0.1%, FTSE 100 +0.3% 6754, CAC-40 +0.2% at 4284, IBEX-35 flat at 9898, DAX closed, FTSE MIB closed, SMI closed, S&P 500 Futures flat at 1835]

- Market Focal Points: Holiday trading conditions with most of the European equity markets either closed or open for only half a day, European bourses see double digit gains for 2013 (Greece +27.5%, DAX +25.5%, IBE-35 +21%, CAC-40 +17.5%, FTSE MIB +16%, FTSE 100 +14%), Upcoming US Chicago PMI, European DEC PMI data on Thursday, Turkish equities have slight declines following more than 6% gains on Monday

- Stoxx50 Sectors [Energy +0.3%, Consumer Cyclical +0.2%, Technology +0.2%, Financials +0.2%, Utilities flat, Basic Materials flat, Consumer Non-Cyclical flat; Telecom -0.5%, Industrials -0.3%]

Speakers:
- ESM: Spain's banking sector aid program expires with a successful exit (as expected)
- German Chancellor Merkel Adviser Christoph Schmidt said to oppose ECB bond purchases.
Believes the bond purchases put less pressure on governments to pursue reforms. Says it is possible that Germany's top court will allow the OMT plan to continue with certain conditions
- Hungary Fidesz Party to discuss phasing out FX loans in Jan at Parliamentary group meeting. It noted that FX loans must be kept valid following Supreme Court decision; voiding them would be in no one's interest
- Turkey said to have tighten regulations on consumer loans with general credit card installments capped at nine months and card payment in installments for telecommunication, jewelry, food or gasoline would not be allowed as of Feb 1st, 2014. The number of monthly installment for consumer loans capped at 36 months; and car loans capped at 48 months; effective immediately
- India PM Singh would serve out his term and has no intention of stepping down ahead of the 2014 Lok Sabha polls (**Note: rumor was fueled after Prime Minister's decision to hold a rare press conference on Friday, January 3rd which would only be the third of his current tenure)
- Bank of Korea (BOK) Dec Minutes noted that one member was concerned that upward pressure on KRW currency might continue given the sizable current account surplus. Another member noted that a weak Japanese Yen could hurt Korea's exports. Another member noted rising market rates might worsen debt problems for households and businesses
- PBoC Gov Zhou New Year's address reiterates that the central bank would continue to implement prudent monetary policy next year. It would maintain stability and continuity of policy and promote financial reform and speed up innovation
- China State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) noted that end-Sept Outstanding Foreign Debt: $822.9B v $772B q/q with Short term debt: $633B v $598.6B q/q
- Singapore PM Lee New Year's Eve Message forecasted 2014 GDP growth between 2.0-4.0%vs. 3.7% seen this year

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- FX price action was non-existent ahead of the New Year holiday. Dealer noted that they would be watching funding rates in the first days of the new year for signs that the liquidity squeeze that supported the euro mid-December would continuing to fade. The ECB excess liquidity was approx. €275B (highest since July) vs. the €200B from Dec 27th.
- China yuan currency ended 2013 at 6.0539 against the USD. The yuan appreciated by 2.9% y/y vs. 1.2% rise in 2012 (**Note: The CNY currency (yuan) appreciated by 4.7% rise in 2011 and by +3.6% back in 2010)
- Spot gold was poised for its biggest annual loss since 1981 as the metal was off almost 30% in 2013 and hovering under the $1,200 level

Political/In the Papers:
- (CN) PBoC: reiterates to pursue prudent monetary policy; to keep appropriate liquidity level - Statement on Monetary Policy Meeting
- (CN) China 2014 CPI target may be set at 4.0% v 3.5% in 2013 - Chinese press

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 05:30 (CH) Switzerland to sell 3-month Bills; avg yield: % v % prior
- 06:00 (IL) Israel Nov Unemployment Rate: No est v 5.9% prior
- 06:00 (IL) Israel Q3 Preliminary GDP Annualized: No est v 2.2% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Nov Industrial Production M/M: No est v -0.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.2% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Nov Retail Sales M/M: No est v -1.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.1% prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Dec Inflation Expectations: 0.7%e v 0.7% prior
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (US) Oct S&P/ CaseShiller 20 City M/M: 0.95%e v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: 13.45%e v 13.29% prior; Home Price Index: 165.76e v 165.66 prior
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves: No est v €207.3B prior
- 09:45 (US) Dec Chicago Purchasing Manager: 60.5e v 63.0 prior
- 10:00 (US) Dec Consumer Confidence Index: 76.3e v 70.4 prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Nov Net Outstanding Loans (MXP): No est v 2.449T prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserves
- 19:00 (KR) South Korea Dec Trade Balance: $3.6Be v $4.8B prior; Exports Y/Y: 4.8%e v 0.2% prior; Imports Y/Y: +1.5%e v -0.6% prior
- 20:00 (CN) China Dec Manufacturing PMI: 51.2e v 51.4 prior
- (US) New York's New Mayor de Blasio takes office
- (US)) Budget Agreement Tax Breaks Expire
- (LV) Latvia adopts the Euro


***Economic Data***
- (ZA) South Africa M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 6.3% v 6.9%e; Private Sector Credit Y/Y: 7.0% v 7.0%e
- (FI) Finland Oct Final Trade Balance: -€34M v v -€25M prior
- (FR) France Nov Housing Starts M/M: -1.6%; Building Permits M/M: -0.8%
- (TU) Turkey Nov Trade Balance: -$7.2B v -$7.5Be
- (EU) ECB €32.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. €274M prior; €86.9B parked in deposit facility vs. €59.6B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (HK) Hong Kong Nov M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 7.4% v 8.0% prior; M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 7.4% v 8.0% prior; M1 Money Supply Y/Y: 12.6% v 13.4% prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Nov Budget Balance (HKD): 15.6B v 20.8B prior
- (CZ) Czech Nov M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 5.3% v 4.6% prior
- (MY) Malaysia Nov M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 6.7%
- (UK) Dec Lloyds Business Barometer: 48 v 50 prior
- (IN) India Nov Fiscal Deficit (INR) Crore: 51.7B v 45.8B prior
- (RU) Russia Dec CPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 6.5% v 6.5%e; CPI YTD: 6.5% v 6.5%e
- (GR) Greece Oct Retail Sales Volume: -1.0% v -5.2% prior; Retail Sales Value Y/Y: -1.9% v -6.3% prior
- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Dec 30th (RUB): 8.35T v 8.22T prior

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold INR5.0B vs. INR 5.0B indicated in 1.44% 2023 Inflation Linked Bonds; Avg Yield: 3.6211% v 3.6301% prior