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Reports Europe

European stock market, economy and companies update (January 17, 2013)

January 17, 2013, Thursday, 13:10 GMT | 08:10 EST | 18:40 IST | 21:10 SGT
Contributed by Trade The News


*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
- Indices: FTSE 100 -0.10% at 6,098, DAX -0.25% at 7,673, CAC-40 +0.50% at 3,727, IBEX-35 +0.50% at 8,620, FTSE MIB +0.70% at 17,457, SMI +0.70% at 7,355, S&P 500 Futures +0.10% at 1,466

- European equity markets are currently mixed. Germany's DAX has been the underperformer amid declines in shares of heavyweights including Bayer and Volkswagen. Factors which have been prevalent during today's trading session include the weakness in the Japanese yen, European corporate earnings, rise in safe haven government bond yields, and bond auction results out of Spain. Additionally, markets are expected to focus on today's US corporate earnings (which include Bank of America, BlackRock, Citigroup, and UnitedHealth). Chinese Q4 GDP is expected to be the focus for Friday's session.

- UK movers [Home Retail +15% (Q3 sales, raised guidance), Capital Drilling +5% (FY results),Associated British Foods +5% (sales update),Petropavlovsk +4% (FY production), NCC +3% (H1 results), Computacenter +2.5% (FY sales), Dixons Retail +1% (sales update); Mothercare -4% (Q3 sales), Aberdeen Asset Management -2% (Q4 trading update), Rio Tinto -2% ($14B non-cash impairment charge), Xstrata -1% (broker commentary)]
- Germany movers [ThyssenKrupp +2% (interest in US steel operations), Metro +1% (broker commentary), Lufthansa +0.50% (ahead of CEO commentary); SAP -1.2% (broker commentary)]
France movers [Carrefour +6% (Q4 sales),Veolia Environmental +3.5% (CEO commentary),Remy Cointreau +3% (9-month sales),France Telecom +1.5% (industry consolidation speculation), EADS +1.6% (Airbus 2012 deliveries, Boeing woes)]
- Belgium moves [Delhaize +8% (sales update)]
- Dutch movers [KPN +3.5% (takeover speculation), Ahold +0.40% (Q4 sales); ASML -3.5% (Q4 results, guidance)]
- Italy movers [Telecom Italia Media +3.5% (bid speculation), Pirelli +1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Switzerland movers [Galencia +4.5% (FY sales); SGS -1.2% (FY results)]

Speakers:
- Japan Econ Min Amari stated that his comments on JPY earlier this week were misinterpreted and he never said 100 level in USD/JPY was a turning point. He planned to attend BOJ meeting next week (Jan 21-22nd) and hoped the BOJ would understand PM Abe's strong hope to adapt 2% inflation target
- Japan LDP Sec Gen Ishiba commented that the JPY currency was in the process of correcting from excessive strength. Monetary policy must be aggressive to help the economy to recover
- Japan Chief Cabinet Secy Suga: The end of deflation and excessive JPY currency strength was proceeding smoothly
- Japan Vice Fin Min Yamaguchi commented that govt would keep fiscal discipline in FY13 budget. He added that he would attend BOJ meeting next week and expected an agreement between BOJ and govt
- Japan PM Abe reiterated his view that he would like someone with strong will to overcome deflation for new BOJ gov and this would lead to a more fundamental change in monetary policy
- Germany Fin Min Schaeuble: EMU on good path to overcome crisis but not out of the woods just yet. He did have concerns about Japan's economic policy
- German Econ Min Roesler commented that German winter growth drop was due to Euro insecurity but was confident that Germany to stay Europe's growth engine. He also noted that the ECB must remain independent
- EU's Rehn commented that France needed wide-ranging structural reforms and that the country had serious external balances
- Sweden Fin Min Borg: Dangerous to believe the EMU crisis is over and should be prepared for a turbulent year as global risks are on the downside. He reiterated view that he would welcome a weaker SEK currency in the current economic environment
- Greece Fin Min Stournaras ruled out another debt buyback and expected to meet 2.6B privatization target in 2013. He was optimistic that the country's 6-year recession would start easing by end of year. Greece might need less than the 50B set aside for bank recap due to merger savings. Biggest risk was from political pressure to ease reform efforts
- EU President Van Rompuy: Europe should get back on growth track in 2013 and hoped for more job creation in 2014. Up to national govt to ensure that austerity measures were spread fairly and would keep pressure on EU members to make reforms
- Poland Central Bank's Kazmierczak commented that further Polish rate cuts were not certain and he did not want to surprise markets. He argued that real interest rates were rising and that the central bank must also consider the PLN exchange rate. Hasty rate cuts would spur bond inflows
- ECB monthly report echoed Draghi's post rate decision press conference. Economic risks were on the downside and expected the EMU to start a gradual recovery later in 2013. Inflation pressures seen contained and Govt must reduce fiscal and structural imbalances
- ECB considering tougher loan collateral rules. ECB wants to stop lenders taking advantage of the lower burden of information it demands on loans compared with asset backed securities. Officials are reportedly still working on the proposal for improving their ability to value the so-called non-marketable assets.

Currencies:
- The JPY weakened in late Asian trading after Japan Econ Min Amari clarified his remarks from Tuesday noting that they were misinterpreted as he never stated that 100 level was a turning point. The comment helped the Niikei225 to eek out a slight gain and aided other Far East bourses to recoup the bulk of their losses. The attention was turning to Friday's release of China's Q4 GDP data. The USD/JPY moved back above the 89 handle ahead of the NY morning while EUR/JPY cross was above 119.
- The EUR/USD entered the European session on a firmer noted, helped by bids in the EUR/JPY cross. Markets initially thought today's catalyst would be the Spanish bond auction this to set the trading tone but this was not the case. The EUR/USD tested above 1.3350
- EUR/CHF cross moved back above the 1.2450 handle for highest level since Oct 2011
- Spanish bond auction results were seen as steady but nowhere as impressive as the one last week. Spain did sell the upper end of indicated range at lower yields but also lower cover. The 10-year spread against the German Bund did pare its earlier tightening afterwards. Nonetheless the markets seemed relieved that with a growing confidence in Spain's ability to finance itself for now
Political/ In the Papers:
-(EU) ECB's Asmussen (Germany): EMU seeing no inflation pressure; Germany not under threat of recession
- EUR/USD: Morgan Stanley's Hans Redeker said the repatriation of funds by euro zone banks has supported the Euro
- (PT) Portugal may issue 5-year bonds in the coming days because of strong demand from its first Bill sale of 2013
- (PT) Moody's: Outlook on Portugal banking system remains negative
-(GR) IMF's Lagarde: Greece program is moving in the right direction, but still needs to enact forceful reforms and get long term support from EMU partners
- (CN) China Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) researcher Ming: PBoC not likely to cut rates; May still cut RRR this year - financial press
- (CN) China Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) researcher Gao Haihong: US Fed's QE may lead to global inflation - Chinese press

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (AR) Argentina Jan Consumer Confidence: No est v 46.43 prior
- 06:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell up to 1.3-1.7B in inflation-linked 2018, 2019 and 2027 bonds
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Dec CPI M/M: No est v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.8% prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Dec CPI EU Harmonized M/M: No est v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.6% prior
- 06:00 (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Jan 11th: No est v $537.4B prior
- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Rep. to sell 3-month Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 08:00 (RO) Romania to sell Bonds
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Nov CNI Capacity Utilization: 81.1%e v 81.0% prior
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 368Ke v 371K prior; Continuing Claims: 3.150Me v 3.109M prior
- 08:30 (US) Dec Housing Starts: 890Ke v 861K prior; Building Permits: 905Ke v 900K (revised from 899K)
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Nov Int'l Securities Transactions: C$10Be v C$13.3B prior
- 08:30 (US) Net Export Sales data
- 08:30 (BR) Brazil to sell 2013, 2015 and 2016 Bills
- 08:30 (BR) Brazil to sell Fixed-rate 2019 and 2023 bonds
- 10:00 (US) Jan Philadelphia Fed: 6.0e v 8.1 prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel attends Lower Saxony Election Rally in Stade
- 11:00 (US) IMF's Lagarde news conference
- 11:00 (US ) Fed to purchase $2.75-3.50B in Notes
- 11:00 (US) Treasury 10-year Tips announcement
- 12:05 (US) Fed's Lockhart speaks at summit
- 13:30 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel attends Lower Saxony Election Rally in Oldenburg
- 14:00 (DE) German Bundesbank member Dombert
- 16:00 (CL) Chile Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave the Nominal Overnight Rate Target unchanged at 5.00%
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Nov Trade Balance: $137.0Be v $22.4M prior; Imports: No est v $5.2B prior
- 21:00 (CN) China Q4 Real GDP Q/Q: 2.2%e v 2.2% prior; Y/Y: 7.8%e v 7.4% prior; Real GDP YTD Y/Y: 7.7%e v 7.7% prior
- 21:00 (CN) China Dec Industrial Production Y/Y: 10.2%e v 10.1% prior; Industrial Production YTD Y/Y: 10.0%e v 10.0% prior
- 21:00 (CN) China Dec YTD Fixed Urban Assets Y/Y: No est v 20.7% prior
- 21:00 (CN) China Dec Retail Sales Y/Y: 15.1%e v 14.9% prior; Retail Sales YTD Y/Y: 14.3%e v 14.2% prior
- 23:30 (JP) Japan Nov Final Industrial Production Y/Y: No est v -5.8% prior; Capacity Utilization M/M: No est v 1.6% prior
- (US) Fed's Fisher speaks on banks in Washington


***Notes/Observations***
- Singapore exports register largest drop in 14 months
- Australia Dec employment change comes in below expectations with first negative reading in four months; worst two month job growth since 1997. Shares hit 20 month highs on RBA rate cut hopes
- Dealers focus on China GDP set for release on Friday
- IMF approves both Greece and Portugal tranches as progress is made
- Boeing 787 Dreamiliner grounded indefinitely
- Japan Econ Min Amari clarifies his JPY currency remarks from earlier this week; says he was misinterpreted; Niikei225 rallies on close
- Spanish bond auction results has growing confidence in its ability to finance itself for now

***Economic Data***
- (EU) ECB: 0.0 borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 589M prior; 173.3B parked in deposit facility vs. 230.5B prior
- (CH) Swiss Dec Producer & Import Prices M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 0.9%e
- (NL) Netherlands Dec Unemployment Rate: 7.2% v 7.0% prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Dec Unemployment Rate: 3.3% v 3.4%e
- (BR) Brazil Jan FGV Inflation IGP-10 M/M: 0.4% v 0.6%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Nov Construction Output M/M: -0.4% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: -4.7% v -3.3% prior

Fixed Income:
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 4.505B vs. 3.5-4.5B indicated range in 2015, 2018 and 2041 Bonds
- Sold 2.409B in 3.75% Oct 2015 Bono Bond; Avg Yield 2.713% v 3.358% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.02x v 4.80x prior; Maximum Yield 2.770% v 3.389% prior; Tail 5.7bps v 3.1bps prior
- Sold 1.584B in Jan 4.5% 2018 Bono Bond; Avg Yield 3.770% v 3.988% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.32x v 2.59x prior; Maximum Yield 3.808% v 4.033% prior; Tail 3.8bps v 4.5bps prior
- Sold 512M in 4.70% July 2041 Bono bond; Avg Yield 5.696% v 6.002% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.00x v 1.97x prior; Maximum Yield 5.705%; Tail 0.9bps
- (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) sold total 7.99B vs. 7.0-8.0B indicated range in 2015, 2017 and 2018 Oats
- Sold 2.35B in 2.5% 2015 BTAN; Avg Yield 0.24% v 0.12% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.86x v 3.02x prior
- Sold 1.585B in 3.75% Apr 2017 Oats; Avg Yield 0.74% v 2.42% prior; Bid-to-cover:2.79 x v 4.40x prior
- Sold 4.05B in new 1.0% 2018 Oat; Avg Yield 1.06% v 0.76% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.90x v 2.56x prior
- (IE) Ireland Debt Agency (NTMA) sold 500M in 3-month bills; Avg Yield 0.200% v 0.550% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.79x v 4.12x prior
- (UK) DMO sold 1.0B in 0.125% 2029 I/L Gilt; Real Yield -0.367% v -0.025% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.02x v 1.84x prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF60B vs. HUF50B indicated 12-Months Bills; Avg Yield 5.33% v 5.30% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.08x v 2.53x prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF7B vs. HUF7B indicated new May 2019 Floating Rate Note; Avg Price 94.43