Russian stock market daily evening report (November 18, 2009, Wednesday)
By Veles Capital
Stocks
Market today. The trades began with price growth on the main range of shares against the background of the oil price increase. As usually the shares of Sberbank and Gazprom were bought. Among the shares of the 2nd echelon we might outline active demand of KAMAZ against the background of yesterday statements by Putin relating the efficiency of anti-crisis measures and state bail for the enterprise. The close of the session was more or less positive on behalf of the weak data from the newly built houses market of the U.S.
Market tomorrow. The output data on fuel supplies in the U.S. might make positive affect on the commodity market and oil price. Against the given background purchases might activate at the share market.
Bonds
Market today. Growth went on at the bond market. Primarily that related the ruble bonds. Purchases were in various FLB and Moscow 54 and 62. Also demand was for the most liquid notes, such as: LUKOIL, NLMC, Mechel and NWT. In Eurobonds bids were visible also, though they were less aggressive than in ruble notes.
Market tomorrow. Auction on annual MMC note is expected. Considering from the way the other metallurgy workers are traded, the placement should be a success. Totally growth is expected due to funding is cheap and ruble is strong.
No comment
The number of newly-built houses in the U.S. dropped in October by 10.6% to 529 thousand buildings; growth by 1.7%was expected. (Interfax)
Core CPI index in the U.S. grew in October by 0.2%, upping by 0.1%. (Interfax)
Rate of refinancing in 2010 might reduce lower than 9% if the inflation is lower 9-10%. (CB)
Growth peak of overdue in the bank sector of RF is close, reduction of its growth rates might begin in January. (CB)
Net outflow of capital from the RF within 10 months formed 53 bn USD. (CB)
CB RF believes that in 2010 inflation might be lower than the target (9-10%). (CB)
Gazprom and Inter RAO are carrying out negotiations on exchange of energy assets in power energy sector. (Interfax)
The state does not plan participating in the additional emission by RusHydro for the recovery of Sayano-Shushinskaya HEPS. (Shmatko)
Vekselberg believes that IPO of RusAl will take place till the end of the year. (Interfax)
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Russian stock market daily morning report (February 09, 2010, Tuesday)
The Russian share market began the morning with smooth recovery after the drop of the previous week. However the purchases did not last long and in the afternoon the principal liquid shares were losing 2-4% average. Main reasons of sale were the same – instability of the global economy and worsening of the commodity conjuncture. Investors were actively getting rid of the oil-and-gas and bank sector’s shares. However there were some notes that closed the day positively against the negative background. Polyus Gold and Norilsk Nickel were among the ones that went up due to increased demand of metal.
Russian stock market daily morning report (February 08, 2010, Monday)
On Friday the Russian share market rolled back to the level of the end of the previous year. The main reasons for the run from the financial markets are the worsening problems in European Union. Against the given background dollar rate is rapidly climbing versus the global currencies and the prices of commodities are dropping, including the oil prices, which is trading lower than 72 USD. First of all suffered the oil-and-gas and metallurgy plants shares – branch indices dropped 3.6% and 4.2% respectively. Also banks lost a lot – 3.3%. Positive stats on unemployment level in the U.S. came out in the afternoon, which helped slightly compensate the morning drop of the RTS index, however, by the day results the market still remained within the negative zone.
Russian stock market daily morning report (February 05, 2010, Friday)
Thursday turned out to be losing on all counts for the Russian share market. The RTS index did not manage to stay higher than 1,500 points and rolled back to January levels. The reason for decadent mood was the negative conjuncture of the commodity and exchange grounds. The oil prices went down to 74 USD against the background of dollar rate increase and growth of fuel supplies in the U.S. Besides, in the afternoon the stats on the U.S. labor market turned out to be worse than expected, which leaded to the drop of foreign exchange grounds and accelerated the reduction of the domestic indices. A wave of sale swapped the oil shares – Gazprom, Rosneft and LUKOIL. Bank sector was in active sale also. The shares of the telecommunication and consumer sectors looked better than the market – branch indices slipped by just 0.8% and 1% respectively.
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Surgutneftegas: Currency rates are putting away the dividends..., 26 November 2009
We have revised our model of Surgutneftegas. The reason for that was the output of the 3Q 2009 report, correction of our suppositions of the company’s future development, and also the postponing of the target time and evaluation one year forward. Particularly, in our model of Surgutneftegas we have corrected the former forecast of income for the current year towards reduction: on EBIT – by 2.2%, on the net profit – by 21.5%. Mainly that happened due to the corrections on the operating estimates, and also due to the continuing strengthening of Russian ruble, which, considering significant dollar liquidity of the company, turns into negative currency exchange. Due to the negative currency exchange precisely For the second quarter in a row Surgutneftegas shows low level of the net profit. The fourth quarter, as we see it, will not make an exception and we expect negative currency exchange similar to the ones in the third quarter.
Gazprom: Having passed the bottom, 23 November 2009
We have revised our estimation of Gazprom’s shares. The reason for up-dating the company’s model was the report by IAS for 1H 2009, the budget draft for the next year and corrections of WACC method calculation. The provided financial report of the gas monopoly totally brought no surprises. As it has been expected, the second quarter was worse than the first one and likely was the weakest within the whole year. In 1H 2009 the financial estimates were affected by the decline of the gas sale at all markets by 22.3% average, and by the reduction of the retail price of gas by 9.6% in the state of the far abroad and by 24% in Russia. As a result within the six months of the year 2009 sales slipped by 24.1 bn USD or by 32.8% and formed 49.285 bn USD, operating profit and EBITDA showed reduction by 56.7% and 52.6% respectively and formed 12.98 bn USD and 16.18 bn USD.
Rostelecom: Prospects are limited again, 11 November 2009
On Monday Rostelecom summed up the results of 1H 2009 by IAS. According to the report, the sales within the half year year grew by 4.4% versus 1H 2008 and formed 32.8 bn RUR. Net profit dropped from 9.8 bn RUR to 1.5 bn RUR. OIBDA margin reduced by 7.6 p.p. to the level of 17.6%.
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