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Russian stock market daily evening report (February 05, 2010, Friday)

Contributed by Veles Capital

By Veles Capital

Stocks
 

Market today. Drop of the RTS index accelerated against the background of the negative close of trades in the U.S. and the oil prices that fell to 72 USD. Besides, more and more alarms are arising on the state of the economy of several European Union states, which might lead to full scale drop of the financial markets. Against the given background within the last day of the week the RTS index rolled back to the levels of December’s third decade, having even broken through the support level. Investors were getting rid of everything with no favorites. Large volumes went on Sberbank, Gazprom and LUKOIL. Stats on the unemployment level in the U.S. turned out to be better than expected and had slightly compensated the daytime drop of the RTS index.

Market tomorrow. The state of the economy within the Eurozone, which shows that the crisis still is in its active phase, causes great alarms. That might force further dollar rate upping and drop of commodities prices. So, no positive prospects are seen for now. However within the frames of the technical correction on Monday the trades might open with climbing up. The oil prices standing higher than 70 USD level might be a supporting factor.
 
 

Bonds
                                                         
Market today. Both ruble bonds and Eurobonds have been climbing since morning. The entire first echelon of the Eurobonds slipped on not high volumes. The ruble notes showed similar dynamics – the first echelon dropped 0.2-0.3 p.p. average. Russia 30 went low to 111.75% of the nominal value. After the output of not bad data on unemployment level in the U.S. the market went a bit positive.

Market tomorrow. Next week fuel supplies in the U.S. will be worth paying attention to against the background of the end of the heating season, and also rapid dollar rate upping versus threat of defaults in Europe. Attention should be driven to the problems of real estate market in Spain, Greece and Portugal, which might in echelon sweep throughout the whole developed part of the world and provoke the run of capital from the markets. If the given factors come together and dollar rate exceeds 31 USD, the market will slip significantly.
 
 

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Unemployment in the U.S. dropped in January to 9.7% from 10%, experts did not expect any changes. Number of work positions in the U.S. reduced in January by 20 thousand, growth by 15 thousand was expected. (Interfax)
Industrial production in Germany in December dropped by 2.6%, growth by 0.6% was expected. (Interfax)
Gazprom lowered the extraction plan for 2010 from 530 bn cubic meters to 520 cubic meters and accounts on upping EBITDA estimates in 2010 by 17.6-20.5% to 40‑41 bn USD. In 2009 the company has received profit from selling gas at the domestic market for the first time – 70 bn RUR. (Company)
NOVATEK plans extracting 37 bn cubic meters of gas in 2010. (Company)
AvtoVAZ accounts on selling about a 100 thousand vehicles on behalf of the program of motor-car dismantlement. (Interfax)
Promtractor has once again tolerated a technical default on 3rd series bonds. (Interfax)