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Russian stock market daily evening report (February 18, 2013, Monday)

Contributed by Veles Capital

Stocks

Market today. Carlsberg and Telefonica output unexpectedly weak stats and that made doubts grow about stability of the consumer demand and soon improvement of the economic situation in the EZ. Russian market followed Europe. Mild reduction indicated in almost all sectors. Shares of OGK-2 and Rostelecom were above market.

Market tomorrow. Having no evening trade in the U.S. (due to celebration of President’s Day), tomorrow the Russian market will be referring to Europe – Russian market will be able to win back the reaction of European investors to the statement of Draghi to the Europarliament. Hints on smoothing the monetary policy from the head of ECB might be a good reason to grow. While recent statement of Bundesbank on Germany managing to avoid recession can actually be taken as a signal of Germany not being ready to agree to monetary policy smoothing. That means most likely Draghi’s statement disappoints the investors and helps the correction trends to proceed. In the afternoon ZEW index data might be determinative.

Bonds

Market today. The day at the ruble debt market was calm due to a holiday in the U.S. Quotes were moving within a narrow range of +/-10 bps vs Friday close levels. Cautious sale prevailed in the BFL segment, yield increased 1-3 bps. In the corporate sector deals were indicated in the notes: RUSAL-7, MOESK MN-1, VEB-18, -19, -21. Eurobonds were nearly not traded at all due to American market being closed.

Market tomorrow. Tuesday the market probably continues moving sideways while waiting for some news from the West. Investors will follow the data output on economic sentiment index in Europe and Germany.