Russian stock market evening report by Veles Capital (June 24, 2009, Wednesday, 4.00 p.m. GMT)
Stocks
Market today. The market was reanimated by the climbing oil prices and unexpectedly good stats on orders for goods of long-term use in the U.S. Sberbank caught up the loss of the two previous days. Gazprom was actively taken. The remaining shares were of less demand.
Market tomorrow. We do not exclude that the mood might change after the output of week data on selling new-built houses in the U.S. Besides, the oil prices began correcting against the background of supplies in the States, which is negative for our export-oriented market.
Bonds
Market today. The climbing at the share market, the dynamics of which correlate to the movement of the Russian debt market, has once again made its impact. The buyers returned to the new issues of X5, MTS and LUKOIL. Also the notes of VTB-5, AIZK 10 and Systema-01 climbed up. At the Eurobond market the main event was the statement by the vice-president and member of the board of Sberbank Alexander Morozov on the bank intending to cover ahead of schedule the Eurobond with due date in 2015, which earlier had an option call for February 2010. The reaction was immediate – the issue grew in price by more than 6 p.p., and also price growth related a number of other bank notes. As for the others, the sellers prevailed.
Market tomorrow. We assume the exchange market dynamics likely confirms the overheating of the market. So, the drop will continue on the shares and bonds. Anyway the end of the quarter is coming soon.
No comment
The orders of long-term use in the U.S. grew in price unexpectedly in May by 1.8%. (Interfax)
By the provisional data of Rosstat, the inflation from June 1 to 15 formed 0.3%, within a period from the beginning of 2009 – 7.1%. (Interfax)
Gazprom expects reduction of export volumes by 11% in 2009, export sales by 38%. (Interfax)
Total purchases 49% in the subsidiary of NOVATEK for joint development of Termocarstovoe deposit (frost-thaw deposit). Total might participate in the second stage of Shtokman development. (Interfax)
Sberbank now has a new large minority – a natural person, which purchased 1.4% of shares. (Interfax)
Mechel corrected the investment program for 2009-2012, it will invest 2.9 bn USD. (Company)
Net profit of NMTP by IAS in 1Q 2009 reduced by 40%, sales grew by 4.5%. (Company)
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Russian stock market daily morning report (March 19, 2010, Friday)
On Thursday the Russian share market was lightly volatile. The trades began with the slight gap down, but during the first minutes the market changed the movement direction and began climbing. In the second half of the trading session the sharfes were mainly slipping down. The oil quotes were the main driving factors. Besides, the stats on the unemployment of the U.S. showed slight restricting affect on the quotes. Among the liquid shares we should outline the shares of Rosneft and Vimpelcom. Shares of Rosneft continued slipping down due to the news on possible problems will accounting for the sold oil as a result of the acts by the courts of the U.S. and the UK. In case of Vimpelcom the quotes reduction of the company’s shares was indicated at NYSE, which might have been related to the possibility of excluding the notes of the operator from MSCI Barra indices.
Russian stock market daily evening report (March 19, 2010, Friday)
The movement at the market was wavy today. So, the beginning of the trading session was active against the background of total positive. Then at noon against the background of the statement by the head of ECB local correction began, which has been strengthened by the rates upping in India.
Russian stock market daily morning report (March 18, 2010, Thursday)
On Wednesday the movement of the Russian indices gave a good run for market participants’ money. The session was extremely volatile, but in the end the market closed with good adding. Basing on positive macroeconomic stats and news early that day, and also on the climbing Asian and commodity markets, the open of the Russian markets was optimistic. The shares were adding more than percent since the very open. Later on the growth was warmed up by the open of European grounds and domestic indices reached maximum levels, having added on RTS and MICEX 2.1% and 1.5% respectively. However, closer to the end of the session a slight wave of sale swapped the market, being provided by the correction at the oil market because of the output information on oil supplies in the U.S. Also several corporate stories were developing at a time. Such as the possible claims against Rosneft on behalf of the foreign legal authorities of U.S. and UK on YUKOS case that still is in progress and made the shares of the given company become outsiders. So by the end of the day they lost 1.5%. Also rally went on in the shares of Gazprom Neft due to approved long-term dividend strategy. The shares of LUKOIL were among the growth leaders, due to Wednesday the head of the company confirmed that in April the deposit after Yu.Korchagin at Caspian would be launched and that is supposed to affect the extraction level of the current year positively. On Wednesday growth continued in the power energy segment also and the reason for that was the total fundamental underestimation of the shares within the sector.
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Surgutneftegas: Currency rates are putting away the dividends..., 26 November 2009
We have revised our model of Surgutneftegas. The reason for that was the output of the 3Q 2009 report, correction of our suppositions of the company’s future development, and also the postponing of the target time and evaluation one year forward. Particularly, in our model of Surgutneftegas we have corrected the former forecast of income for the current year towards reduction: on EBIT – by 2.2%, on the net profit – by 21.5%. Mainly that happened due to the corrections on the operating estimates, and also due to the continuing strengthening of Russian ruble, which, considering significant dollar liquidity of the company, turns into negative currency exchange. Due to the negative currency exchange precisely For the second quarter in a row Surgutneftegas shows low level of the net profit. The fourth quarter, as we see it, will not make an exception and we expect negative currency exchange similar to the ones in the third quarter.
Gazprom: Having passed the bottom, 23 November 2009
We have revised our estimation of Gazprom’s shares. The reason for up-dating the company’s model was the report by IAS for 1H 2009, the budget draft for the next year and corrections of WACC method calculation. The provided financial report of the gas monopoly totally brought no surprises. As it has been expected, the second quarter was worse than the first one and likely was the weakest within the whole year. In 1H 2009 the financial estimates were affected by the decline of the gas sale at all markets by 22.3% average, and by the reduction of the retail price of gas by 9.6% in the state of the far abroad and by 24% in Russia. As a result within the six months of the year 2009 sales slipped by 24.1 bn USD or by 32.8% and formed 49.285 bn USD, operating profit and EBITDA showed reduction by 56.7% and 52.6% respectively and formed 12.98 bn USD and 16.18 bn USD.
Rostelecom: Prospects are limited again, 11 November 2009
On Monday Rostelecom summed up the results of 1H 2009 by IAS. According to the report, the sales within the half year year grew by 4.4% versus 1H 2008 and formed 32.8 bn RUR. Net profit dropped from 9.8 bn RUR to 1.5 bn RUR. OIBDA margin reduced by 7.6 p.p. to the level of 17.6%.
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