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US stock market, economy and companies update (December 04, 2013)
- It has been a busy Wednesday morning, with plenty of news and data for traders to sort through. The tone has turned decidedly positive mid-morning after a more negative start earlier in the US session. As of writing the DJIA is up 0.03%, the S&P500 is up 0.09% and the Nasdaq is up 0.12%
- The strong November ADP jobs report is raising expectations for Friday's Labor Department employment data dump. The 215K headline gain crushed consensus estimates and the September low-ball reading of 130K was revised up to 184K. The growth was broad-based, with small businesses recording their largest estimated gain since January (102K). A strong non-farm payrolls number could make it very hard to deny that "substantial improvement" in labor market conditions has been seen. Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi said he expects Friday's NFPs to be around +200K (consensus estimates are around +184K).
- The November ISM non-manufacturing survey provided a more bearish counterpoint to the ADP report. The survey missed expectations and declined to its lowest level since June, while both the employment and new orders subindices declined.
- Yesterday's big gains in WTI crude topped out overnight, with the front-month contract notching $97.50 before heading south. The consensus is that TransCanada's disclosure of a start date of January 3rd for the company's Cushing to Port Arthur pipeline drove the gains in crude yesterday, goosed on by the huge and unexpected 12M bbl drawdown seen in the weekly API crude inventories. The contract is about a buck off its highs as of writing as OPEC oil ministers agree in Vienna to sustain output at 30M bpd.
- There have been multiple press reports out of Washington, DC that the special House-Senate budget conference is reportedly close to achieving a budget deal. Rep. Ryan (R-WI) and Senator Murray (D-WA) have fixed on a less-is-more approach, with Democrats reportedly foregoing revenue via closing tax loopholes as Republicans give up spending reductions via Medicare and Social Security cuts.
- Deere added a sizeable $8B to its share buyback authorization this morning. This represents 25% of the firm's market cap and is the first major share buyback authorization since the $5B authorized in 2008. Shares of DE are up 3.7% on the news.
- Shares of GM are up 2.7% this morning after Hayman Capital boosted its stake in the automaker. Hayman Chief Kyle Bass said that GM is undervalued to its peers and noted that he expects the stock to appreciate 40% over the next 18 months.
- JC Penny trumpeted what it called a strong Thanksgiving weekend comp gain of +10.1% y/y. Investors were not impressed, and analysts suggested that many had wanted a better result to show the firm was really beginning to consolidate its sales gains. Shares of JCP are down 3.7%.
- Mall retailer Express more or less met expectations in its Q3 report, but also cut its FY13 earnings outlook and tempered its comp growth forecast. Express's CEO said that Thanksgiving week sales were better y/y but did not meet the company's expectations. Echoing many other players, Express said it expects the intensity of promotions to reach heightened levels and reduced guidance accordingly. EXPR is down 21%. ARO is down 4% in sympathy.
- Pandora reported its November audience metrics this morning, showing active listeners grew 16% y/y. This is down from 20% growth last month and 25% growth in September. Growth in listener hours continues to hold up, however. Shares of Pandora are up nearly 6% this morning.
- 13:00 (IT) Italy PM Letta with EU President Van Rompuy in Rome
- 14:00 (US) Federal Reserve Beige Book
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Nov PPI M/M: No est v -0.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v -1.9% prior
- 18:00 (KR) South Korea Q3 Final GDP Q/Q: No est v 1.1% prelim; Y/Y: No est v 3.3% prelim
- 19:30 (AU) Australia Oct Trade Balance: -A$350Me v -A$284M prior
- (IE) Ireland Nov Live Register Monthly Change: -3.4K v -3.9K prior; Unemployment Rate: 12.5 v 12.6% prior
- (BR) Brazil Oct Industrial Production M/M: 0.6% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.4%e
- (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) left its Base Rate unchanged at 2.50%; as expected
- (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Nov 29th: -12.8% v -0.3% prior
- (BR) Brazil Nov PMI Services: 52.3 v 52.1 prior; 2nd straight month of growth
- (US) Nov ADP Employment Change: +215K v +170Ke
- (CA) Canada Oct Int'l Merchandise Trade: +C$80M v -C$770Me
- (US) Oct Trade Balance: -$40.6B v -$40.0Be
- (US) Nov Final PMI Services: 55.9 v 57.1 prelim
- (MX) Mexico Nov Consumer Confidence: 88.7 v 92.0e
- (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) leaves Interest Rates unchanged at 1.00%, as expected
- (US) Nov ISM Non-Manufacturing: 53.9 v 55.0e
- (US) Oct New Home Sales: 444K v 429Ke
- (US) DOE Crude: -5.59M v 0Me; Gasoline: +1.83M v +1.2Me; Distillate: +2.65M v -1.5Me
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