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US stock market, economy and companies update (February 28, 2013)

Contributed by Trade The News

- US indices are having trouble maintaining their momentum this morning despite the higher revisions to Q4 GDP. Note that after the open, the IMF warned that implementation of the sequester would force it to revise its US GDP forecast lower. The DJIA is flat, the S&P500 is up 0.5% and the Nasdaq is up 0.25%. European indices are closing at their highs as traders treat the Italy situation as comic opera.

- The second reading of US Q4 GDP was a hair better than the first reading, rising to +0.1% from the initial -0.1%, which had been the first contraction seen since Q4 of 2009. The better showing is due to revisions to the trade data (higher exports, fewer imports). Meanwhile, personal consumption growth remains above 2%.

- Shares of Groupon are down a whopping 24% this morning after the firm's big Q4 loss, leading many to question the viability of the daily deals business. Multiple analysts cut estimates on the name. Groupon says it is trying to move from the daily deals into e-commerce sales, where it will face entrenched competition from the likes of Amazon and Google.

- JC Penny is down 19% or so following its disastrous Q4 report, which one analyst called the worst quarterly results by a retailer in history. The bleeding continues apace, with comps down nearly 32% in the quarter. CEO Johnson admitted that mistakes had been made and said a new promotional strategy would be adopted.

- Mylan reported very solid earnings in its Q4, including a 25% y/y gain in profits, and also disclosed that it would acquire Indian injectable drugs company Agila from Strides Arcolab for $1.6B. The new unit is a specialist in generic drugs supplied to a spectrum of emerging markets.

- Mining equipment name Joy Global widely beat earnings expectations in its Q1 and reaffirmed its FY13 forecast. The firm warned that while things are looking up for commodities, there could be a lag in the recovery's follow through to the firm's results. JOY had gained as much as 3% in the first hour of trading, but it has given up gains.

***Looking Ahead***
- 12:00 (US) EIA Monthly Natural Gas Production report
- 12:30 (US) Feds Raskin speaks on banking in Atlanta
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Jan Construction Activity M/M: No est v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 8.0% prior
- 18:30 (JP) Japan Jan National CPI Y/Y: -0.2%e v -0.1% prior; CPI Ex Food, Energy Y/Y: -0.7%e v -0.6% prior
- 20:00 (CN) China Feb Manufacturing PMI: 50.5e v 50.4 prior
- 20:00 (US) Fed's Evans speaks in Des Moines, Iowa

***Economic Data***
- (ZA) South Africa Jan Trade Balance (ZAR): -24.5B v -2.7B prior
- (DE) Germany Feb Preliminary Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.6% v +0.7%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.7%e
- (DE) Germany Feb Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.8% v +0.7%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.7%
- (US) Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q Annualized: +0.1% v +0.5%e; Personal Consumption: +2.1% v 2.3%e
- (US) Q4 Preliminary GDP Price Index: 0.9% v 0.6%e; Core PCE Q/Q: 0.9% v 0.9%e
- (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 344K v 360Ke; Continuing Claims: 3.074M v 3.140Me
- (CA) Canada Jan Industrial Product Price M/M: 0.0 v 0.3%e; Raw Materials Price Index M/M:3.8% v +1.3%e
- (CA) Canada Q4 Current Account (BOP): -$17.3B v -$17.0Be
- (US) Feb NAPM-Milwaukee: 52.0 v 51.3 prior
- (US) Feb Chicago Purchasing Manager: 56.5 v 52.0e
- (MX) Mexico Jan Net Outstanding Loans (MXN): 2.29T v 2.287T prior
- (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories: -171 bcf v -160 TO -170 bcf expected
- (US) Feb Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity: -10 v -2 prior