July 28, 2014, Monday
Risk of further expansion of the sanctions does preserve and the situation is up tight. We assume that the trend towards reduction of the Russian indices does not change this week. The big news of Monday is announcement of the decision arbitration court in Hague on Yukos case. The word is that the Dutch court admitted that Russia has violated the Energy Charter in Yukos case and has actually admitted expropriation of the oil company, having evaluated the loss at 50 bn USD. Decisions on expanding sanction might be made by EU.
July 18, 2014, Friday
We believe that the domestic stock market opens on Friday morning in the red and the downward trend will continue throughout the day. Primarily this will contribute to a serious drop in world sites on the negative news background on Malaysian Airlines plane crash in the Donetsk region, which killed 295 passengers.
July 17, 2014, Thursday
The Russian stock market was down today under the pressure of new sanctions, which the U.S. government entered against Rosneft, Novatek, Vnesheconombank and Gazprombank. New sanctions deprived of the possibility to receive U.S. loans more than 90 days, but does not prohibit American partners to support them with the other business relationships and carry out financial transactions.
July 14, 2014, Monday
We assume that the domestic stock market opening on Monday will not have a single dynamic, but mostly open in the green zone, continuing a positive trend with the global grounds, but during the day correction may be on the background of the upcoming dividend cutoffs LUKOIL, Gazprom, Surgut. Asia-Pacific stock indexes grow in the course of trading on Monday. European stock indexes rose slightly on Friday. U.S. stock indexes finished trading on Friday, a slight increase, which allowed them to significantly reduce the loss by the end of the past week.
July 11, 2014, Friday
Trading on the Russian stock market today are volatile, the reason for that served as external news background with global sites caused by concerns about the stability of the financial system in Portugal. This morning was published statements of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis that the regulator may raise interest rates sooner than expected. U.S. stocks fell in early trading on Friday amid published accounts of companies.
July 10, 2014, Thursday
Protocol of the Fed session posted yesterday evening, indicates that regulator still is for stimulation policy. Lack of signals of tightening the monetary policy was the reason for the American market to climb. Positive effect from American news will be partially compensated by the data on export from China, which appeared to underperform targets. In the evening, the market will be driven by the data on the number of jobless claims in the USA.
July 9, 2014, Wednesday
The American exchange market closed another trade session in the red zone with no significant reasons, which might indicate that the market is overbought. Despite the fact that the season of corporate reports started rather positively, Wednesday trade in the Asian region proceeds in the red zone. Today evening the Fed’s minutes are to be posted and might affect the market. We assume that after a significant growth, the Russian market will be following the dynamics of the West, where we see a hint of correction.
July 8, 2014, Tuesday
European and American stock markets closed yesterday in the red zone and the futures for the stock indices are trading in the red zone. The Russian stocks are unlikely to climb under given circumstances, despite the positive, related to suspension of the military action at the East of Ukraine and macroeconomic data from China.
July 7, 2014, Monday
European indices were looking down after number on Germany' industrial production have been posted for May, showing decline of output in the EU' largest state by 1.8% month to month. Futures for the american indices were down following Europe, and trade at NYSE started with a gap down. Bashneft was among the growth leaders at Moscow stock exchange at the back of expectations of the shares getting included to the MSCI Russia index.
July 7, 2014, Monday
We expect the Russian market to open Monday near the Friday close levels, mainly in the red zone at the back of reduction at the majority of grounds and lack of any significant events as the US grounds were on vacation. The majority of ATP indices is looking down in course of Monday trade. Exchange indices of Europe have slightly reduced. US grounds were closed Friday.
July 4, 2014, Friday
Numbers posted in the evening on the number of jobs in non-agricultural segment confirmed growth in the US showed priory by the numbers posted by ADP. Unemployment for June reduced in US to 6.1%, which indicated raise of probability of a relatively soon switch to rates upping by Fed. Nevertheless, the American market continued upping on the threshold of the holiday. The US will not be trading tomorrow due to celebration of the Labor Day, thus the Russian market will be driven by the events in Ukraine.
July 3, 2014, Thursday
As we expected the investors were waiting for some news after a confident growth and on the threshold of the macroeconomic stats release. Trade in the US closed with slight adding on the major exchange indices in turns of low volatility. Exchange market of the Asian Region also shows mixed dynamics, even despite the fact that the posted PMI composite by HSBC in China indicated maximum growth of activity in the state for the recent 15 months.
July 2, 2014, Wednesday
We expect Russian market to open Wednesday close to the previous close levels, mainly in the green zone and during the day the market might bounce to 1485-1490 points at MICEX. Geopolitical issue still is the major risk of the day. In case the problem does not get solved in Ukraine in the nearest future, USA will go for introduction of new sanctions that the state has prepared already.
July 1, 2014, Tuesday
Monday, the ceasefire term between Kiev and DPR has ended same as the ultimatum of the US and EU against Russia demanding action in the favor of official Kiev has expired yesterday. From the news outlook, no activity indicated on behalf of Russia. Investors are forced to guess whether the sanctions against Russia are to be bad or easy. We suppose that sanctions will not be direct – like prohibitions of import of Russian products. Likely the restrictions involve delivery of some technologies or equipment to Russia, which might make some effect in the future.
June 30, 2014, Monday
Friday the western grounds closed with light adding. Asian exchange grounds are climbing a bit this morning. Generally, the foreign background early this week is mildly negative. We expect that Monday will be mainly mixed while waiting for the end of the ceasefire term at the East of Ukraine and the reaction of the West.
June 27, 2014, Friday
Weekly jobless claims were released in the US, along with the individual income – both in line with targets. Nevertheless, the trade in US opened looking down, having pulled the other global grounds. Tomorrow that Russian market will be driven by the news from the summit in Brussels – association agreement is projected to be signed with Moldavia and Georgia, and an economic part of the agreement on association with Ukraine. After that the summit participants will turn to discussing the situation in Ukraine, sanctions against Russia and the energy security and rising the employment and economic growth estimates in the Eurozone.
June 25, 2014, Wednesday
Data on the consumers' confidence and new construction sale posted in the evening (both outperformed targets) indicated further improvement of the situation in the American economy, but the market reacted likely negative – strong data is in the favor of the soon cut of QE and switching to the process of Fed’ rates upping – yesterday’s statement by the head of FRB of Philadelphia Charles Plosser on the rates possibly being upped in 3Q 2014 proves given idea.
June 23, 2014, Monday
Brent oil futures’s prices grew up to 115.2 USD having exceeded an emotional level of 115 USD. Trade in Europe and Asia was also positive last Friday. Generally, the foreign background is mildly positive for the Russian market. Moreover, no significant news, negative for Russia, came out about Ukraine. Friday after the trade open, Russian indices continued slipping down at the back of the escalation of the situation at the east of Ukraine. After messages came out that funds directed to investing in the Russian shares, have indicates inflow of assets in June, MICEX index won back the morning share of drop.
June 20, 2014, Friday
Peter Poroshenko having announced his peace-making plan on the situation at the East of Ukraine, which provides for significant compromises to militias, might mean the coming end of crisis. Currently, when the representatives of G7 threat with expansion of sanctions to the economy of Russia, any signs of tension easing in Ukraine lead to growth of the Russian stocks’ quotes. However, rise of military activity of the Ukrainian army near Slavyansk and the relocation of the Russian army to the zones bordering with Ukraine threats with a significant rise of tension.
June 19, 2014, Thursday
Today the Russian market will be driven by the reaction of the global markets to the results of the Fed’ session. As expected, the QE program was cut by 10 bn RUR down to 35 bn USD, cut will start from early July. Fed announced that the economy continued recovering by mild rates – the GDP growth target for 2014 has been downgraded from 2.3% to 2.1%, at that the targets for 2015-2016 have been upped from 3% to 3.2% and 2.5-3% respectively.
June 17, 2014, Tuesday
The Russian exchange market went sideways after a month and a half growth, consolidating at the level 1,480-1,500 points. At that the possibility of the resistance level at 1500 at MICEX will unlikely be passed. Shares of Mechel went 7.5% due to news on reduction of debt load of the company at the expense of 215 bn RUR given by creditors. Stats on the US were mixed. Inflation in US continued growing. Monthly change of the consumer prices formed 0.4% instead of 0.2% target; in annual terms - 2.1% vs 2%.
June 17, 2014, Tuesday
We expect that today the Russian stock market opens within the range of 1 490-1 500 points, but during the day it will not show any single trend and the trade is likely to enter the red zone. We suppose that this week the Russian shares will be supported by high oil prices at the back of the conflict in Iraq. However, the main negative factor for the Russian exchange market is formed by uncertainty between Russia and Ukraine on the gas issue. As for the major events of today, June 17, we might mention the following: the registers of stockholders that are to collect dividends are to be closed in Sberbank, Norilsk Nickel and Novolipetsk metal company.
June 16, 2014, Monday
Political tension rose within the weekend due to significant escalation of the conflict in Ukraine. Under current conditions, we expect quotes to underperform at Moscow exchange and the export-directed industries’ stocks are to be the top losers
June 9, 2014, Monday
We suppose that today the domestic stock exchange will not show any single dynamics and likely by the middle of the day it relocates to the red zone. Mainly the markets will be focused on the three-party meeting of the member of European Commission on Energy Gunter Oettinger, minister of energy of RF Alexander Novak and minister of Energy of Ukraine Yuri Prodan on matters of energy preparedness at 7:00 (9:00 pm MSK) in Brussels initiated by the European Commission.
June 2, 2014, Monday
Friday the Russian shares were losing in price following the reduction of European indices, futures for the American stock indices and Brent oil. By the trade close at Moscow market, consumers’ confidence index (81.9 points) was posted in the US, which turned out to underperform targets (82.5 points) and April value (84.1 points). However, trade at NYSE closed in the green zone – S&P 500 grew 0.18%. The Russian shares will likely be winning back given growth today. Partial payment of the debt for gas by Naftogaz decreased the tension in Russian-Ukrainian relations – possibly that becomes a key positive factor for the trade at Moscow exchange market early this week.
May 28, 2014, Wednesday
The Russian exchange market showed mild growth on Wednesday, having partially won back tuesday loss. Note, that the factor of instability at the east of Ukraine is gradually losing its value for the domestic market. The shares of Inter RAO (+8%) seem to be better than the market, while the volume of deals exceed the weighted average volume of trade. Probably the investors started gradually returning back to the shares, not into RAO but the other energy names too, which have recovered less than early March.
May 28, 2014, Wednesday
We assume that the uncertain situation in Ukraine and decision on the “gas matters” still form the key factors at the market on Wednesday. Sum news background forms suppositions for progress of the downward correction. We believe that tomorrow the Russian market does not show any single trend at the open and is likely to stay in the red zone. Overnight the exchange indices in the US showed growth. Futures for the American indices are trading positively. Oil and precious metals are experiencing pressure.
May 27, 2014, Tuesday
We suppose that the current week will be relatively calm. Consumers’ confidence index Conference Board will be posted today. Revised estimation of the GDP of the US for 1Q 2014 will be releases on Thursday. Election in the European Parliament was an important event. We expect that in case the market opens at the back of no new negative, the Russian stocks likely keep their positive dynamics. However, after a long-term growth the participants will be looking for a proper moment to take out profits.
May 26, 2014, Monday
Today the markets will be winning back the result of election in Ukraine and European Parliament. Poroshenko winning in the first round of the presidential election in Ukraine cancels a share of risks, which might serve as a reason of growth at the Russian market. The share of right wing and the euro skeptics in Euro Parliament indicates rise of possibilities of the budget policy of EU, which might serve as a reason of buying at the European Grounds.
May 23, 2014, Friday
ECB Noyer: Reiterates Euro Zone recovery remains fragile with growth expected to resume gradually. Teva and Active Biotech to Continue with the Development of Nerventra(Laquinimod) for Multiple Sclerosis Following Confirmation of negative CHMP Opinion. Norges Bank Gov Olsen: Reiterates monetary policy based on reaching inflation target over time. Russia Central Bank gov Nabiullina: Russia cannot support growth via its monetary policy; inflation risks are quite serious at this time
May 23, 2014, Friday
We expect mild quotes reduction at the Russian stock market: the course and results of elections in the Ukraine might make the key impact on the sentiment at the Russian financial sector, therefore, the traders will be trying to take out their profits
May 22, 2014, Thursday
Mild growth of quotes in Europe and the US, oil futures for Brent indicate positive expectations of the investors. Given lets us hope that the Russian stock market climbs up on Thursday.
May 15, 2014, Thursday
We expect the Russian market to open mostly in the green zone, but during the day the market is unlikely to show any single trend and possibly corrects by the middle of the day. We suppose that the most likely scenario of switching to a single share is conducting an additional emission of Volzhskaya TGK and conversion of the shares of other assets into the shares of the additional emission.
May 14, 2014, Wednesday
Releases of data on consumers’ price index in Germany and producers’ price index in the US are scheduled for today. Negative data on retail sale in the US graded growth at the American market by the time of trade close in the US, which would reflect on the dynamics of the Russian market today.
May 7, 2014, Wednesday
America closed showing major indices looking down under 1%, shares within nearly all sectors were for sale. The most reduction indicated the stocks of internet companies and the companies involved in the financial sector. We assume that the selloff at the US exchange grounds will have the key value for the Russian market open on Wednesday. We assume that the most probable range of the MICEX motion today forms 1,315-1,300 points.
May 6, 2014, Tuesday
Business activity index non-manufacturing, posted overnight in the US, appeared to be significantly above targets and allowed the American market to close in the green zone. This morning the Russian market will probably climb slightly up, winning back the positive data on the American economy, business activity index will be posted in UE at daytime and the retail selling and trade balance of the US might pour optimism to the investors’ sentiment in the evening.
April 21, 2014, Monday
Today we expect no significant releases of macrostats. The risks that inspiration over the results in Geneva fades soon is high, as the activists at South-East Ukraine still refuse to leave the lodged administrative buildings. Moreover, today the weekend continues at London and Berlin Exchange Grounds.
April 3, 2014, Thursday
The exchange indices of the Asian-Pacific Region (APR) are climbing Thursday for the seventh day straight, showing the most positive rally from early 2014. Upping is supported by the data from the labor market of the US and the plans of China relating the new stimulation measures. The authorities of China presented Wednesday the measures of supporting economic growth, which include rising spending on the development of railways’ infrastructure and tax benefits.
March 26, 2014, Wednesday
The Russian shares continued climbing today under pressure of the results of tuesday trade. The negative effect of forecast downgrade on ratings turned out to be of a short-term nature. The summit of G7 started this week, and the main subject of the Agenda was the possibility of new restrictions against Russia. Possibly we hear some new negative statements within the nearest days to be related to the solving of the Crimea issues. However, it currently gets clear that the matter of restrictions is less up-to-date and no longer in focus.
March 24, 2014, Monday
From today morning the Asian grounds are upping – despite the reduction, HSBC PMI index in production sector of China has been estimated positively. The Russian market today might partially win back a share of loss of Friday – no new restrictions were introduced during the week-end, so investors might get a clearer idea of threats of the restrictions introduced earlier.