January 26, 2015, Monday
The results of parliament election in Greece and the winners’ comments regarding their desire to execute liabilities of Greece to the EU and IMF will be a strong driver for the markets today. SIRIZA having won the elections provides for new complications for the European Union as the head of the party had already stated that Greece would not be keeping up the hard budget policy that IMF and EU made it do earlier. The threat of Greece exit the EZ will be pressuring the financial markets. Escalation of the situation in Ukraine will pressure the Russian market.
January 21, 2015, Wednesday
Talks on Ukraine are to take place in Berlin today. Results of these talks might turn into a strong driver for the Russian market. According to the messages in Vedomosti, the chairman of the supervisory council of “Energy Producers Council board” wrote a letter to the Energy Minister describing the possible risks for the generation companies related to worsening of the economic conjuncture in the state and in particular, related to the increased interest rates on credits.
January 20, 2015, Tuesday
Delay of announcement of the sovereign rating of Russia by S&P agency allowed the ruble MICEX index to reach maximum estimate since March 2012. However, investors’ optimism has faded by the end of the day. Agreement of the EU authorities to preserve the current sanctions policy against Russia was the major factor. Given agreement has been made in course of the session of the EU Council for foreign affairs.
January 19, 2015, Monday
Correction of the oil prices supported resumed growth of the Russian exchange indices on Friday. Additionally, MICEX grew 1.8% and formed 1.591.43 points and the RTS index went up to 769.8 points. Monday the US markets are closed due to celebration of a national holiday – Martin Luther King Day. Trade activity is likely to be reduced. However, the following negative factors might affect the course of trade: escalation of a military conflict at the South-East of Ukraine and waiting for the decision of the S&P agency’s decision regarding the sovereign rating of Russia (Friday night the agency has announced that the decision would be made until the end of January).
January 16, 2015, Friday
Favorable foreign background allowed the Russian exchange market show positive dynamics today. Oil price having corrected upwards, accompanied by the interest rate cut by the CB of India provided confidence to the Asian investors, which turned into the positive trigger for the Russian exchange market in the morning. Rise of the futures for the American exchange indices, which closed negative overnight, was an extra positive factor.
January 15, 2015, Thursday
Today, Mario Draghi gave an interview to the Germany newspaper “Die Zeit” stating the Central Bank being ready to fulfil the targets set earlier. The market might take that statement as an increased probability of QE to be launched in Europe. The given factor will be extremely significant on the threshold of the ECB session to be held on January 22. However, the given statement did not help the European market indices that closed the trade session in the deep red.
January 14, 2015, Wednesday
We assume that at the open today, the Russian exchange indices proceed with mixed dynamics, following Tuesday trends. A mild volume of macroeconomic events is expected today that might be capable of affecting the course of trade. Numbers on the industrial production in the EZ for November are to be represented at 1:00 pm MSK. The given estimate is expected to be unchanged after a 0.1% rise for the previous month. At 4:30 pm MSK the dynamics of retail selling would be announced in the US for December.
December 23, 2014, Tuesday
We assume the Russian grounds will be mixed at the trade session Tuesday morning. Moreover, we suppose increased volatility is here to stay. According to the statement by the Oil Minister of Saudi Arabia Ali A-Naimi, OPEC will not cut production of the oil even if the oil price drop down to 20 USD per barrel.
December 19, 2014, Friday
Western market indices closed their sessions with confident growth. Asian indices showed upside dynamics from Friday morning. The oil fixated overnight above 61.5 USD per bbl, and as expected, it once again went below 60 USD. We assume that Friday the Russian market’s dynamics will depend on the foreign background, and the intention of the investors to buy the slipped stocks of the Russian companies at cheap prices.
December 18, 2014, Thursday
Fed session results were posted at night. The regulator did not include the phrase about “a significant period of time”, but promised to keep its monetary policy unchanged. The regulator believed that decreasing oil prices would support the American economy; therefore, in 2015 the majority of members of the committee expect the key rate to be increased. Inflation data for November was posted in the US on Wednesday. CPI dropped in annual terms from 1.7% to 1.3%. The situation at the labor market would be improving through 2015.
December 17, 2014, Wednesday
At the trade open on Thursday, the foreign background for the Russian market was mixed. However, we assume that the most attractive names might bounce upwards. That would be the exporters and the companies with low debt load.
December 16, 2014, Tuesday
Rate upping by CBR last night did not provide for the desired results – suspension of ruble rate drop. From the very open of the market, it showed an opposite effect, which was far greater then yesterday. Drop on a number of stocks was crucial, followed by trade suspension on the stocks. In the afternoon, a number of investors preferred entering the most attractive stocks: Norilsk Nickel, PhosAgro, Uralkaliy, NLMK and Severstal – the companies-exporters and the ones with not bad dividend histories.
December 12, 2014, Friday
We assume that today the Russian market tries for 800 points at RTS at the back of oil and ruble slip downwards. The placement likely had a non-market nature, as the yield of the bonds turned out to be below the OFZ curve. Evidently the state banks bought the issue accounting on further put up in CBR. The loan actually does not lead to growth of the debt load of Rosneft: Rosneft is to settle 6.9 bn USD for a bridge-credit, attracted for buying TNK-BP on December 21 and 7.3 bn USD for another bridge-credit are to be paid on February 13, 2015.
December 11, 2014, Thursday
The Russian market suspended growth as OPEC posted its projections regarding the oil price – according to the projections of the cartel, the oil demand would form 28.92 mn bbl per day, which was 1.15 mn bbl below the daily output of the cartel for November and 300K bbl below the earlier-expected estimate. OPEC has also cut the sum forecast on the global demand of oil, which formed 92.26 mn bbl per day (1.2% adding vs the current year), which is 70K bbl below the previous target.
December 9, 2014, Tuesday
Western exchange indices closed looking down yesterday, and this morning the Asian grounds caught the trend. As we expected, the oil having passed the level of 67.5 USD per bbl, did not stop there and progressed down to 65.5 USD. The nearest target of the oil prices is the 64 USD level, after that the prices might get below 60 USD. In current terms, we see no optimism even for local correction after two recent sessions. Resulting from that, further reduction is possible, which might be in line with the new drop of ruble.
December 3, 2014, Wednesday
We assume that the domestic market will still be mixed at the open this morning following Tuesday trends. Fortum (Finland) exits the equity of TGK-1 where in owns a portfolio slightly larger than the blocking one (25%), and establishes a JV with Rosatom.
December 2, 2014, Tuesday
The Russian market opened positively on Tuesday not showing a single trend during the day at the back of the posted targets by Ministry of Economic Development, which announced expectations of recession in early 2015 that would last at least until the year 2016. Global grounds were looking good today. European exchange indices showed adding at the back of the statements on the upcoming mergers and acquisitions.
December 2, 2014, Tuesday
The negative data on holiday retail selling in the US was supported by the reduced PMI industrial, posted today. Growth rates of the American economy recovering appeared to be under question, especially considering the impact of the reduced oil prices for slate oil business – extraction of slate oil was the main driver of the economic growth and employment in the post 2008 crisis period. Rapid shrinking activity in the segment and risks of a wave of bankruptcies of the slate companies might drive the American economy to recession in 2015.
December 1, 2014, Monday
Refusal of OPEC to cut down the extraction volumes is a negative factor for the oil prices and sales of the oil companies. Given led to drop of the oil prices and reduction of ruble rate. However, the low price level preservation makes a significant number of projects of slate oil extraction unprofitable in the US, which would result in strengthening of the oil companies’ positions in the end.
November 25, 2014, Tuesday
Foreign background was neutral for the Russian market: yesterday NYSE closed in the green zone, while the futures for Brent oil showed reduction by 0.26% and formed 79.5 USD per barrel. Considering that the market participants indicated ruble strengthening, we expect interest growth in the Russian shares.
November 24, 2014, Monday
Monday morning major indices of Asian region are winning back the Friday news, following Europe and US. The oil quotes have corrected a bit, but still stand above 80 USD per barrel, which might be supportive for the Russian exchange market in the morning.
November 21, 2014, Friday
No serious macroeconomic releases are scheduled for tomorrow. Curtain effect on the Russian market’s dynamics might be provided by the statement by M.Draghi at European Bank Congress. Decreased speculative projections and technical factors indicate high probability of progressing strengthening of ruble in the mid-term prospect, which would be favorable for the dollar RTS index.
November 19, 2014, Wednesday
We expect the domestic stock market to continue its upside trend of Wednesday today. The foreign background developed in a relatively positive way. Exchange indices of Europe closed positively due to data on the business confidence index growth in Germany for the first time this year. US exchange indices closed looking good. Asian indices were mixed yesterday. The oil quotes were stable.
November 18, 2014, Tuesday
The Russian stock exchange showed an upside dynamics today. MICEX index reached 1524.58 points at the back of the oil prices correction and growth in Europe, caused by the positive stats. Confidence index in the economy of Germany by ZEW institute grew for November up to 11.5 points, while 0.5 points growth has been projected from the level -3.6 points for October.
November 18, 2014, Tuesday
Trade in the US was far more modest vs Europe resulting in the minimal adding by the end of the day. Asian region did not show a single trend. Japan traded in the green zone waiting for the delay in introduction of an unpopular tax from selling due to the threat of further progress of the recession in the state’s economy. At the meantime, the sentiment at China’s ground was manly negative due to released stat that indicated drop of investments in the economy of the state.
November 17, 2014, Monday
G20 summit did not introduce any positive changes in Russia and the West relations but once again showed extremely negative oratory of the western leaders regarding the role of Russia in the geopolitical crisis in Ukraine. Given sentiment might turn into a negative factor for the market participants, especially for large players. We assume that most likely the Russian market shows sideways dynamics on Monday while waiting for the decision of the European Foreign Affairs’ Ministers.
November 13, 2014, Thursday
We assume that at the open on Thursday the domestic market continued drifting at the levels of Wednesday close within the range of 1514-1519 points at MICEX index, but we assume that correction is available during the day. Today the dynamics of trade today will be affected by the data on change of the industrial production volume in China and the number pf the initial jobless claims in the US.
November 12, 2014, Wednesday
We assume that the Russian exchange ground is dead close to its annual highs might experience local correction as a share of the investors would prefer to fixated the gained profits for the two recent weeks of growth. Oil progressing downwards would be making a negative impact on the trade course. The end-of-week dynamics will be depending on the way investors act today. In case the 1500-1505 points line is passes at MICEX index, we might rather be expecting a change of trends.
November 11, 2014, Tuesday
Yesterday, the Russian shares showed confident quotes’ growth despite the fact that the CBR has announced that the authority projected stagnation of the economy in Russia in 2015. Probably the quotes’ growth has been related to the oratory of Elvira Nabiulina on the speculators being ready to limit their activity at the currency market and currency strengthening.
November 10, 2014, Monday
This week the market will respond to the signals of CBR – ruble is likely to climb slightly up this morning. APEC summit and G20 summit would both be the most important events next week. The Russian market will be watching Obama meeting Putin as the American president has earlier been announcing his plans of arranging talks with President Putin within the frames of the G20 meeting format.
November 7, 2014, Friday
We assume that the domestic market does not show any single trend early today and opens mostly in the red zone, however, we suppose the market might correct during the day. In course of the OPEC summit in Vienna, several representatives of the organization announced the terms of cutting quotas for oil extraction by OPEC.
November 6, 2014, Thursday
We assume the Russian market is just a step away from the psychologically important level of 1500 points at MICEX; therefore, we are unlikely to observe further clear upside trend. Likely the market goes sideways while waiting for new drivers. Thursday trade will proceed within the range of 1470-1500 points at MICEX.
November 5, 2014, Wednesday
Trade at the American and European markets closed in the red zone yesterday. Given established a negative background for the trade at Moscow market. Note the released purchasing managers’ index in China for October, which turned out to be slightly worse than the previous month’s value, indicating deceleration of the growth rates of the Chinese economy.
October 31, 2014, Friday
Gas talks ended in Brussels by signing papers, which definitely is in the favor of the Russian market today. CBR session is scheduled today and its results will make a serious effect on ruble dynamics – in case of a significant upping of the base rate, ruble might progress upwards. If not, we probably are to observe a new wave of Russian currency getting weaker.
October 30, 2014, Thursday
The European exchange indices were looking down today following the release of Fed’s decision yesterday. Final cut of the QE program was not a great surprise, but still the news was taken negatively. After the comments by the representatives of Fed that the regulator would be considering the global macroeconomic situation, there was hope that the Fed might take time with exit from QE. Data on the economic confidence in the EU did turn out to be slightly better than expected, but still did not make any significant impact on the mood of the investors.
October 30, 2014, Thursday
We expect that at the open of the domestic market today it shows no single trend. American exchange indices closed in the red zone Wednesday at the back of the results of another Fed session, where the present range of the basis interest rate 0-0.25% annually has been decided to be kept unchanged. Besides, Fed has finalized the QE program and has not changed the oratory on keeping the rate low during a significant amount of time after the QE had been ended.
October 29, 2014, Wednesday
Today the Russian stock exchange showed growth at the back of the oil price recovery and positive dynamics at the international grounds. American exchange indices are mixed at early Wednesday trade at the back of the positive macroeconomic stats. Consumers’ confidence index for October grew up to 94.5, which is the maximum for the past 7 years.
October 29, 2014, Wednesday
The attention of the market will be driven to the results of the gas talks, which are to take place in Brussels. In case the new contract is signed, the positive trend might be continued at the Russian market till 1440-1450 points at MICEX index.
October 28, 2014, Tuesday
Russian market showed 1.5% growth at MICEX index for Tuesday due to expectations of gas talks. Market participants expect success of another round of gas talks, which are scheduled for tomorrow and a new contract to be signed for gas delivery to Ukraine. A contract getting signed might be taken as another step towards decreased tension in the relations between Russia and Ukraine.
October 28, 2014, Tuesday
American and European grounds closed in the red zone yesterday. Given has been related to the results of the stress-tests conducted by the European service of banks supervision showed that 24 European banks out of 123 largest banks were vulnerable with sum deficit of capital amounting 24.6 bn USD. Messages on the business confidence index’ drop in Germany to minimal level for the recent half year made things look even more disappointing.