April 21, 2014, Monday
Today we expect no significant releases of macrostats. The risks that inspiration over the results in Geneva fades soon is high, as the activists at South-East Ukraine still refuse to leave the lodged administrative buildings. Moreover, today the weekend continues at London and Berlin Exchange Grounds.
April 3, 2014, Thursday
The exchange indices of the Asian-Pacific Region (APR) are climbing Thursday for the seventh day straight, showing the most positive rally from early 2014. Upping is supported by the data from the labor market of the US and the plans of China relating the new stimulation measures. The authorities of China presented Wednesday the measures of supporting economic growth, which include rising spending on the development of railways’ infrastructure and tax benefits.
March 26, 2014, Wednesday
The Russian shares continued climbing today under pressure of the results of tuesday trade. The negative effect of forecast downgrade on ratings turned out to be of a short-term nature. The summit of G7 started this week, and the main subject of the Agenda was the possibility of new restrictions against Russia. Possibly we hear some new negative statements within the nearest days to be related to the solving of the Crimea issues. However, it currently gets clear that the matter of restrictions is less up-to-date and no longer in focus.
March 24, 2014, Monday
From today morning the Asian grounds are upping – despite the reduction, HSBC PMI index in production sector of China has been estimated positively. The Russian market today might partially win back a share of loss of Friday – no new restrictions were introduced during the week-end, so investors might get a clearer idea of threats of the restrictions introduced earlier.
March 20, 2014, Thursday
Generally, the trade at the European and Russian markets was mildly negative today. The oratory of the chairman of Fed Janet Yellen on Fed possibly finalizing the program of bonds buyback (QE3) in half year and upping the base rates affected the sentiment. Statements and hints that Fed might cut the support to the US economy have been making the market shiver for more than a year now.
March 18, 2014, Tuesday
Slight de-escalation of tensions around Crimea will allow the investors to start looking at the macrostatas. Today the market might follow the stats on ZEW indices and the numbers on US real estate market. The oratory of Putin to the Council of Fedration might turn out to be a strong driver for the Russian market.
February 25, 2014, Tuesday
Monday the Russian indices generally showed flat dynamics at the back of neutral trade in Europe. Rise of dollar RTS index was affected by ruble fluctuations. As the trade closed at Moscow exchange, shares at American and European markets began rapid growth, which resulted in S&P 500 having added 0.62% and FTSE 100 – 0.41%. Given confident growth definitely provides for growth of indices at the Russian market today.
February 24, 2014, Monday
We assume that the most probable scenario at the open of the Russian market is consolidation to the level 1,480 at MICEX. Professional participants of the exchange market will be winning back the reduction of western indices friday.
February 21, 2014, Friday
Friday the Russian market showed sideways dynamics at the back of no macrostats releases and following the dynamics of the trade dynamics at the european grounds. The posted data on retail selling in January in the UK indicated 1.5% while the reduction was expected to form 1%. However, given data did not cause any serious negative at the markets as the stats released earlier did not provide for improvement of the economy in the EZ.
February 20, 2014, Thursday
The western grounds closed looking down yesterday, reacting to the weak stats on the new construction in the US. Volumes of construction in the US showed reduction of volumes by 16%. Given data might indicate that reduction of the scale of financing within the frames of QE3 has started affecting the real estate sector negatively.
February 19, 2014, Wednesday
Trade in the US closed mixed showing not much optimism. Given dynamics likely indicates that optimism of the investors faded and market got close to the “overbought” territory. We expect the Russian market to open at the level of Tuesday close – within the range of 1,500-1,505 bps at MICEX. Wednesday will be poor for news, therefore, likely the dynamics of global exchange indices does not change much.
February 14, 2014, Friday
Despite the fact that American indices were reducing at the open at the back of weak stats on retail sale, trade closed in the green zone. As we believed, the market reacted to the stats with reduction in a moment having no strong factors for correction. With the positive trade in Asia at the time of Russian market open, futures for American indices are showing reduction, therefore, we expect the Russian market to open at Thursday close level.
February 12, 2014, Wednesday
Yesterday’s statement by Yellen did not make any surprises – Fed promised to continue cutting QE by moderate rates, labor market was far from recovery. The statement that the base interest rate is to remain low even after unemployment reduced below 6.5% might be called positive.
February 4, 2014, Tuesday
American and European stock indices’ downswing on Monday right after a lot-worse-than-expected ISM manufacturing has been posted in the US for January 2014 does not leave a chance to the Russian stock market. However, possibly the reduction of RTS and MICEX indices is not large scaled as the futures for Dow Jones Indus. Avg and S&P 500 are already trading in the green zone, which might indicate improvement of the investors’ expectations at the stock markets.
February 3, 2014, Monday
The Russian exchange market opened in the green zone today within the frames of correction to the strong drop overnight. By 4:30 pm MSK the MICEX was already drifting within the range of the previous day 1,450-1,463.54 points at the back of the mixed dynamics of ruble prices of the majority of the most liquid stocks (1.1%).
February 3, 2014, Monday
As expected, the American exchange indices once again underperformed 0.65-0.95%. Data on PMI Manufacturing for January came out in China despite the trade grounds being closed due to celebration of Chinese New Year. Posted stats did match the targets, but indicated reduction of business activity for January (50.5 points vs 51). We expect the market to open at the level of Friday close with further consolidation within the range of 1,450-1,465 points.
January 30, 2014, Thursday
Negative results of stock trade in Europe and US this Wednesday at the back of cutting support volume within the frames of QE program determined clearly negative expectations on the Russian market: today the shares at Moscow market will be definitely winning back the given drop. At that, reduction of MICEX and RTS indices might overweight the reduction of Japanese NIKKEI (by 2.7%)
January 17, 2014, Friday
Shares of Rosneft gained leadership in growth after messages on 13% adding of gas extraction by the company above the earlier announced plan. Quotes of AvtoVAZ showed confident growth after Boo Anderson was assigned new president of the company as he was well experienced and respected in the automobile production industry. Shares of Raspadskaya grew after data on the production of met coal for 2013 was posted (12% growth yoy). Inter RAO added after Rosneftegas bought a share of Inter RAO from Russian Property.
January 15, 2014, Wednesday
Exchange indices of America and Asia are climbing today at the back of the release of stronger than expected estimates of retail sale in the US and increase of the targets for the global economy on behalf of the Global Bank. We assume that the news from the foreign markets will make a positive impact at the mood of the Russian stock market Wednesday and we suppose that the ground opens mainly in the green zone.
January 14, 2014, Tuesday
Russian market opened negatively at the back of drop at the global capital markets. Exchange grounds of America closed negatively Monday. ATP exchange indices are dropping Tuesday. Futures for US indices are negative. Oil lost in price after Iran agreed to cut its nuclear program in exchange for easing a share of restrictions. As of 10:10 MSK, MICEX index lost 1.11% to 1 460.8 points, RTS index reduced 1.3% to 1 384 points.
January 14, 2014, Tuesday
Positive flow of corporate news and industrial news set the mood at Moscow exchange yesterday. However, close of US trade in the red zone yesterday (S&P 500 lost 1.26%) and drop of the quotes at Asian markets do not leave any hope for progress of growth at the Russian market.
January 9, 2014, Thursday
Lacking clear dynamics at the global grounds, the Russian market will be trading around zero today morning. Volatility might rise in the afternoon due to results of the ECB session. Also we expect release of data on business climate in EU, industrial production in Germany and jobless claims in the US
December 20, 2013, Friday
We assume the domestic stock exchange opens in the red zone Friday following the global grounds’ dynamics. Sales for 9 months dropped 25% vs the similar period of the previous year and formed 2.47 bn USD.
December 9, 2013, Monday
Trade at global grounds today went mainly under the influence of Friday data on US unemployment. Despite the serious improvement of the unemployment estimates, the current estimate is significantly above the target levels of Fed – as a result, the investors currently prefer believing in QE not to be cut in December, and the sum improvement of the situation in the economy serves as a reason for the exchange indices growth.
December 6, 2013, Friday
The Russian market opened mixed this friday, mainly in the red zone following the dynamics of the foreign grounds. Exchange grounds in America closed negatively. S&P 500 (-1.2%) reduced to the minimal level within two weeks. The drop was provided by the positive stats in the US, which build up the probability of soon cut of QE. ?he European exchange indices reduced by the results of the fifth trade session straight, which is the longest non stop drop within the recent five months.
December 2, 2013, Monday
The current week will be profuse in macroeconomic stats. The posted PMI manufacturing index in China by HSBC showed upping to 50.8 vs the targeted 50.5 points, which will be supporting the Russian market at its open on Monday. PMI manufacturing index in Russia was the other positive surprise (50.5 vs 49.4 for the previous reported period), which gives an accelerating signal of recovery of the Russian economy.
November 29, 2013, Friday
The Russian exchange market is still reducing for the fourth session straight despite growth of the European and American markets. MICEX lost about 1.8% by the end of the week. Outflow of assets from funds that are specialized on Russia was the main reason of market drop. At that, the given process lasts for five weeks now. We assume that the Russian markets need a rather significant reason to recover after given slide. Macroeconomic stats indicating a recovery of the Russian economy might be such a reason.
November 21, 2013, Thursday
The Russian exchange market started trading Thursday in the red zone losing 0.8% at MICEX index (1,496.52 points) and more than 1.1% at RTS index (1,431.01 points). Unfavorable dynamics at global market of capital was the reason. Exchange grounds of America underperformed 0.36% at S&P 500 (1,781.37 points) and Nasdaq Composite – 0.26% (3,921.27 points) after the protocol of October session of Fed has been posted.
November 18, 2013, Monday
We see no grounds for any significant fluctuations of the market within the nearest days with absent macroeconomic stats. Therefore, we expect MICEX index to vary within 1,485-1,500 points. Markets currently need a clear strong impulse from the western grounds to start climbing.
November 14, 2013, Thursday
American exchange grounds closed with a significant outperforming of market indices, which most likely will be won back by the Russian ground too. We expect that MICEX index to return to 1,480-1,485 points after yesterday selloff.
November 13, 2013, Wednesday
While having no macroeconomic numbers releases Wednesday and investors being set mildly negative at the western markets, we expect no growth at the Russian exchange market. The market is most likely to move sideways within the range of 1,490-1,495 points at MICEX.
November 6, 2013, Wednesday
We assume that within the nearest days the market dynamics changes for the better. NOVATEK is to post its IAS report for 3Q today. 3Q 2013 net profit of company might outperform 3Q 2012 value by 10.4%.
October 31, 2013, Thursday
This morning the Russian market will be winning back the negative reaction of the american investors to the results of the FED session, which did not bring any surprises, but was the reason of taking out profits from the overheated american market.
October 30, 2013, Wednesday
Global grounds showed mild growth for the most part of the day on the threshold of the FED session. Investors got sure in delay of the QE program cutting at least until December. Mildly positive stats from Europe also supported improvement of investors sentiment – the estimate of unemployment in Germany (6.9%) turned out to be within the frames of expectations and Consumer Confidence index in EU (-14.5), business climate index in EU for October turned out to be better than expected.
October 30, 2013, Wednesday
Majority of financial markets’ participants suppose that weak macroeconomic data (initially the data on coming home sale in US) forces FED to continue the program of economic growth support. Russian stock market will be winning back positive from western markets.
October 29, 2013, Tuesday
Trade dynamics at European stock exchange established a positive background for the Russian market today. Yesterday’s statement by the heads of Bank of Spain was the major reason for sentiment improvement in eurozone – officials announced that economy of Spain was on the way to recovery and banks’ balanced improved significantly and European 4th state by the volume of GDP did not require attracting extra money assets to support the bank system.
October 29, 2013, Tuesday
Considering the fact that futures for European and American indices are trading in the red zone today and Asian indices indicate reduction, we expect the quotes to underperform at Moscow stock exchange.
October 24, 2013, Thursday
HSBC Flash PMI in China showed growth to 50.9 from 50.4, which is to support the Russian market in the morning. Outperforming futures for S&P 500 is also positive; therefore we forecast sideways dynamics with insignificant rise.
October 22, 2013, Tuesday
The Russian market underperformed in the morning and consolidated at the level of 1525-1536 points, despite growth of the European indices. Stock wise we might mention the notes of Uralkaliy, which were underperforming at the back of the statements by Vladimir Evtushenkov on unwillingness to buy the portfolio of Suleyman Kerimov due to overestimated price.
October 22, 2013, Tuesday
American indices closed yesterday with flat-headed growth: S&P 500 added 0.01%. Asian markets are trading near zero level today (Nikkei 225) or sliding down (Hang Sang). Given indicates mildly negative sentiment. Likely the Russian market trades in the red zone in the morning hours.