February 25, 2015, Wednesday
We assume the Russian market has currently no positive triggers capable of leading to a new upside trend. Investment program cut will generally make a positive impact on the monetary flow of FSK. However, in case the already launched projects are temporary closed, additional risks related to servicing given projects are rising.
February 20, 2015, Friday
The foreign background was not that positive at the global grounds yesterday. Asia traded mixed. Europe was still looking down due to alarms that Greece would not manage to reach any agreements with its creditors. American exchange indices were looking down within the early trade hours at the back of the statement by the representative of the Ministry of Finance of Germany on his intention to reject the claim of Greece on extending the term of financial bail.
February 19, 2015, Thursday
The protocol of the recent Fed session has been posted yesterday. The protocol showed that the majority of members spoke for preservation of the rates unchanged. The given protocol indicated that the rates upping in the US would be delayed for an uncertain term as fast upping of the rates might make a negative effect on the economy of the US due to a number of increased risks, such as dollar strengthening vs the other global currencies.
February 18, 2015, Wednesday
The oil being back to 62 USD per bbl level will provide support to the Russian market in the morning. Ruble is likely to continue getting stronger forming a good background for the notes of domestic demand companies, especially Sberbank will be worth notice. A new gas contract signed with Hungary is favorable for growth too: the new deal will replace the oil long-term contract that is to expire in December.
February 17, 2015, Tuesday
We assume that the geopolitical factor is to be the most important indicator for the Russian exchange market on Tuesday. Despite the fact that increased volume of export will directly reflect on the income of the “trading” segment of Inter RAO group, we do not expect the given sales to be highly marginal.
February 16, 2015, Monday
Russian exchange market started the week with correction down to 1,800 points at MICEX (-2.3%). Despite the positive statements on fulfillment of the ceasefire agreement at the East of Ukraine on behalf of the high-ranking representatives of EU, the situation in the region remained tense and that is the major factor of investors’ negative sentiment.
February 16, 2015, Monday
We assume the Russian market proceeds with a positive trend at the open on Monday at the back of conflict settlement that started in Ukraine on Saturday night. Note however that according to mass media, the parties involved in the conflict are facing difficulties in implication of some items of the agreement signed earlier in Minsk and that might turn into a reason of the military action resuming and might also affect volatility of Monday trade.
February 12, 2015, Thursday
The foreign background was mildly negative for the Russian market yesterday. Western grounds were looking down at the back of the expectations of the results of an urgent meeting of the EU Ministers of Finance on Greece. The oil continued correcting vs the recent two-week growth at the back of expectations of released data on reserves in the US and information about the progressing growth of extraction volumes in the US in January.
February 10, 2015, Tuesday
We suppose that the activity of the investors until the talks would be reduced and most likely, a share of investors would prefer fixating the profits gained last week in time of increased risks of possible extension of sanctions. Therefore, we might be expecting downside dynamics at the Russian market until the results of talks in Minsk are announced.
February 9, 2015, Monday
The long-waited meeting of Putin with Merkel and Olland, conducted Friday in Moscow did not bring any serious results yet, but lack of clearly negative results has been taken positively by the market. The oil quotes have suspended growth for now having reached serious resistance at the level of 59 USD per barrel of Brent. In case the oil manages to break through he given resistance, oil quotes are likely to climb and pull the Russian market upwards.
February 3, 2015, Tuesday
Today, the Russian market will mainly be driven by the oil price and ruble rate dynamics. We assume that oil strengthening is most likely explained by the oil prices having reached the bottom level, and in prospect that would allow ruble climb up to levels that would be more adequate. Under the current conditions, the notes with domestic demand would benefit more – note the utilities and telecommunications sectors.
January 30, 2015, Friday
We assume that the Russian stock market starts neutrally today according to Thursday close levels, but during the day, the trade will be mainly in the green zone. No clear negative on sanctions might lead to MICEX entering the positive territory at the end of the day. The session of CBR will be important today, however, we do not expect changes in the policy after the given session.
January 28, 2015, Wednesday
Fed posting results of its session will be the major event of Wednesday. However, the Russian market might experience the effect of it not earlier than Thursday. Within the recent months, a wide range of macroeconomic estimates indicates deceleration of the US economy recovery rates. Easing of the oratory of Fed regarding the prospects of the rates upping at the given background might be a reason of growth at the global exchange grounds after the results of the session are released.
January 26, 2015, Monday
The results of parliament election in Greece and the winners’ comments regarding their desire to execute liabilities of Greece to the EU and IMF will be a strong driver for the markets today. SIRIZA having won the elections provides for new complications for the European Union as the head of the party had already stated that Greece would not be keeping up the hard budget policy that IMF and EU made it do earlier. The threat of Greece exit the EZ will be pressuring the financial markets. Escalation of the situation in Ukraine will pressure the Russian market.
January 21, 2015, Wednesday
Talks on Ukraine are to take place in Berlin today. Results of these talks might turn into a strong driver for the Russian market. According to the messages in Vedomosti, the chairman of the supervisory council of “Energy Producers Council board” wrote a letter to the Energy Minister describing the possible risks for the generation companies related to worsening of the economic conjuncture in the state and in particular, related to the increased interest rates on credits.
January 20, 2015, Tuesday
Delay of announcement of the sovereign rating of Russia by S&P agency allowed the ruble MICEX index to reach maximum estimate since March 2012. However, investors’ optimism has faded by the end of the day. Agreement of the EU authorities to preserve the current sanctions policy against Russia was the major factor. Given agreement has been made in course of the session of the EU Council for foreign affairs.
January 19, 2015, Monday
Correction of the oil prices supported resumed growth of the Russian exchange indices on Friday. Additionally, MICEX grew 1.8% and formed 1.591.43 points and the RTS index went up to 769.8 points. Monday the US markets are closed due to celebration of a national holiday – Martin Luther King Day. Trade activity is likely to be reduced. However, the following negative factors might affect the course of trade: escalation of a military conflict at the South-East of Ukraine and waiting for the decision of the S&P agency’s decision regarding the sovereign rating of Russia (Friday night the agency has announced that the decision would be made until the end of January).
January 16, 2015, Friday
Favorable foreign background allowed the Russian exchange market show positive dynamics today. Oil price having corrected upwards, accompanied by the interest rate cut by the CB of India provided confidence to the Asian investors, which turned into the positive trigger for the Russian exchange market in the morning. Rise of the futures for the American exchange indices, which closed negative overnight, was an extra positive factor.
January 15, 2015, Thursday
Today, Mario Draghi gave an interview to the Germany newspaper “Die Zeit” stating the Central Bank being ready to fulfil the targets set earlier. The market might take that statement as an increased probability of QE to be launched in Europe. The given factor will be extremely significant on the threshold of the ECB session to be held on January 22. However, the given statement did not help the European market indices that closed the trade session in the deep red.
January 14, 2015, Wednesday
We assume that at the open today, the Russian exchange indices proceed with mixed dynamics, following Tuesday trends. A mild volume of macroeconomic events is expected today that might be capable of affecting the course of trade. Numbers on the industrial production in the EZ for November are to be represented at 1:00 pm MSK. The given estimate is expected to be unchanged after a 0.1% rise for the previous month. At 4:30 pm MSK the dynamics of retail selling would be announced in the US for December.
December 23, 2014, Tuesday
We assume the Russian grounds will be mixed at the trade session Tuesday morning. Moreover, we suppose increased volatility is here to stay. According to the statement by the Oil Minister of Saudi Arabia Ali A-Naimi, OPEC will not cut production of the oil even if the oil price drop down to 20 USD per barrel.
December 19, 2014, Friday
Western market indices closed their sessions with confident growth. Asian indices showed upside dynamics from Friday morning. The oil fixated overnight above 61.5 USD per bbl, and as expected, it once again went below 60 USD. We assume that Friday the Russian market’s dynamics will depend on the foreign background, and the intention of the investors to buy the slipped stocks of the Russian companies at cheap prices.
December 18, 2014, Thursday
Fed session results were posted at night. The regulator did not include the phrase about “a significant period of time”, but promised to keep its monetary policy unchanged. The regulator believed that decreasing oil prices would support the American economy; therefore, in 2015 the majority of members of the committee expect the key rate to be increased. Inflation data for November was posted in the US on Wednesday. CPI dropped in annual terms from 1.7% to 1.3%. The situation at the labor market would be improving through 2015.
December 17, 2014, Wednesday
At the trade open on Thursday, the foreign background for the Russian market was mixed. However, we assume that the most attractive names might bounce upwards. That would be the exporters and the companies with low debt load.
December 16, 2014, Tuesday
Rate upping by CBR last night did not provide for the desired results – suspension of ruble rate drop. From the very open of the market, it showed an opposite effect, which was far greater then yesterday. Drop on a number of stocks was crucial, followed by trade suspension on the stocks. In the afternoon, a number of investors preferred entering the most attractive stocks: Norilsk Nickel, PhosAgro, Uralkaliy, NLMK and Severstal – the companies-exporters and the ones with not bad dividend histories.
December 12, 2014, Friday
We assume that today the Russian market tries for 800 points at RTS at the back of oil and ruble slip downwards. The placement likely had a non-market nature, as the yield of the bonds turned out to be below the OFZ curve. Evidently the state banks bought the issue accounting on further put up in CBR. The loan actually does not lead to growth of the debt load of Rosneft: Rosneft is to settle 6.9 bn USD for a bridge-credit, attracted for buying TNK-BP on December 21 and 7.3 bn USD for another bridge-credit are to be paid on February 13, 2015.
December 11, 2014, Thursday
The Russian market suspended growth as OPEC posted its projections regarding the oil price – according to the projections of the cartel, the oil demand would form 28.92 mn bbl per day, which was 1.15 mn bbl below the daily output of the cartel for November and 300K bbl below the earlier-expected estimate. OPEC has also cut the sum forecast on the global demand of oil, which formed 92.26 mn bbl per day (1.2% adding vs the current year), which is 70K bbl below the previous target.
December 9, 2014, Tuesday
Western exchange indices closed looking down yesterday, and this morning the Asian grounds caught the trend. As we expected, the oil having passed the level of 67.5 USD per bbl, did not stop there and progressed down to 65.5 USD. The nearest target of the oil prices is the 64 USD level, after that the prices might get below 60 USD. In current terms, we see no optimism even for local correction after two recent sessions. Resulting from that, further reduction is possible, which might be in line with the new drop of ruble.
December 3, 2014, Wednesday
We assume that the domestic market will still be mixed at the open this morning following Tuesday trends. Fortum (Finland) exits the equity of TGK-1 where in owns a portfolio slightly larger than the blocking one (25%), and establishes a JV with Rosatom.
December 2, 2014, Tuesday
The Russian market opened positively on Tuesday not showing a single trend during the day at the back of the posted targets by Ministry of Economic Development, which announced expectations of recession in early 2015 that would last at least until the year 2016. Global grounds were looking good today. European exchange indices showed adding at the back of the statements on the upcoming mergers and acquisitions.
December 2, 2014, Tuesday
The negative data on holiday retail selling in the US was supported by the reduced PMI industrial, posted today. Growth rates of the American economy recovering appeared to be under question, especially considering the impact of the reduced oil prices for slate oil business – extraction of slate oil was the main driver of the economic growth and employment in the post 2008 crisis period. Rapid shrinking activity in the segment and risks of a wave of bankruptcies of the slate companies might drive the American economy to recession in 2015.
December 1, 2014, Monday
Refusal of OPEC to cut down the extraction volumes is a negative factor for the oil prices and sales of the oil companies. Given led to drop of the oil prices and reduction of ruble rate. However, the low price level preservation makes a significant number of projects of slate oil extraction unprofitable in the US, which would result in strengthening of the oil companies’ positions in the end.
November 25, 2014, Tuesday
Foreign background was neutral for the Russian market: yesterday NYSE closed in the green zone, while the futures for Brent oil showed reduction by 0.26% and formed 79.5 USD per barrel. Considering that the market participants indicated ruble strengthening, we expect interest growth in the Russian shares.
November 24, 2014, Monday
Monday morning major indices of Asian region are winning back the Friday news, following Europe and US. The oil quotes have corrected a bit, but still stand above 80 USD per barrel, which might be supportive for the Russian exchange market in the morning.
November 21, 2014, Friday
No serious macroeconomic releases are scheduled for tomorrow. Curtain effect on the Russian market’s dynamics might be provided by the statement by M.Draghi at European Bank Congress. Decreased speculative projections and technical factors indicate high probability of progressing strengthening of ruble in the mid-term prospect, which would be favorable for the dollar RTS index.
November 19, 2014, Wednesday
We expect the domestic stock market to continue its upside trend of Wednesday today. The foreign background developed in a relatively positive way. Exchange indices of Europe closed positively due to data on the business confidence index growth in Germany for the first time this year. US exchange indices closed looking good. Asian indices were mixed yesterday. The oil quotes were stable.
November 18, 2014, Tuesday
The Russian stock exchange showed an upside dynamics today. MICEX index reached 1524.58 points at the back of the oil prices correction and growth in Europe, caused by the positive stats. Confidence index in the economy of Germany by ZEW institute grew for November up to 11.5 points, while 0.5 points growth has been projected from the level -3.6 points for October.
November 18, 2014, Tuesday
Trade in the US was far more modest vs Europe resulting in the minimal adding by the end of the day. Asian region did not show a single trend. Japan traded in the green zone waiting for the delay in introduction of an unpopular tax from selling due to the threat of further progress of the recession in the state’s economy. At the meantime, the sentiment at China’s ground was manly negative due to released stat that indicated drop of investments in the economy of the state.
November 17, 2014, Monday
G20 summit did not introduce any positive changes in Russia and the West relations but once again showed extremely negative oratory of the western leaders regarding the role of Russia in the geopolitical crisis in Ukraine. Given sentiment might turn into a negative factor for the market participants, especially for large players. We assume that most likely the Russian market shows sideways dynamics on Monday while waiting for the decision of the European Foreign Affairs’ Ministers.
November 13, 2014, Thursday
We assume that at the open on Thursday the domestic market continued drifting at the levels of Wednesday close within the range of 1514-1519 points at MICEX index, but we assume that correction is available during the day. Today the dynamics of trade today will be affected by the data on change of the industrial production volume in China and the number pf the initial jobless claims in the US.