August 20, 2014, Wednesday
We expect the domestic market ti proceed with positive dynamics of Tuesday. An upside trend is indicated at the global markets. American exchange grounds showed growth yesterday, despite the mixed stats. Exchange ATP indices did not change much in course of Wednesday trade. European exchange indices grew yesterday basing on the European companies reports and the positive data on the real estate market in the US.
August 19, 2014, Tuesday
Today the Russian stock market went sideways after morning growth at the back of weakening of the geopolitical tension. Sunday Russia and Ukraine had reached an agreement on letting the humanitarian convoy into the South-East of Ukraine under control of representatives of the Red Cross. Additionally negotiation went in Berlin between the representatives of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, Germany, France and Ukraine dedicated to regulating the crisis in Ukraine.
August 19, 2014, Tuesday
Generally, the foreign background developed positively for the Russian market: markets in Europe and the US closed with growth yesterday, and the futures for stock indices were trading in the green zone. Besides, within the recent days, investors have not been receiving any shocking news from Ukraine or new threats of sanctions from the west, which is quite a positive factor for the Russian stocks.
August 18, 2014, Monday
Last week, domestic exchange market’ dynamics seemed to be positive after a four-week reduction, but it is not the proper time to talk about confident growth. We assume that at the back of no negative political news, the Russian exchange market opens in the green Monday, however, we suppose light correction might occur during the day.
August 15, 2014, Friday
Today Russian exchange market showed mixed dynamics. Exchange Asia closed positively on Friday. European exchange indices grew at the back of the expectations that ECB keeps the stimulation policy unchanged. European economy is getting visibly worse after introduction of sanctions and that might pressure the global grounds.
August 15, 2014, Friday
Problem in the relations of Russia and Ukraine with its western partners is the key factor for the Russian stock market. Easing of the tension on the sanctions matters and quite an easy response of Russia to given measures in the form of limiting import of foodstuffs has improved the sentiment of the investors. Given fact leaded to growth of RTS and MICEX indices, which lasted for five sessions straight
August 13, 2014, Wednesday
The foreign background for the trade open at the Russian market on Wednesday August 13 is mildly negative. We assume that the Russian market is mixed at the open and mostly in the red following the downtrend of the global grounds of the US and Europe. ATP exchange indices are mixed after output of weak data on new crediting in China, Chinese and Hong Kong indicators are standing in the red zone.
August 12, 2014, Tuesday
Russian stock market showed sideways dynamics at daytime after an insignificant growth at the open. At the back of weakening of the geopolitical tension, the majority of ATP exchange indices closed positively. Exchange grounds in Europe are looking down in course of trade on Tuesday following the shares of the oil and generation companies.
August 11, 2014, Monday
Western investors' sentiment was affected by the end of military training of the Russian air force and defense in Astrakhan Region. Massive relocation of air force last week closer to the border with Ukraine (the training ground wAs just 600 km away from the border of Ukraine) concerned the US and EU. At the back of the start of military training, the western mass media started active discussions on the rumor that Russia is preparing to invade Ukraine.
August 11, 2014, Monday
Today the dynamics of the Russian market is mainly determined by the decision of MSCI – index provider, as we expected, made a decision to keep VTB and Sberbank in its indices – both banks do not intend to conduct an additional emission in the nearest future and prohibition of operations for the western investors involves only the new shares. We assume that the given decision positive for banks would lead to growth of the stocks’ quotes of VTB and Sberbank today, which would turn into the reason of general growth at the Russian market.
August 8, 2014, Friday
We assume that in mid-term prospect the Russian market continues the downtrend at the back of uncertainty regarding consequences of the restricting measures on the matters of replacing import and lack of any positive events capable of breaking the negative trend. The foreign background from the global grounds does not provide for optimism either. Asian exchange indices are slipping Friday despite the outperforming stats on imports.
August 6, 2014, Wednesday
European and American stock indices are trading in the red zone today – the negative sentiment dominates the western stock indices. Mainly reduction of the European Indies is explained by weak macroeconomic data: industrial orders in Germany had unexpectedly reduced for June by 3.2% mom, while 0.9% mom growth was expected. At that, reduction of orders in the industry of Germany is indicated for the second month straight. Industry of Germany is the largest one in Europe; therefore, data on industrial production of the state is quite an important indicator of the state of European economy.
August 6, 2014, Wednesday
ISM non Manufacturing Composite and industrial orders’ numbers posted in the evening (both above targets) had just made the selloff at global grounds worse – good data on the American economy indicated increased probability of the soon tightening of the monetary policy of Fed. Yesterday’s drop of the American market and the negative dynamics of the Asian markets this morning will give grounds for the progress of the negative dynamics at the Russian market.
August 5, 2014, Tuesday
We expect that at the open today the Russian stock exchange shows no single trend and mainly opens in the green zone at the neutral background that developed by Tuesday morning, but we suppose a technical bounce is possible during the day. American grounds closed positively. Asian indices are mixed today. Futures for the S&P500 are reducing this morning by 0.07%, futures for Brent are insignificantly positive.
August 4, 2014, Monday
The Russian exchange market returned on Monday to Friday levels at the back of lacking significant events that might have affected the dynamics of the domestic market. The exchange ATP markets showed neutral sentiment today. The major European grounds traded mainly in the green after the Sunday announcement of the plan of rescuing the Portuguese Banco Espirito (SA), which might cost 4.9 bn RUR to the state. Trade at the futures market of the US also went in the green zone.
August 1, 2014, Friday
Positive data on Chinese PMI in manufacturing industry that have been showing maximum growth rates within the recent 2 years, did not support the markets – the Asian grounds are looking down following S&P 500 that was 2% down. The Russian market will also be under pressure in the morning. A number of important stats is expected on the US labor market- we expect detailed data on the number of jobs outside the agricultural industry and unemployment level.
July 31, 2014, Thursday
We assume that the Russian market will be waiting for the final variant of the sanctions. In case Sberbank is not included in the list, than the market will likely be happy to welcome given news. In the opposite case, the market might slip significantly in the moment.
July 30, 2014, Wednesday
Tuesday evening the EU and US have announced new sanctions against Russia. Sanctions of the EU will officially be signed by the EU Council today, and will be posted and valid from tomorrow. Despite that, the Russian exchange market showed mild adding on Wednesday. Given reaction might be related to the fact that more serious sanctions have been expected. Moreover, CBR announced its intention to support the Russian banks that suffered the sanctions, which added optimism to the market.
July 30, 2014, Wednesday
We assume that today the trade session will open in the red zone at the Russian market at the back of the EU Council having announced a new round of the limiting sanctions against Russia. Sanctions should involve the oil industry, defense industry, dual-use goods, and the Russian banks, which from now on have quite limited opportunities at the European market.
July 29, 2014, Tuesday
The usual “bet on Russia”, common and preferred stocks of Sberbank, are showing anticipating reduction of quotes. Normally, in times the investors and traders intend to bet on situation improvement in Russia, they buy Sberbank. Unfortunately, we currently observe the opposite process. Progressing reduction of Sberbank might indicate fundamentally negative re-estimation of the Russia’s economy prospects.
July 28, 2014, Monday
Risk of further expansion of the sanctions does preserve and the situation is up tight. We assume that the trend towards reduction of the Russian indices does not change this week. The big news of Monday is announcement of the decision arbitration court in Hague on Yukos case. The word is that the Dutch court admitted that Russia has violated the Energy Charter in Yukos case and has actually admitted expropriation of the oil company, having evaluated the loss at 50 bn USD. Decisions on expanding sanction might be made by EU.
July 18, 2014, Friday
We believe that the domestic stock market opens on Friday morning in the red and the downward trend will continue throughout the day. Primarily this will contribute to a serious drop in world sites on the negative news background on Malaysian Airlines plane crash in the Donetsk region, which killed 295 passengers.
July 17, 2014, Thursday
The Russian stock market was down today under the pressure of new sanctions, which the U.S. government entered against Rosneft, Novatek, Vnesheconombank and Gazprombank. New sanctions deprived of the possibility to receive U.S. loans more than 90 days, but does not prohibit American partners to support them with the other business relationships and carry out financial transactions.
July 14, 2014, Monday
We assume that the domestic stock market opening on Monday will not have a single dynamic, but mostly open in the green zone, continuing a positive trend with the global grounds, but during the day correction may be on the background of the upcoming dividend cutoffs LUKOIL, Gazprom, Surgut. Asia-Pacific stock indexes grow in the course of trading on Monday. European stock indexes rose slightly on Friday. U.S. stock indexes finished trading on Friday, a slight increase, which allowed them to significantly reduce the loss by the end of the past week.
July 11, 2014, Friday
Trading on the Russian stock market today are volatile, the reason for that served as external news background with global sites caused by concerns about the stability of the financial system in Portugal. This morning was published statements of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis that the regulator may raise interest rates sooner than expected. U.S. stocks fell in early trading on Friday amid published accounts of companies.
July 10, 2014, Thursday
Protocol of the Fed session posted yesterday evening, indicates that regulator still is for stimulation policy. Lack of signals of tightening the monetary policy was the reason for the American market to climb. Positive effect from American news will be partially compensated by the data on export from China, which appeared to underperform targets. In the evening, the market will be driven by the data on the number of jobless claims in the USA.
July 9, 2014, Wednesday
The American exchange market closed another trade session in the red zone with no significant reasons, which might indicate that the market is overbought. Despite the fact that the season of corporate reports started rather positively, Wednesday trade in the Asian region proceeds in the red zone. Today evening the Fed’s minutes are to be posted and might affect the market. We assume that after a significant growth, the Russian market will be following the dynamics of the West, where we see a hint of correction.
July 8, 2014, Tuesday
European and American stock markets closed yesterday in the red zone and the futures for the stock indices are trading in the red zone. The Russian stocks are unlikely to climb under given circumstances, despite the positive, related to suspension of the military action at the East of Ukraine and macroeconomic data from China.
July 7, 2014, Monday
European indices were looking down after number on Germany' industrial production have been posted for May, showing decline of output in the EU' largest state by 1.8% month to month. Futures for the american indices were down following Europe, and trade at NYSE started with a gap down. Bashneft was among the growth leaders at Moscow stock exchange at the back of expectations of the shares getting included to the MSCI Russia index.
July 7, 2014, Monday
We expect the Russian market to open Monday near the Friday close levels, mainly in the red zone at the back of reduction at the majority of grounds and lack of any significant events as the US grounds were on vacation. The majority of ATP indices is looking down in course of Monday trade. Exchange indices of Europe have slightly reduced. US grounds were closed Friday.
July 4, 2014, Friday
Numbers posted in the evening on the number of jobs in non-agricultural segment confirmed growth in the US showed priory by the numbers posted by ADP. Unemployment for June reduced in US to 6.1%, which indicated raise of probability of a relatively soon switch to rates upping by Fed. Nevertheless, the American market continued upping on the threshold of the holiday. The US will not be trading tomorrow due to celebration of the Labor Day, thus the Russian market will be driven by the events in Ukraine.
July 3, 2014, Thursday
As we expected the investors were waiting for some news after a confident growth and on the threshold of the macroeconomic stats release. Trade in the US closed with slight adding on the major exchange indices in turns of low volatility. Exchange market of the Asian Region also shows mixed dynamics, even despite the fact that the posted PMI composite by HSBC in China indicated maximum growth of activity in the state for the recent 15 months.
July 2, 2014, Wednesday
We expect Russian market to open Wednesday close to the previous close levels, mainly in the green zone and during the day the market might bounce to 1485-1490 points at MICEX. Geopolitical issue still is the major risk of the day. In case the problem does not get solved in Ukraine in the nearest future, USA will go for introduction of new sanctions that the state has prepared already.
July 1, 2014, Tuesday
Monday, the ceasefire term between Kiev and DPR has ended same as the ultimatum of the US and EU against Russia demanding action in the favor of official Kiev has expired yesterday. From the news outlook, no activity indicated on behalf of Russia. Investors are forced to guess whether the sanctions against Russia are to be bad or easy. We suppose that sanctions will not be direct – like prohibitions of import of Russian products. Likely the restrictions involve delivery of some technologies or equipment to Russia, which might make some effect in the future.
June 30, 2014, Monday
Friday the western grounds closed with light adding. Asian exchange grounds are climbing a bit this morning. Generally, the foreign background early this week is mildly negative. We expect that Monday will be mainly mixed while waiting for the end of the ceasefire term at the East of Ukraine and the reaction of the West.
June 27, 2014, Friday
Weekly jobless claims were released in the US, along with the individual income – both in line with targets. Nevertheless, the trade in US opened looking down, having pulled the other global grounds. Tomorrow that Russian market will be driven by the news from the summit in Brussels – association agreement is projected to be signed with Moldavia and Georgia, and an economic part of the agreement on association with Ukraine. After that the summit participants will turn to discussing the situation in Ukraine, sanctions against Russia and the energy security and rising the employment and economic growth estimates in the Eurozone.
June 25, 2014, Wednesday
Data on the consumers' confidence and new construction sale posted in the evening (both outperformed targets) indicated further improvement of the situation in the American economy, but the market reacted likely negative – strong data is in the favor of the soon cut of QE and switching to the process of Fed’ rates upping – yesterday’s statement by the head of FRB of Philadelphia Charles Plosser on the rates possibly being upped in 3Q 2014 proves given idea.
June 23, 2014, Monday
Brent oil futures’s prices grew up to 115.2 USD having exceeded an emotional level of 115 USD. Trade in Europe and Asia was also positive last Friday. Generally, the foreign background is mildly positive for the Russian market. Moreover, no significant news, negative for Russia, came out about Ukraine. Friday after the trade open, Russian indices continued slipping down at the back of the escalation of the situation at the east of Ukraine. After messages came out that funds directed to investing in the Russian shares, have indicates inflow of assets in June, MICEX index won back the morning share of drop.
June 20, 2014, Friday
Peter Poroshenko having announced his peace-making plan on the situation at the East of Ukraine, which provides for significant compromises to militias, might mean the coming end of crisis. Currently, when the representatives of G7 threat with expansion of sanctions to the economy of Russia, any signs of tension easing in Ukraine lead to growth of the Russian stocks’ quotes. However, rise of military activity of the Ukrainian army near Slavyansk and the relocation of the Russian army to the zones bordering with Ukraine threats with a significant rise of tension.
June 19, 2014, Thursday
Today the Russian market will be driven by the reaction of the global markets to the results of the Fed’ session. As expected, the QE program was cut by 10 bn RUR down to 35 bn USD, cut will start from early July. Fed announced that the economy continued recovering by mild rates – the GDP growth target for 2014 has been downgraded from 2.3% to 2.1%, at that the targets for 2015-2016 have been upped from 3% to 3.2% and 2.5-3% respectively.