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Russian stock market daily morning report (December 19, 2014, Friday)

December 19, 2014, Friday
Western market indices closed their sessions with confident growth. Asian indices showed upside dynamics from Friday morning. The oil fixated overnight above 61.5 USD per bbl, and as expected, it once again went below 60 USD. We assume that Friday the Russian market’s dynamics will depend on the foreign background, and the intention of the investors to buy the slipped stocks of the Russian companies at cheap prices.

Russian stock market daily morning report (December 18, 2014, Thursday)

December 18, 2014, Thursday
Fed session results were posted at night. The regulator did not include the phrase about “a significant period of time”, but promised to keep its monetary policy unchanged. The regulator believed that decreasing oil prices would support the American economy; therefore, in 2015 the majority of members of the committee expect the key rate to be increased. Inflation data for November was posted in the US on Wednesday. CPI dropped in annual terms from 1.7% to 1.3%. The situation at the labor market would be improving through 2015.

Russian stock market daily morning report (December 17, 2014, Wednesday)

December 17, 2014, Wednesday
At the trade open on Thursday, the foreign background for the Russian market was mixed. However, we assume that the most attractive names might bounce upwards. That would be the exporters and the companies with low debt load.

Russian stock market daily evening report (December 16, 2014, Tuesday)

December 16, 2014, Tuesday
Rate upping by CBR last night did not provide for the desired results – suspension of ruble rate drop. From the very open of the market, it showed an opposite effect, which was far greater then yesterday. Drop on a number of stocks was crucial, followed by trade suspension on the stocks. In the afternoon, a number of investors preferred entering the most attractive stocks: Norilsk Nickel, PhosAgro, Uralkaliy, NLMK and Severstal – the companies-exporters and the ones with not bad dividend histories.

Russian stock market daily morning report (December 12, 2014, Friday)

December 12, 2014, Friday
We assume that today the Russian market tries for 800 points at RTS at the back of oil and ruble slip downwards. The placement likely had a non-market nature, as the yield of the bonds turned out to be below the OFZ curve. Evidently the state banks bought the issue accounting on further put up in CBR. The loan actually does not lead to growth of the debt load of Rosneft: Rosneft is to settle 6.9 bn USD for a bridge-credit, attracted for buying TNK-BP on December 21 and 7.3 bn USD for another bridge-credit are to be paid on February 13, 2015.

Russian stock market daily morning report (December 11, 2014, Thursday)

December 11, 2014, Thursday
The Russian market suspended growth as OPEC posted its projections regarding the oil price – according to the projections of the cartel, the oil demand would form 28.92 mn bbl per day, which was 1.15 mn bbl below the daily output of the cartel for November and 300K bbl below the earlier-expected estimate. OPEC has also cut the sum forecast on the global demand of oil, which formed 92.26 mn bbl per day (1.2% adding vs the current year), which is 70K bbl below the previous target.

Russian stock market daily morning report (December 09, 2014, Tuesday)

December 9, 2014, Tuesday
Western exchange indices closed looking down yesterday, and this morning the Asian grounds caught the trend. As we expected, the oil having passed the level of 67.5 USD per bbl, did not stop there and progressed down to 65.5 USD. The nearest target of the oil prices is the 64 USD level, after that the prices might get below 60 USD. In current terms, we see no optimism even for local correction after two recent sessions. Resulting from that, further reduction is possible, which might be in line with the new drop of ruble.

Russian stock market daily morning report (December 03, 2014, Wednesday)

December 3, 2014, Wednesday
We assume that the domestic market will still be mixed at the open this morning following Tuesday trends. Fortum (Finland) exits the equity of TGK-1 where in owns a portfolio slightly larger than the blocking one (25%), and establishes a JV with Rosatom.

Russian stock market daily evening report (December 02, 2014, Tuesday)

December 2, 2014, Tuesday
The Russian market opened positively on Tuesday not showing a single trend during the day at the back of the posted targets by Ministry of Economic Development, which announced expectations of recession in early 2015 that would last at least until the year 2016. Global grounds were looking good today. European exchange indices showed adding at the back of the statements on the upcoming mergers and acquisitions.

Russian stock market daily morning report (December 02, 2014, Tuesday)

December 2, 2014, Tuesday
The negative data on holiday retail selling in the US was supported by the reduced PMI industrial, posted today. Growth rates of the American economy recovering appeared to be under question, especially considering the impact of the reduced oil prices for slate oil business – extraction of slate oil was the main driver of the economic growth and employment in the post 2008 crisis period. Rapid shrinking activity in the segment and risks of a wave of bankruptcies of the slate companies might drive the American economy to recession in 2015.

Russian stock market daily morning report (December 01, 2014, Monday)

December 1, 2014, Monday
Refusal of OPEC to cut down the extraction volumes is a negative factor for the oil prices and sales of the oil companies. Given led to drop of the oil prices and reduction of ruble rate. However, the low price level preservation makes a significant number of projects of slate oil extraction unprofitable in the US, which would result in strengthening of the oil companies’ positions in the end.

Russian stock market daily evening report (November 25, 2014, Tuesday)

November 25, 2014, Tuesday
Foreign background was neutral for the Russian market: yesterday NYSE closed in the green zone, while the futures for Brent oil showed reduction by 0.26% and formed 79.5 USD per barrel. Considering that the market participants indicated ruble strengthening, we expect interest growth in the Russian shares.

Russian stock market daily morning report (November 24, 2014, Monday)

November 24, 2014, Monday
Monday morning major indices of Asian region are winning back the Friday news, following Europe and US. The oil quotes have corrected a bit, but still stand above 80 USD per barrel, which might be supportive for the Russian exchange market in the morning.

Russian stock market daily morning report (November 21, 2014, Friday)

November 21, 2014, Friday
No serious macroeconomic releases are scheduled for tomorrow. Curtain effect on the Russian market’s dynamics might be provided by the statement by M.Draghi at European Bank Congress. Decreased speculative projections and technical factors indicate high probability of progressing strengthening of ruble in the mid-term prospect, which would be favorable for the dollar RTS index.

Russian stock market daily morning report (November 19, 2014, Wednesday)

November 19, 2014, Wednesday
We expect the domestic stock market to continue its upside trend of Wednesday today. The foreign background developed in a relatively positive way. Exchange indices of Europe closed positively due to data on the business confidence index growth in Germany for the first time this year. US exchange indices closed looking good. Asian indices were mixed yesterday. The oil quotes were stable.

Russian stock market daily evening report (November 18, 2014, Tuesday)

November 18, 2014, Tuesday
The Russian stock exchange showed an upside dynamics today. MICEX index reached 1524.58 points at the back of the oil prices correction and growth in Europe, caused by the positive stats. Confidence index in the economy of Germany by ZEW institute grew for November up to 11.5 points, while 0.5 points growth has been projected from the level -3.6 points for October.

Russian stock market daily morning report (November 18, 2014, Tuesday)

November 18, 2014, Tuesday
Trade in the US was far more modest vs Europe resulting in the minimal adding by the end of the day. Asian region did not show a single trend. Japan traded in the green zone waiting for the delay in introduction of an unpopular tax from selling due to the threat of further progress of the recession in the state’s economy. At the meantime, the sentiment at China’s ground was manly negative due to released stat that indicated drop of investments in the economy of the state.

Russian stock market daily morning report (November 17, 2014, Monday)

November 17, 2014, Monday
G20 summit did not introduce any positive changes in Russia and the West relations but once again showed extremely negative oratory of the western leaders regarding the role of Russia in the geopolitical crisis in Ukraine. Given sentiment might turn into a negative factor for the market participants, especially for large players. We assume that most likely the Russian market shows sideways dynamics on Monday while waiting for the decision of the European Foreign Affairs’ Ministers.

Russian stock market daily morning report (November 13, 2014, Thursday)

November 13, 2014, Thursday
We assume that at the open on Thursday the domestic market continued drifting at the levels of Wednesday close within the range of 1514-1519 points at MICEX index, but we assume that correction is available during the day. Today the dynamics of trade today will be affected by the data on change of the industrial production volume in China and the number pf the initial jobless claims in the US.

Russian stock market daily morning report (November 12, 2014, Wednesday)

November 12, 2014, Wednesday
We assume that the Russian exchange ground is dead close to its annual highs might experience local correction as a share of the investors would prefer to fixated the gained profits for the two recent weeks of growth. Oil progressing downwards would be making a negative impact on the trade course. The end-of-week dynamics will be depending on the way investors act today. In case the 1500-1505 points line is passes at MICEX index, we might rather be expecting a change of trends.

Russian stock market daily morning report (November 11, 2014, Tuesday)

November 11, 2014, Tuesday
Yesterday, the Russian shares showed confident quotes’ growth despite the fact that the CBR has announced that the authority projected stagnation of the economy in Russia in 2015. Probably the quotes’ growth has been related to the oratory of Elvira Nabiulina on the speculators being ready to limit their activity at the currency market and currency strengthening.

Russian stock market daily morning report (November 10, 2014, Monday)

November 10, 2014, Monday
This week the market will respond to the signals of CBR – ruble is likely to climb slightly up this morning. APEC summit and G20 summit would both be the most important events next week. The Russian market will be watching Obama meeting Putin as the American president has earlier been announcing his plans of arranging talks with President Putin within the frames of the G20 meeting format.

Russian stock market daily morning report (November 07, 2014, Friday)

November 7, 2014, Friday
We assume that the domestic market does not show any single trend early today and opens mostly in the red zone, however, we suppose the market might correct during the day. In course of the OPEC summit in Vienna, several representatives of the organization announced the terms of cutting quotas for oil extraction by OPEC.

Russian stock market daily morning report (November 06, 2014, Thursday)

November 6, 2014, Thursday
We assume the Russian market is just a step away from the psychologically important level of 1500 points at MICEX; therefore, we are unlikely to observe further clear upside trend. Likely the market goes sideways while waiting for new drivers. Thursday trade will proceed within the range of 1470-1500 points at MICEX.

Russian stock market daily morning report (November 05, 2014, Wednesday)

November 5, 2014, Wednesday
Trade at the American and European markets closed in the red zone yesterday. Given established a negative background for the trade at Moscow market. Note the released purchasing managers’ index in China for October, which turned out to be slightly worse than the previous month’s value, indicating deceleration of the growth rates of the Chinese economy.

Russian stock market daily morning report (October 31, 2014, Friday)

October 31, 2014, Friday
Gas talks ended in Brussels by signing papers, which definitely is in the favor of the Russian market today. CBR session is scheduled today and its results will make a serious effect on ruble dynamics – in case of a significant upping of the base rate, ruble might progress upwards. If not, we probably are to observe a new wave of Russian currency getting weaker.

Russian stock market daily evening report (October 30, 2014, Thursday)

October 30, 2014, Thursday
The European exchange indices were looking down today following the release of Fed’s decision yesterday. Final cut of the QE program was not a great surprise, but still the news was taken negatively. After the comments by the representatives of Fed that the regulator would be considering the global macroeconomic situation, there was hope that the Fed might take time with exit from QE. Data on the economic confidence in the EU did turn out to be slightly better than expected, but still did not make any significant impact on the mood of the investors.

Russian stock market daily morning report (October 30, 2014, Thursday)

October 30, 2014, Thursday
We expect that at the open of the domestic market today it shows no single trend. American exchange indices closed in the red zone Wednesday at the back of the results of another Fed session, where the present range of the basis interest rate 0-0.25% annually has been decided to be kept unchanged. Besides, Fed has finalized the QE program and has not changed the oratory on keeping the rate low during a significant amount of time after the QE had been ended.

Russian stock market daily evening report (October 29, 2014, Wednesday)

October 29, 2014, Wednesday
Today the Russian stock exchange showed growth at the back of the oil price recovery and positive dynamics at the international grounds. American exchange indices are mixed at early Wednesday trade at the back of the positive macroeconomic stats. Consumers’ confidence index for October grew up to 94.5, which is the maximum for the past 7 years.

Russian stock market daily morning report (October 29, 2014, Wednesday)

October 29, 2014, Wednesday
The attention of the market will be driven to the results of the gas talks, which are to take place in Brussels. In case the new contract is signed, the positive trend might be continued at the Russian market till 1440-1450 points at MICEX index.

Russian stock market daily evening report (September 28, 2014, Tuesday)

October 28, 2014, Tuesday
Russian market showed 1.5% growth at MICEX index for Tuesday due to expectations of gas talks. Market participants expect success of another round of gas talks, which are scheduled for tomorrow and a new contract to be signed for gas delivery to Ukraine. A contract getting signed might be taken as another step towards decreased tension in the relations between Russia and Ukraine.

Russian stock market daily morning report (October 28, 2014, Tuesday)

October 28, 2014, Tuesday
American and European grounds closed in the red zone yesterday. Given has been related to the results of the stress-tests conducted by the European service of banks supervision showed that 24 European banks out of 123 largest banks were vulnerable with sum deficit of capital amounting 24.6 bn USD. Messages on the business confidence index’ drop in Germany to minimal level for the recent half year made things look even more disappointing.

Russian stock market daily evening report (September 27, 2014, Monday)

October 27, 2014, Monday
Results of the stress-tests conducted by the European service of banks supervision showed that 24 European banks out of 123 largest banks were vulnerable with sum deficit of capital amounting 24.6 bn USD. Along with the messages on the business confidence index drop in Germany to minimal level for the recent half year, the European stock market was disappointed and turned to fixation of positions.

Russian stock market daily morning report (October 27, 2014, Monday)

October 27, 2014, Monday
A variety of factors provides for positive dynamics at the Russian market today. The sovereign rating of Russia formed by S&P remained unchanged (despite the still “negative” forecast). Election in Rada did happen and the final count of votes would be very important – win of Petr Poroshenko would be the most favorable scenario for Russia. At the meantime, the Peoples Front of Atsenyuk is likely to win the election – the Russian exchange market will be paying most attention to the oratory of Peoples Front then – whether it remains hostile after the election or not.

Russian stock market daily morning report (October 22, 2014, Wednesday)

October 22, 2014, Wednesday
We expect Russian stocks’ quotes growth following the Western grounds. European stock indices showed confident growth of quotes, same did the futures for the S&P 500 index, which clearly indicated domination of the positive expectations among the investors. Data on the growth rates of the industrial production in China for September turned out to outperform the projections.

Russian stock market daily morning report (October 21, 2014, Tuesday)

October 21, 2014, Tuesday
Despite the outperforming GDP and industrial production in China, the growth rates of the economy still turned out to be low, which will be pressuring the market. The news regarding gas talks might be most important for the Russian market – breakthrough in talks might give start to the mid-term upside trend at the Russian stock exchange. However, until the elections in Rada in Ukraine on October 26, the gas issues are unlikely to be solved.

Russian stock market daily morning report (October 16, 2014, Thursday)

October 16, 2014, Thursday
European indices were looking down during the day. Trade at NYSE started with a 2% gap downwards – the sentiment of the American investors worsened after the weak stats have been released on the retail selling in the US, however, later on a share of drop had been won back. Today the future for S&P 500 and FTSE 100 are trading in the green zone – given might indicate slight improvement of the sentiment of the investors.

Russian stock market daily morning report (October 15, 2014, Wednesday)

October 15, 2014, Wednesday
We assume that at the open today the domestic stock market will nor show a single trend, and mainly opens in the green zone, however, we assume it might correct during the day. The foreign background from international trade grounds is neutral. American exchange grounds closed mixed on Tuesday. Exchange grounds in Asia are climbing this Wednesday morning, Japanese market is climbing against the back of yen weakening vs US dollar.

Russian stock market daily evening report (October 13, 2014, Monday)

October 13, 2014, Monday
Today the Russian exchange market showed positive dynamics at the back of the improvement of the geopolitical background. As announced, Vladimir Putin orders to call off the Russian troops away from the borders with Ukraine, which were moved there earlier in course of training in Rostov Region. European stock exchange indices and the american futures showed light upside dynamics after Friday drop. ATP exchange indices closed the trade session with reduction today due to alarms of the weakening of the global economic growth.

Russian stock market daily morning report (October 13, 2014, Monday)

October 13, 2014, Monday
The debt market closed the week at minor tune following the worsened global demand of risk due to alarms about the EZ’ economy deceleration and oil prices drop. Likely the decrease of the global economic growth targets by ICF, released data on a significant drop of export from Germany triggered given fears. Investors were also alarmed by the started arguing on the measures of supporting the economic growth between the president of ECB Mario Draghi and the Minister of Finance of Germany Wolfgang Schäuble.